MongoDB, Inc. research snapshot
MDB AI stock analysis currently views MongoDB as a differentiated developer data platform with accelerating Atlas demand, a growing AI application opportunity, and much stronger cash generation than its GAAP income statement alone suggests. The offset is a demanding valuation, persistent stock-based compensation, consumption-model variability, and intense competition from hyperscalers and database vendors. At the July 11, 2026 cutoff, MDB last closed at $362.87 on July 9 and $362.87 multiplied by 80.43 million shares implied market capitalization near $29.19 billion. The MDB AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise prediction, and this page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$362.87 close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$29.19 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
High-growth data platform, priced for continued execution
Trend status
Strong recovery trend, with technical levels subject to daily price and volume changes
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | MongoDB sells a developer data platform through Atlas cloud consumption, enterprise subscriptions, and services. Customers pay for flexible application data, search, analytics, and AI retrieval capabilities. | High |
| Moat | Developer familiarity, application migration costs, Atlas operational tooling, a broad partner ecosystem, and a unified document-data model support retention, but cloud platforms can bundle credible alternatives. | Medium-high |
| Management | New CEO CJ Desai and an expanded product and sales leadership team are focused on product velocity and enterprise execution. The leadership transition raises execution and key-person monitoring needs. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 FY2027 revenue was $687.6 million, up 25% year over year. Atlas revenue grew more than 29%, while operating cash flow was $201.6 million and free cash flow was $197.5 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $362.87, the reproducible model shows about 60.0x FY2027 non-GAAP EPS midpoint and 49.4x TTM free cash flow per share. GAAP profitability remains thin, so those multiples need careful interpretation. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | MDB recovered sharply from late-June levels and closed at $362.87 on July 9. The trend is constructive, but support and resistance should be treated as zones, not forecasts. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are Atlas consumption variability, cloud-vendor competition, AI demand failing to monetize as expected, security and uptime events, dilution, leadership execution, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Company-reported operating data and independently checked market-cap math support a high descriptive confidence label. Predictive confidence remains medium. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | MDB has a credible long-term platform thesis, but it is not a high-certainty bargain at a valuation that assumes ongoing Atlas growth and margin progress. | Medium |
MDB AI stock forecast
The MDB AI stock forecast uses the July 9, 2026 $362.87 close and MongoDB FY2027 non-GAAP EPS guidance midpoint of $6.045. A reproducible three-year model using 24%, 18%, and 10% EPS growth with 70x, 55x, and 40x exit multiples produced $806.80, $546.30, and $321.80 values. These are assumptions-based scenarios, not price targets or promises.
$750 to $850 over three years
More likely if Atlas continues to outgrow the company, AI-agent workloads turn into durable production consumption, FY2027 revenue exceeds the $2.92 billion to $2.96 billion guidance range, and investors retain a premium growth multiple.
$500 to $575 over three years
More likely if revenue compounds near the high-teens rate, non-GAAP earnings follow guidance, free cash flow remains strong, and the market gradually values MDB near a 55x earnings multiple.
$300 to $345 over three years
More likely if Atlas consumption slows, cloud vendors capture more AI database workloads, stock-based compensation remains high, GAAP profitability stalls, or the multiple compresses toward 40x earnings.
MDB AI technical analysis
MDB AI technical analysis uses the July 11, 2026 cutoff and the latest available July 9 close of $362.87 from StockAnalysis. No intraday claim is made after that close. The zones below use recent observed price areas and should be refreshed against a current chart before any trading decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $362.87 | Latest available close on July 9, 2026, used for market-cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $350 to $355 | A nearby round-number and recent trading zone. Holding it would preserve the short-term recovery structure. |
| Deeper support | $300 to $307 | Recent late-June trading data included closes near $294 to $307, making this a higher-volatility retest area. |
| Major support | $270 to $280 | A break into this zone would materially weaken the recovery read and require a fresh fundamental review. |
| Near resistance | $380 to $400 | A round-number overhead zone where a breakout should be assessed with volume and the next earnings update. |
| Moving averages | Refresh on a live chart | Moving averages change daily. Use the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day measures to confirm whether price is above, testing, or below trend support. |
| Momentum | Positive recovery, not a prediction | The move from late-June levels to the July 9 close shows positive momentum, but momentum can reverse quickly around earnings and guidance. |
| Volume | Compare with 20-day average | A breakout is more credible when volume exceeds the recent 20-day average. Low-volume moves deserve less confidence. |
| Volatility | High-growth software volatility | MDB can move sharply on consumption commentary, AI expectations, and valuation changes, so fixed dollar stops should account for normal range expansion. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $300 | A sustained break below the $300 to $307 area would invalidate the short-term recovery setup and shift attention toward the $270 to $280 zone. |
MDB AI trading strategy
The MDB AI trading strategy below is a non-personalized framework. It pairs price confirmation with Atlas growth, guidance, free cash flow, diluted shares, and the valuation paid for those results.
Wait for MDB to hold the $350 to $355 support zone and break the $380 to $400 area on above-average volume. Confirm the setup when the next earnings report shows Atlas growth, full-year guidance, and free cash flow consistent with the thesis.
A failed breakout or sustained close below $300 should reduce confidence. Do not let a platform narrative override a change in consumption trends or guidance.
If the price pulls back toward $300 to $307 without a deterioration in Atlas growth, RPO, cash flow, or guidance, compare the revised valuation with non-GAAP EPS and free cash flow rather than relying on the prior high.
Avoid treating every dip as value. Reassess if cloud competition, AI monetization, dilution, or GAAP operating losses worsen.
Track Atlas growth, subscription revenue, RPO and current RPO, customer expansion, full-year guidance, operating cash flow, free cash flow, stock-based compensation, diluted shares, and enterprise AI adoption.
Position size should reflect a high-multiple software stock with consumption sensitivity, not a guaranteed AI winner. Build and test your own rules in the Pineify trading strategy tools.
Investment research summary
Customers pay MongoDB to build and operate applications on a flexible data platform without assembling separate systems for operational data, search, analytics, and AI retrieval. Atlas turns that value into recurring consumption revenue.
MongoDB benefits from developer adoption, document-model familiarity, migration and operational switching costs, Atlas tooling, partners, and multi-cloud availability. The moat is contested by AWS, Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, and specialist data platforms.
The thesis fails if Atlas consumption decelerates, generative AI workloads stay experimental or favor bundled cloud databases, pricing pressure increases, stock compensation dilutes per-share economics, or the valuation resets before earnings compound.
CJ Desai became President and CEO in fiscal 2026, with sales and product leadership expanded in 2026. The relevant test is whether the new team converts product innovation into durable enterprise adoption while preserving operating discipline.
Application modernization and AI production workloads expand the need for flexible operational data, retrieval, search, and persistent agent memory. The trend is real, but cloud platforms can capture a large share of the economic value.
At the cutoff price, the model implies about 60x FY2027 non-GAAP EPS midpoint and 49x TTM free cash flow per share. The market is paying for years of execution, leaving limited room for a material growth or multiple disappointment.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest close | $362.87 on July 9, 2026 | StockAnalysis market data | July 11, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and calculated market cap | 80.43 million shares; $29.19 billion at $362.87 | StockAnalysis statistics; Pineify exact market-cap calculation | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $2.464 billion, up 23% year over year | MongoDB FY2026 results and StockAnalysis | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2026 GAAP net loss | $71.2 million | MongoDB FY2026 10-K and Macrotrends | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 revenue and Atlas growth | $687.6 million, up 25%; Atlas up more than 29% | MongoDB Q1 FY2027 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 cash flow | $201.6 million operating cash flow; $197.5 million free cash flow | MongoDB Q1 FY2027 results | July 11, 2026 |
| Cash, equivalents, investments, and restricted cash | $2.4 billion at April 30, 2026 | MongoDB Q1 FY2027 results | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2027 guidance | $2.92 billion to $2.96 billion revenue; $5.95 to $6.14 non-GAAP EPS | MongoDB Q1 FY2027 results | July 11, 2026 |
This MDB page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data and stated assumptions, can be wrong, and may change without notice. Verify current filings, prices, technical data, and your own objectives before making an investment decision.
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