Bullish case
$110 to $145
More likely if monday.com sustains revenue growth above 20%, net dollar retention stabilizes above 110%, AI features drive upsell, and the market re-rates the stock toward a forward P/E of 25-30x.
monday.com Ltd. research snapshot
MNDY AI Stock Analysis
MNDY AI stock analysis currently reads monday.com Ltd. as a work management SaaS platform that has fallen roughly 72% from its 52-week high, compressing its valuation multiples significantly. At the July 12, 2026 cutoff, the quoted price was $82.47, market capitalization was about $3.54 billion, and the main question is whether the growth deceleration is priced in or the business faces structural headwinds. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$82.47
Market cap
$3.54 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Attractive valuation, slowing growth risk
Trend status
Deep pullback from highs, near 52-week low zone
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- B-level information richness. MNDY IPOed in June 2021, has moderate analyst coverage, public filings available, and active competitive discussion. Data gaps exist on detailed segment breakdowns and customer cohort retention trends.
- bias Check
- The AI bias risk is anchoring to the 52-week high of $296.93. The 72% decline may create a false value perception. Analysis separates the business quality from the stock price drawdown.
- ai Confidence
- Medium-high data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The compressed valuation offers a potential opportunity, but growth deceleration, competitive dynamics, and macro SaaS headwinds require first-party filings review and personal risk assessment.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MNDY sells a cloud-based Work OS that organizations use to build custom work management applications. Revenue is recurring subscription-based with strong gross margins around 89%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moderate moat from workflow embedding, template ecosystems, and brand presence. Switching costs exist but are lower than deeply integrated enterprise SaaS, with competition from Notion, Asana, ClickUp, and Atlassian. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founders Roy Mann and Eran Zinman have built from startup to $1.3B+ revenue with good capital allocation, including an active buyback program. Israeli tech leadership with long-term vision. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew roughly 30%+ in recent quarters, GAAP net income was $56M in Q1 2026 alone. FCF generation is strong at $248M TTM. Balance sheet is clean with $1.21B cash and modest debt. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | Forward P/E around 18x and P/S around 3.3x are compressed relative to history. The PEG ratio near 0.28 suggests the market prices in meaningful growth deceleration. The safety margin depends on whether growth stabilizes or continues slowing. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a deep downtrend from $296.93 to $82.47. It trades near the 52-week low of $57.50. A trend reversal is not yet confirmed. Use live moving averages, support, resistance, volume, and invalidation levels before acting. | Medium |
| Risk level | Medium-high. Key risks include growth deceleration, competitive pressure from Microsoft and Atlassian, Israel geopolitical exposure, SaaS multiple compression, and potential further downside if net dollar retention weakens. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high data confidence for financial metrics and qualitative mapping. Lower confidence for forward revenue growth trajectory and competitive positioning. | Medium-high |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The page provides a framework and scenarios, not a personalized buy or sell instruction. Position decisions require first-party filings, live chart data, and individual risk constraints. | Medium |
MNDY AI stock forecast
MNDY AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The MNDY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $82.47 quote rather than a point target. The bullish case requires evidence that growth re-accelerates or stabilizes above 20%; the base case assumes continued decoupling of revenue growth toward 15%; the bearish case assumes the competitive and macro headwinds intensify.
Base case
$65 to $105
More likely if revenue growth continues decelerating toward 12-18%, margins improve gradually, and the stock trades in a range reflecting modest growth at a reasonable price while investors await the next earnings evidence.
Bearish case
$35 to $60
More likely if growth falls below 10%, net dollar retention drops meaningfully, competitive losses to larger platforms accelerate, or broader SaaS valuation multiples contract further, and technical support below $57.50 breaks.
MNDY AI technical analysis
MNDY AI Technical Analysis
MNDY AI technical analysis starts from the $82.47 quote. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and live momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $82.47 | Current quote used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $57.50 to $68.00 | The 52-week low of $57.50 is a critical floor. The $65-68 zone may offer intermediate support from prior consolidation. |
| Near resistance | $95.00 to $110.00 | The $95-110 zone represents prior breakdown levels. A close above $110 would improve the short-term technical picture. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use current chart data before acting. The page does not fetch request-time market data. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart or broker data. |
| Momentum | Downtrend, not yet reversed | The stock is in a sustained downtrend. A momentum shift would require higher lows and volume confirmation. |
| Volume | Elevated on down days | Volume has been elevated during selloffs, which can indicate distribution. Watch for volume drying up on stabilization. |
| Volatility | High monitoring priority | Use position sizing that can tolerate wide daily movement for this ticker. |
| Invalidation | Close below $57.50 | A decisive close below the 52-week low would weaken the setup and open the path toward the bearish case range. |
MNDY AI trading strategy
MNDY AI Trading Strategy Framework
The MNDY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or news checks.
Trend-following setup
Wait for MNDY to establish a higher low above $70 and push through the $95-110 resistance zone with volume that confirms a trend change. A move above $110 would confirm the trend reversal.
A close below the support zone or a failed breakout should invalidate the setup. The 52-week low at $57.50 is the final invalidation level.
Mean-reversion setup
If MNDY approaches the $57.50-65 zone without a fundamental thesis break, compare price action with the next earnings, net dollar retention data, and competitive landscape updates.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a fresh review of the business risk. The stock can always go lower in a bear market for SaaS.
Fundamental monitor
Track the evidence that matters most for MNDY: revenue growth rate, net dollar retention, GAAP profitability trend, FCF generation, AI monetization progress, and competitive win-loss dynamics against Notion, Asana, and Atlassian.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven by headlines without matching financial evidence, or when net dollar retention drops below 105%.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
monday.com sells a cloud-based Work Operating System (Work OS) that replaces spreadsheets and fragmented tools with a visual platform for managing workflows, projects, CRM, development, and service operations. Customers pay for recurring subscriptions because the platform becomes embedded in daily team operations.
Moat
The moat is moderate and built from workflow embedding, a growing template ecosystem, brand recognition in the work management category, and a broad platform covering CRM, dev, and service. Switching costs are meaningful but not as deep as core enterprise systems like Salesforce or Workday.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if growth decelerates below 10%, larger competitors (Microsoft, Atlassian) absorb the work management category, AI commoditizes workflow automation, net dollar retention drops, or the Israel-based operations face geopolitical disruption.
Management
Co-founders Roy Mann and Eran Zinman have demonstrated strong execution from zero to $1.3B+ revenue. Capital allocation has been disciplined, including an active buyback program initiated in 2025. The key question is whether they can navigate the growth deceleration phase successfully.
Industry trend
The work management SaaS category continues to grow as organizations digitize operations. AI integration is creating new upsell opportunities. However, the category faces increasing competition from horizontal platforms like Microsoft, and macro pressure on enterprise software budgets.
Valuation and margin of safety
At $82.47 with forward P/E around 18x and P/S around 3.3x, MNDY trades at a significant discount to its history and SaaS peers. The valuation implies the market expects continued growth deceleration. The margin of safety is adequate if growth stabilizes but thin if the business faces structural headwinds.
Source-backed data
MNDY Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MNDY price | $82.47 | Yahoo Finance close price July 10, 2026 | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.54 billion per Yahoo Finance. Mechanically, 82.47 x implied shares yields ~$4.08B. | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | Approximately $1.3 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | $119.35 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.29 | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Levered FCF (TTM) | $248.48 million | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $1.21 billion | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Total debt/equity | 23.41% | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | ~17.86x | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | 3.30x | Yahoo Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation input status | EPS, cash, debt, revenue, and net income were cross-validated from Yahoo Finance. Full two-source statement checks still require second source. | Source gap disclosure | July 12, 2026 |
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This MNDY AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 12, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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