Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation research snapshot
MGY AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Magnolia Oil & Gas as a conservatively run, low-cost Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk operator that announced the $4.06 billion acquisition of WildFire Energy on July 20, 2026, funded with a balanced mix of cash, equity, and debt. The stock closed at $25.71 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $6.09 billion, re-verified as $25.71 times 236.97 million shares outstanding. The WildFire deal more than doubles Magnolia net acreage to about 1.3 million net acres, lifts pro forma oil production about 89 percent to roughly 80,000 barrels per day with a 50 percent oil mix, and is expected to be highly accretive to free cash flow per share and earnings per share, with at least $100 million of annual synergies targeted by the end of 2027 and a deleveraging path to about 1x or less net debt to EBITDA by year-end 2027. Management raised the quarterly dividend 9 percent to $0.18 and raised standalone 2026 production growth guidance to 6 percent from 5 percent. The offset is execution and integration risk on a much larger balance sheet, so the MGY AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a single price commitment.
Current price
$25.71
Market cap
$6.09 billion (236.97 million shares)
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
Low-cost Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk operator expanding into the largest South Texas acreage position through the WildFire acquisition, with temporary leverage and a stated deleveraging path
Trend status
Above the 5-day and 20-day moving averages but below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, trading in the lower half of its 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Magnolia converts Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk acreage into oil, natural gas, and NGL production with high cash margins, a low capital reinvestment rate, and a conservative operating model. TTM revenue is about $1.32 billion with a 32.7 percent operating margin and about 25 percent net margin. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate and comes from a very low-cost structure, deep Giddings subsurface knowledge, and, after the WildFire deal, the largest South Texas Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk acreage position with embedded infrastructure such as gathering pipelines and a sand mine. Pricing power remains limited because oil and gas are commodities. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Christopher Stavros has run Magnolia with consistent capital discipline, grown the dividend for four consecutive years, kept leverage low, and structured the WildFire deal with committed financing, a 32.2 million share equity component, a $500 million notes issuance, and a stated plan to reach about 1x net debt to EBITDA by year-end 2027. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $358.51 million with net income to common of $99.83 million and diluted EPS of $0.54, while TTM revenue of $1.32 billion, TTM net income near $318 million, and TTM free cash flow of $385 million remain positive through lower commodity prices. The acquisition is expected to add materially to free cash flow once closed. | High |
| Valuation | At $25.71, financial_rigor.py verifies about 14.95x TTM EPS, 2.34x book value, 4.62x sales, 15.87x free cash flow, and a 2.57 percent dividend yield. The forward PE of about 8x to 8.8x reflects the WildFire earnings step-up already embedded in consensus estimates. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $25.71 on July 31, 2026, above its 5-day average of $24.64 and essentially at its 20-day average of $25.68, but below its 50-day average of $26.67, 100-day average of $28.23, and 200-day average of $26.05, with 14-day RSI near 49. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is now moderate to elevated. The balance sheet stays conservative on a reported basis with debt to equity of 0.20, but the pending WildFire deal, committed credit facility, $500 million notes, and an 8.88 percent short position add execution, leverage, and commodity-cycle risk. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and the M&A call. Lower for forward return estimates because oil prices, synergy capture, and deleveraging speed are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction, and the near-term outcome is unusually dependent on the WildFire closing and the August 5, 2026 earnings report. | Medium |
MGY AI stock forecast
The MGY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $25.71, TTM EPS of $1.72, and the acquisition-driven FY2026 consensus EPS of about $2.94. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $11, a base area near $24, and a bullish area near $42 before dividends, using EPS growth of negative 3 percent, 12 percent, and 20 percent and exit multiples of 7x, 10x, and 14x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$38 to $46 before dividends
More likely if WTI prices stay supportive, the WildFire integration captures the targeted $100 million annual synergies, the combined asset base delivers mid-single-digit production growth with a roughly 50 percent oil mix, debt falls toward the 1x net debt to EBITDA goal, and the market re-rates the forward multiple toward the 12x to 14x area.
$22 to $28 before dividends
More likely if oil prices hold near current levels, the deal closes late in Q3 2026 as planned, free cash flow funds steady debt reduction plus the growing dividend and 1 percent per quarter buybacks, and the stock keeps trading near its historical forward multiple of about 8x to 11x.
$9 to $14 before dividends
More likely if crude prices fall sharply, integration or capital efficiency disappoints, debt reduction slows against the deleveraging plan, dividends are cut, or the market compresses the entire E&P sector to trough multiples, which would outweigh the balance sheet resilience.
MGY AI technical analysis
MGY AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff shows a stock at $25.71 that is recovering short term but still below its medium-term trend lines. The close sits above the 5-day average of $24.64 and essentially at the 20-day average of $25.68, while the 50-day average of $26.67, 100-day average of $28.23, and 200-day average of $26.05 all remain overhead. The stock is in the lower half of its $21.07 to $32.76 52-week range, with 14-day RSI near 49 and an ADX near 21 that indicates a weak, range-bound trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.71 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 236.97 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $24.64 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $24.64, below the July 31 close, which shows the very short-term bounce from the post-offering low near $23.75. |
| Immediate support | $23.75 to $24.50 | The July 22, 2026 equity offering was priced at $23.75, and the 5-day average sits near $24.64, forming the first demand zone for pullbacks. |
| Deeper support | $21 to $22 | This range brackets the 52-week low of $21.07. A move here would represent about an 18 percent decline from the current price and would retest the annual range floor. |
| Near resistance | $26.50 to $27.00 | The 50-day moving average of $26.67 is the first overhead hurdle. Clearing it on volume would signal that the medium-term downtrend is losing force. |
| Upper resistance | $28.00 to $28.50 | The 100-day moving average of $28.23 is the next ceiling. A sustained move through this zone would point toward the upper half of the 52-week range. |
| 52-week high | $32.76 | The top of the annual range is the ultimate upside target, roughly 27 percent above the current price, and would require a re-rating on deal execution. |
| Volume profile | 20-day average volume near 6.6 million | Volume is elevated because of the M&A announcement, the equity offering, and the approaching earnings date. Normal trading has run closer to 3 to 4 million shares per day. |
| Momentum | Neutral, RSI near 49 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 49.19 and 9-day RSI near 52.42 on July 31, 2026, a neutral reading that does not yet confirm a new uptrend. |
| Volatility | Elevated near earnings | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 50 percent, so position sizing should account for larger swings around the August 5, 2026 earnings report and deal updates. |
| Trend strength | ADX near 21 with negative directional pressure | Barchart reported 14-day ADX near 21.16 with negative directional index of 30.43 above the positive directional index of 22.68, a weak medium-term downtrend that the recent bounce has not yet reversed. |
| Invalidation | Close below $23, then below $21 | A sustained close below the $23.75 offering price area would point toward the $21 to $22 support and the 52-week low. A close below $21.07 would break the entire annual range. |
MGY AI trading strategy
The MGY AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with oil prices, WildFire closing and integration progress, free cash flow, capital returns, and the August 5, 2026 earnings catalyst.
Watch for MGY to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $26.67 and then the 100-day average near $28.23 on above-average volume, with supportive WTI prices and no negative deal headlines. A confirmed close above $28 would open a path toward the upper half of the 52-week range.
A failed attempt at $26.67 to $27.00 followed by a close back below the 20-day average near $25.68 should reduce trend confidence, especially if crude weakens or integration news disappoints.
If MGY retests the $23.75 to $24.50 area without fundamental damage, compare the lower price with forward EPS estimates near $2.94 for FY2026, free cash flow yield, dividend coverage, and the deleveraging plan before acting.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if oil prices look structurally weak, the WildFire deal faces financing or closing problems, or management signals lower production guidance or a dividend cut.
Track WTI and Brent prices, WildFire closing timing and synergy milestones, pro forma production and oil mix, quarterly free cash flow, debt reduction toward the 1x net debt to EBITDA goal, dividend declarations, and buyback pace.
Position sizing should reflect that MGY is an energy cyclical whose near-term outcome now also depends on one large acquisition, not a guaranteed AI price prediction.
Investment research summary
Magnolia converts South Texas Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk acreage into oil, gas, and NGL production with industry-leading cash margins and a low capital reinvestment rate. Customers buy because energy is essential, but the durable advantage is the low-cost structure and capital discipline, not pricing power.
The moat comes from very low finding and development costs, eight years of Giddings subsurface knowledge, and, after the WildFire deal, roughly 1.3 million net acres that make it the largest South Texas Eagle Ford and Austin Chalk operator, with gathering infrastructure and a sand mine that lower operating costs.
The thesis fails if crude prices decline sharply, the WildFire integration delivers less than the $100 million annual synergy target, the newly added debt takes longer than planned to pay down, management abandons capital discipline, dividends are cut, or the stock simply stays range-bound while the market waits for proof of execution.
Chairman and CEO Christopher Stavros has maintained capital discipline, grown the dividend for four consecutive years, returned roughly $2 billion to shareholders since inception, and structured the WildFire deal with committed financing, a balanced equity and cash mix, and a clear deleveraging plan. The key question is whether discipline survives the integration and the next downcycle.
US onshore oil and gas remains essential to energy security and the Eagle Ford is one of the most economic basins, but E&P returns are cyclical and face energy transition, policy, and environmental pressure over the long term. The WildFire deal raises the oil mix to about 50 percent, which increases commodity-price exposure rather than reducing it.
At $25.71, MGY trades at about 15x TTM EPS and roughly 8x to 8.8x forward EPS, with a 2.57 percent dividend yield and an analyst average target of $32.82. Margin of safety is moderate given the low-cost base and deleveraging path, but a larger cushion would be needed if oil prices or integration fall short of expectations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| MGY stock price | $25.71 close on July 31, 2026, $25.95 after hours | StockAnalysis.com MGY real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $6.09 billion reported and $6.09 billion calculated from $25.71 x 236.97 million shares, verified by financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 236.97 million shares outstanding, including the shares issued in the July 2026 equity offering | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $1.32 billion TTM | StockAnalysis.com financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $1.31 billion and net income of $325.25 million, EPS of $1.73 | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $1.72 on the statistics page, $1.73 on the financials page | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue of $358.51 million, net income to common of $99.83 million, diluted EPS of $0.54, free cash flow of $69.19 million | StockAnalysis.com quarterly income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $124.37 million as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (124372000) from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q; management cited $296 million of cash at June 30, 2026 on the M&A call | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and Magnolia M&A call | August 3, 2026 |
| Long-term debt | $393.44 million as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (393442000); the statistics page reports total debt of $412.90 million under S&P Global classification | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt position | Net debt of negative $269 million based on the Form 10-Q figures, versus negative $289 million on the statistics page | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 14.95x TTM PE, 2.34x book value, 4.62x sales, 15.87x free cash flow, 2.57% dividend yield, EV/EBITDA 7.28x from financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis.com inputs | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward PE of 8.00 on the statistics page and about 8.76 based on the $2.94 FY2026 consensus EPS estimate | StockAnalysis.com statistics and forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow of $851.77 million, capital expenditures of $466.74 million, free cash flow of $385.03 million | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $21.07 to $32.76 | StockAnalysis.com MGY overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.66 per share, 2.57% yield, with the quarterly rate raised 9% to $0.18 payable September 1, 2026, ex-dividend August 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and Magnolia dividend press release | August 3, 2026 |
| WildFire Energy acquisition | Approximately $4.06 billion, announced July 20, 2026, funded with a balanced mix of cash and equity including 32.2 million shares of Magnolia Class A stock, assuming WildFire $600 million notes due 2029, with a committed credit facility raised to a $2 billion borrowing base and $1.75 billion elected commitments; closing expected late Q3 2026 | Magnolia M&A announcement call and PRNewswire release | July 20, 2026 |
| WildFire asset profile | WildFire produced about 53 Mboe/d (37 Mboe/d oil) in Q2 2026 across about 810,000 net acres; combined pro forma Q2 production is about 159 Mboe/d with a 50% oil mix, pro forma oil production up 89%, and proved developed reserves up 84% to more than 300 million BOE | Magnolia M&A call and PRNewswire release | July 21, 2026 |
| Synergy and cash flow targets | At least $100 million of annual cost savings on a run-rate basis by the end of 2027 with a present value near $700 million, and more than $4.5 billion of cumulative free cash flow projected over the next 4.5 years through 2030 at recent strip prices | Magnolia M&A call | July 20, 2026 |
| Deleveraging plan | Management expects net debt to EBITDA at roughly 1x or less by year-end 2027, with D&C capital spending limited to less than 55% of adjusted EBITDAX and continued share repurchases of at least 1% of outstanding shares per quarter | Magnolia M&A call | July 20, 2026 |
| Equity offering | $1 billion Class A common stock offering, priced July 22, 2026 at $23.75 across 46.3 million shares in a spot secondary, to help fund the WildFire acquisition | StockAnalysis.com news feed and Magnolia 8-K filings | July 22, 2026 |
| Senior notes offering | $500 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034 priced July 22, 2026 by Magnolia Oil & Gas Operating LLC | StockAnalysis.com news feed and Magnolia press release | July 22, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production update | Q2 2026 total production averaged about 106 Mboe/d with oil of about 42 Mbo/d, D&C capital of $125 million, and standalone 2026 production growth guidance raised to 6% from 5% | Magnolia M&A call and Q2 2026 operational update | July 20, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $32.82 across 18 analysts, low $26 and high $41, median $33 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions, July 2026 | J.P. Morgan Hold $29 to $32 on July 31, Goldman Sachs Hold $27 to $26 on July 28, Truist upgrade to Buy $32 to $33 on July 28, William Blair Buy on July 24, Wells Fargo Hold $31 on July 24 | StockAnalysis.com forecast analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 21.04 million shares short, 8.88% of shares outstanding, 6.47 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate about $1.91B with EPS of $2.94, FY2027 revenue about $2.69B with EPS of $3.32 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $24.64, 20-day SMA near $25.68, 50-day SMA near $26.67, 100-day SMA near $28.23, 200-day SMA near $26.05, 14-day RSI near 49.19, 14-day ADX near 21.16, 14-day historical volatility near 50% | Barchart technical analysis and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Management | Christopher G. Stavros, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Brian Corales, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer | Magnolia Oil & Gas corporate website and M&A call | July 20, 2026 |
This MGY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong if commodity prices, the WildFire closing or integration, company fundamentals, market multiples, or macro conditions change.
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