Mirum Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
MIRM AI stock analysis reads Mirum Pharmaceuticals as a commercial rare disease biotech with three approved medicines, fast growing product sales, high gross margins, and several pipeline catalysts, but it also flags a sharp pullback in the share price and an elevated valuation. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the stock traded at $105.43, down from the $130.00 July peak and the $122.13 level used on the prior page, with a market capitalization near $6.43 billion, verified as $105.43 times 60.98 million shares outstanding. The company reported Q1 2026 net product sales of $159.9 million, up about 43% from a year earlier, and raised its 2026 product sales guidance to $660 to $680 million. All 13 covering analysts rate it a Buy or Strong Buy with an average target near $146.50 and a range of $125 to $185. The analysis uses a scenario framework, not a price prediction. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$105.43
Market cap
$6.43 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Commercial rare disease biotech with strong sales growth but weakened momentum and a rich valuation
Trend status
Pullback from the $130 high, below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Mirum sells approved rare liver and genetic disease medicines with high gross margins and fast growing revenue, but it still runs GAAP losses and negative operating cash flow after a large one-time Q1 2026 charge. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from approved rare disease drugs, orphan drug designations, IBAT inhibitor know-how, specialized manufacturing and distribution, and deep physician relationships in hepatology, but it can be challenged by competitors or new mechanisms. | Medium |
| Management | Management has built a commercial organization, raised guidance, and advanced multiple pipeline programs. But the CEO sold about $2.5 million of stock on June 1, 2026 and the CFO sold about $610,000 on July 6, 2026, which warrants monitoring for insider conviction. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has grown from $336.9 million in FY2024 to $521.3 million in FY2025, and Q1 2026 net product sales of $159.9 million were up about 43% year over year. TTM GAAP net income of -$798.8 million includes a $726.3 million one-time IPR&D charge. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $105.43, P/S is about 11.3x TTM revenue of $569.6 million and roughly 9.3x the raised 2026 guidance midpoint. P/E is not useful while GAAP EPS is negative. The multiple prices in continued double digit growth and pipeline success. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock rallied from a $50.25 low to a $130.00 high in July, then pulled back to about $105.43, below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $116.79 and $109.50, with a 14-day RSI near 37 to 39. Use live moving averages, support, resistance, and volume data before acting. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk includes the August 5, 2026 Q2 earnings, the September 26, 2026 zilurgisertib PDUFA date, HDV program outcomes, competition for Livmarli, negative operating cash flow, insider selling, the May 2026 convertible offering, and an elevated short interest near 12% of shares. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for market data, revenue, analyst consensus, and insider filings. Lower for pipeline probability weighting and the exact path to GAAP profitability because detailed forward guidance beyond 2026 was not available from public sources. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. MIRM has approved products, growing revenue, and raised guidance, making it less speculative than pre-revenue biotechs, but GAAP losses, negative cash flow, insider selling, and biotech event risk limit high conviction conclusions. | Medium |
MIRM AI stock forecast
The MIRM AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges built from reported analyst targets, the raised 2026 revenue guidance, and operational trends, not a P/E model, because GAAP EPS is negative. The practical forecast relies on the pace of product sales growth, the zilurgisertib launch, HDV and volixibat pipeline catalysts, and the path to profitability.
$150 to $185
More likely if Q2 2026 earnings on August 5 beat expectations, product sales growth stays above 25%, the September 26, 2026 zilurgisertib PDUFA date passes with a launch, volixibat and HDV programs advance with positive data, and the stock re-rates toward the analyst high target of $185.
$125 to $150
More likely if revenue grows around 20% in line with the raised guidance, pipeline data is positive but not decisive, operating losses narrow, and the stock trades around the consensus analyst target of about $146.50 with normal biotech volatility.
$85 to $115
More likely if Q2 earnings disappoint, product sales growth slows, HDV or volixibat data misses, the zilurgisertib launch underwhelms given its ultra rare FOP market, insider selling continues, or the stock breaks below the $102.78 recent low and the 200-day moving average.
MIRM AI technical analysis
MIRM AI technical analysis starts from the $105.43 quote at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The stock rallied from a 52-week low of $50.25 to a 52-week high of $130.00 in early July, then pulled back to about $105.43, losing roughly 19% from the high. The price sits above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages near $102.86 and $92.66 but below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $116.79 and $109.50, with a 14-day RSI near 37 to 39 and a 14-day ADX near 24.7 showing a slowing trend. Live chart confirmation is needed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $105.43 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, compared with the $105.95 July 31 close and the $122.13 level on the prior page. |
| Near support | $102.78 to $103.50 | The $102.78 low from the August 3 session and the 100-day moving average near $102.86 form a first support zone. Treat as a planning area, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Next support | $92.51 to $92.66 | The 200-day moving average sits near $92.51 to $92.66, a natural longer term support if the pullback extends. |
| Near resistance | $108.43 to $109.50 | The 5-day moving average near $108.43 and the 50-day moving average near $109.50 form immediate overhead resistance. |
| Next resistance | $116.79 to $130.00 | The 20-day moving average near $116.79 is the next ceiling, then the $122 area and the 52-week high of $130.00. |
| 50-day moving average | $109.50 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $109.50 on August 3, 2026, with StockAnalysis near $109.37. Price is below this line. |
| 200-day moving average | $92.66 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $92.66 and StockAnalysis near $92.51, both below the current price. |
| Momentum | Weak after a 19% pullback | Price is below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages with a 14-day RSI near 37 to 39, showing negative short term momentum within a longer term uptrend. |
| Volume | Elevated on the pullback | Recent sessions showed above average volume, including 558,510 shares on the July 31 drop. The 20-day average is near 607,000 shares. |
| Volatility | High for a small cap biotech | The 14-day average true range is about $5.11 or 4.9% of price, and 14-day historic volatility is near 39%. Beta of 0.48 is low, but biotech event risk can cause sudden moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $102.78 | A decisive close below the $102.78 recent low would open the door to the $92 to $96 zone near the 200-day moving average. |
MIRM AI trading strategy
The MIRM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings, earnings, pipeline, or regulatory checks.
Wait for MIRM to reclaim the $108.43 to $109.50 zone with volume above the recent average, confirming that the pullback is a pause and buyers are returning. A move back above the 20-day average near $116.79 would strengthen the longer term uptrend signal.
A close below the $102.78 support zone, or a Q2 earnings report on August 5 with disappointing guidance, should invalidate the setup.
If MIRM holds the $102.78 to $103.50 support band without a fundamental thesis break, compare price action with the August 5, 2026 Q2 results, the September 26, 2026 zilurgisertib PDUFA date, and the latest insider trading activity before considering a rebound trade.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss and a review of whether the Q1 2026 one-time charge, negative operating cash flow, or insider selling signals a structural issue.
Track the evidence that matters most for Mirum: LIVMARLI and bile acid medicine revenue growth, 2026 guidance execution, zilurgisertib launch progress, volixibat and HDV program data, operating expense trends, cash position, and insider buying or selling patterns.
Reduce confidence when price moves are driven only by analyst upgrades without matching revenue, pipeline, or filing evidence.
Investment research summary
Mirum develops and commercializes medicines for rare liver and genetic diseases. Its approved products LIVMARLI, CHOLBAM, and CTEXLI generate fast growing product sales with high gross margins, funded by a deep pipeline including zilurgisertib, volixibat, and brelovitug.
The moat comes from approved rare disease therapies, orphan drug designations, regulatory exclusivity, IBAT inhibitor expertise, specialized manufacturing and distribution, and close physician relationships in hepatology, but it can be challenged by competitors or new mechanisms.
The thesis can fail if Livmarli faces new competition, HDV or volixibat programs miss, the zilurgisertib launch underwhelms in its ultra rare FOP market, revenue growth slows below guidance, the company fails to reach profitability before cash concerns arise, or insider selling continues.
Management has advanced from a development-stage company to a commercial organization with three approved products and raised 2026 guidance. However, CEO Chris Peetz sold about $2.5 million of stock on June 1, 2026 and CFO Eric Bjerkholt sold about $610,000 on July 6, 2026, which needs monitoring for conviction signals.
Rare liver and genetic disease treatment is a growing specialty with high unmet need, regulatory incentives (orphan drug status, priority review), and strong pricing power for approved therapies. However, clinical development remains high risk, ultra rare markets can be small, and HDV and FOP launches are unproven.
At $105.43, MIRM trades at about 11.3x TTM revenue and roughly 9.3x the raised 2026 guidance midpoint, with negative GAAP EPS and negative operating cash flow. The valuation implies confidence in continued double digit growth and pipeline progress. Margin of safety is thin if growth decelerates or the path to profitability extends significantly.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIRM price | $105.43 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.43 billion, verified as $105.43 x 60.98M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 60.98 million (60,981,227 as of May 1, 2026 per the 10-Q) | StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR Q1 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $569.61 million, period ended March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financials (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net product sales | $159.9 million, up about 43% year over year; 2026 guidance raised to $660-680 million | Mirum Q1 2026 earnings release (May 6, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Gross margin (TTM) | Approximately 81.4% | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income | -$798.84 million (includes a $726.3 million one-time IPR&D charge in Q1 2026) | StockAnalysis.com financials and Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | -$13.60 (Google Finance) and -$15.17 (StockAnalysis); Q1 2026 GAAP loss per share was -$13.43 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $50.25 - $130.00 | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 13 Buy/Strong Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell. Average target $146.50, range $125-$185 | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance analyst ratings | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $420.6 million of unrestricted cash, equivalents, and investments as of March 31, 2026 | Mirum Q1 2026 earnings release and 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | About $321 million as of March 31, 2026, before the May 2026 $600 million convertible notes offering | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC 8-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 7.27 million shares, about 11.9% of shares outstanding and 13.9% of float | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
| Insider activity | CEO Chris Peetz sold about $2.5 million on June 1, 2026; CFO Eric Bjerkholt sold about $610,000 on July 6, 2026 | SEC EDGAR Form 4 filings | August 3, 2026 |
This MIRM AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 3, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, pipeline data, FDA decisions, market prices, company events, or macro conditions change.
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