Ingevity Corporation research snapshot
NGVT AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Ingevity Corporation as a specialty chemicals company whose portfolio transformation is starting to show up in the numbers. The stock closed at $73.41 on August 3, 2026, up 0.41% from the July 31 close, with a market capitalization of about $2.52 billion. In the second quarter, sales excluding the divested Road Markings line grew over 5%, adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $115 million with margins at 36.6%, and adjusted EPS of $1.74 beat the consensus estimate of $1.33, prompting management to raise full year adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EPS, and free cash flow guidance. The company completed the Industrial Specialties and Road Markings divestitures, advanced a strategic process for Advanced Polymer Technologies, cut net leverage to about 2.5x adjusted EBITDA, and kept buying back shares. The AI score sits at 66 out of 100 with a rating of focused transformation gaining traction, because the business mix is higher quality than a year ago while the debt load, a Q2 2026 litigation settlement payment, and cyclical end markets still limit certainty. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$73.41 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.30 or 0.41% from the $73.11 July 31 close, after opening at $74.00 and trading in a session range of $73.21 to $75.97 on volume near 297,000 shares, with the daily history table confirming the same $73.41 close
Market cap
$2.52 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $73.41 price times about 34.38 million shares outstanding, with an enterprise value of about $3.66 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Focused transformation gaining traction
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, consolidating below the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ingevity produces activated carbon, specialty chemicals, and engineered polymers for automotive emission control, pavement, filtration, and industrial markets. The post-divestiture portfolio is more focused on high-margin Performance Materials, which delivered 53.6% EBITDA margins in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary carbon activation technology, regulatory certifications for automotive vapor canisters, long-standing customer relationships, and integrated manufacturing scale. These are defensible in niche markets but not wide, and the traditional automotive carbon business faces structural EV transition risk. | Medium |
| Management | CEO David Li and CFO Phil Platt are executing a portfolio transformation: completing the Industrial Specialties and Road Markings divestitures, advancing a strategic process for Advanced Polymer Technologies, cutting stranded costs, and repurchasing shares ahead of the $300 million commitment. The prior large impairments and a Q2 2026 litigation settlement still weigh on the record. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $1.16 billion. Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA rose 14% to $115 million with margins at 36.6%, adjusted EPS of $1.74 beat consensus, and full year guidance was raised, but GAAP free cash flow was negative in the quarter because of a litigation settlement payment. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The stock trades at about 48.6x trailing GAAP EPS, 13.4x forward earnings, 2.2x revenue, 9.7x EV/EBITDA, and 16.3x trailing free cash flow. The forward multiple is reasonable for the earnings power being built, while the trailing GAAP multiple reflects depressed GAAP earnings and a very small equity base. | Medium |
| Technical trend | NGVT closed at $73.41 on August 3, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $71.62 and its 200-day moving average near $66.25, roughly 7% below the 52-week high of $79.29. The stock has rallied about 82% over the last 52 weeks and is consolidating. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are the elevated debt load with net leverage near 2.5x adjusted EBITDA, litigation costs including the Q2 2026 settlement payment, softer North American auto production in the back half, asphalt price inflation from the Middle East conflict, cyclical pavement demand, and the EV transition for automotive activated carbon. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for filings, market data, Q2 2026 results, balance sheet math, and valuation ratios that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, the Q2 2026 earnings release, the Form 10-Q, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for forward return estimates because auto production, asphalt costs, litigation, and the Advanced Polymer Technologies sale process can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. NGVT has made real progress on portfolio quality and margins, but the leverage, litigation, and cyclical exposure require a margin of safety, and the stock already trades at a premium to its own recent valuation history. | Low-medium |
NGVT AI stock forecast
The NGVT AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $73.41 August 3, 2026 market close and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $5.24 with FY2027 near $6.01. The three scenarios are ranges, not price commitments. The bullish case requires adjusted EBITDA to stay near or above $400 million, the Advanced Polymer Technologies sale to add value, and filtration contracts to grow. The base case assumes the company lands inside its $380 million to $400 million adjusted EBITDA guidance. The bearish case assumes weaker auto production, elevated asphalt costs, or additional litigation outflows.
$90 to $110
More likely if adjusted EBITDA stays near or above $400 million, Performance Materials margins hold near the mid-50s on hybrid demand, filtration contracts grow from the first municipal PFAS win, the Advanced Polymer Technologies sale adds value, and leverage falls below 2.5x.
$70 to $88
More likely if the company lands inside its $380 million to $400 million adjusted EBITDA guidance with adjusted EPS near $5.24, the stock holds a forward multiple in the mid-to-high teens, and debt reduction continues at a steady pace.
$48 to $62
More likely if North American auto production falls sharply, asphalt cost inflation keeps delaying pavement projects, additional litigation payments emerge, the Advanced Polymer Technologies sale ends below expectations, or leverage moves back up.
NGVT AI technical analysis
NGVT AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads the stock in an uptrend that is consolidating. NGVT closed at $73.41 on August 3, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $71.62 and its 200-day moving average near $66.25 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, with a 5-day average near $72.36 and a 20-day average near $73.37 computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing history. The 52-week high of $79.29 sits about 7% overhead. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $73.41 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.30 or 0.41% from the $73.11 July 31 close after opening at $74.00 and trading in a session range of $73.21 to $75.97. |
| 5-day moving average | $72.36 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through August 3, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily history, just below the current price. |
| 20-day moving average | $73.37 | Computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily closing history through August 3, 2026, essentially at the current price, which signals a consolidation phase. |
| 50-day moving average | $71.62 | StockAnalysis.com statistics. The stock is trading above this average, consistent with a medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $66.25 | StockAnalysis.com statistics. Trading well above this average supports the longer-term uptrend from the $40.40 low. |
| Near support | $70 to $71 | The late July reaction lows near $70 and the 50-day moving average zone. A first pullback test for the uptrend. |
| Secondary support | $66 to $67 | The 200-day moving average area near $66.25 and the June lows. A sustained close below this zone would weaken the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $75 to $77 | The mid-July high zone where the stock stalled near $77 intraday. A break with volume could open the path to the 52-week high. |
| Major resistance | $79 to $80 | The 52-week high near $79.29. A clean breakout above $80 would confirm renewed upside momentum. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.30 | StockAnalysis.com statistics show RSI near 51.30, neutral after a strong 82% run over the last 52 weeks, so the move has room but is not stretched. |
| Volume | About 239,000 shares average | The 20-day average volume near 239,000 shares with a spike to 460,000 on the earnings reaction day suggests normal participation in the rally. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.17, moderate volatility | Position sizing should account for normal daily swings in a mid-cap specialty chemical stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $66, then $63 | A close below the 50-day area around $71.62 weakens the near-term bias. A break below the 200-day area around $66.25 would challenge the broader uptrend. |
NGVT AI trading strategy
The NGVT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels.
Wait for NGVT to hold above the $71 to $72 zone and then break above the $75 to $77 resistance area on above-average volume before treating the uptrend as confirmed. The 52-week high near $79.29 is the next objective.
A daily close back below the 50-day moving average near $71.62 should reduce confidence in the setup.
If NGVT pulls back toward the $66 to $67 zone around the 200-day moving average without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with the next earnings report, segment margin data, and debt reduction progress.
Do not average down because the stock has pulled back. Define maximum loss and review the leverage and litigation risks first.
Track quarterly adjusted EBITDA and margins by segment, net leverage, free cash flow excluding litigation payments, the Advanced Polymer Technologies sale process, and the pace of the $300 million buyback.
Lower the rating if adjusted EBITDA trends below the $380 million to $400 million guidance, if additional material litigation payments emerge, or if revenue stalls while debt stays elevated.
Investment research summary
Ingevity turns pine extracts, plant oils, and hardwood into activated carbon and specialty chemicals. Customers pay for emission control that meets regulatory standards, pavement that lasts longer and builds cooler, and filtration that removes PFAS from water.
The moat rests on proprietary carbon activation and refining technology, regulatory certifications for automotive vapor canisters, long-standing customer contracts, and scale in niche markets. A competitor would need years and large capital to replicate the integrated supply chain.
The thesis fails if automotive demand falls as EVs replace hybrids, asphalt cost inflation from the Middle East conflict keeps delaying pavement projects, litigation produces more settlement outflows, leverage becomes restrictive, or the Advanced Polymer Technologies sale ends in a result below expectations.
CEO David Li and CFO Phil Platt are running a portfolio transformation: divesting non-core businesses, cutting stranded costs, targeting $1 billion of deployable cash over two years, and returning capital through buybacks. The 2024 and 2025 impairments and the Q2 2026 litigation settlement show the execution risks of the prior strategy.
Ingevity sits in mature chemical markets with two structural tailwinds: the hybrid vehicle shift raises demand for higher-value carbon solutions, and tightening PFAS water rules open a new filtration market. The counter-trend is the long-term EV transition that gradually reduces traditional automotive carbon demand.
At about 13.4x forward earnings, 9.7x EV/EBITDA, and 16.3x trailing free cash flow, the stock prices in continued margin improvement and debt reduction. The equity base is tiny after years of impairments and buybacks, so the valuation math depends on earnings power rather than book value.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NGVT price | $73.41 close on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.52 billion at the August 3, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $3.66 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 34.38 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $1.16 billion, down 1.4% year over year | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $314.1 million, reported sales down 5% with growth across all three segments excluding the Road Markings divestiture | Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $115 million, up 14%, with margins at 36.6% | Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted EPS | $1.74 versus consensus of $1.33 | Q2 2026 earnings release (TheFly) | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA $380 million to $400 million, adjusted EPS $5.00 to $5.45, free cash flow $220 million to $245 million | Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Net debt and leverage | About $1.14 billion of net debt, with net leverage near 2.5x adjusted EBITDA | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP EPS | $1.51 on the statistics page and $1.39 on the financials page | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 48.63, forward PE 13.40, PS 2.18, EV/EBITDA 9.66, P/FCF 16.29 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $40.40 to $79.29 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages and RSI | 50-day near $71.62, 200-day near $66.25, RSI near 51.30 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy across 3 analysts with an average price target of $89 (BMO Buy $85, Wells Fargo Hold $75) | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
This NGVT AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong.
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