Stride, Inc. research snapshot
LRN AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Stride as a cheap, cash-generative education company facing a leadership transition and policy risk. The stock traded at $82.25 on August 3, 2026 at 1:00 PM EDT, up 1.96 or 2.44% from the $80.29 July 31 close, with a market capitalization near $3.45 billion that matches the $82.25 price times 41.90 million shares. The July 30, 2026 CEO succession announcement pushed out James Rhyu, who led the company for five years, and installed board member Robert Knowling, which triggered a 14.98% single-day drop to $83.07 before the stock stabilized. Preliminary fiscal year 2026 results announced the same day point to revenue of $2,518.1 million, net income of $338.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $617.6 million, versus $2,405.3 million, $287.9 million, and $571.0 million a year earlier. The stock trades at roughly 12.9x trailing earnings and 10.0x forward earnings with a clean balance sheet, but General Education enrollment fell about 5% in Q3, a Texas district did not renew a K-8 contract, and analysts cut ratings and targets in the week before this refresh. Price data is from the August 3, 2026 reading.
Current price
$82.25 at the August 3, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT reading, up 1.96 or 2.44% from the $80.29 July 31 close, after the stock fell 14.98% to $83.07 on July 30 when the CEO transition was announced
Market cap
$3.45 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Cheap earnings, but a new CEO and policy risks cloud the setup
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July 30 transition drop, holding above the recent $78.85 low
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Stride operates technology-based K-12 online curriculum, career learning programs in middle and high school plus adult markets (Galvanize, Tech Elevator, MedCerts), and tuition-based private schools. Revenue for fiscal 2026 is preliminarily reported at $2,518.1 million, up about 4.7% from $2,405.3 million. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from state contracts, regulatory approvals, school district relationships, a 25-year brand history in K-12 online education, and a large base of enrolled students. Career learning competes against community colleges, bootcamps, and employer programs, and adult bootcamps are in structural decline. | Medium |
| Management | CEO James Rhyu departed on July 29, 2026 after five years in the role, and board member Robert Knowling, a former CEO of Covad Communications, Telwares, and SimDesk, and the former CEO of the NYC Leadership Academy, was appointed CEO. Donna Blackman remains CFO. The transition creates short-term execution uncertainty. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Preliminary FY2026 revenue of $2,518.1 million, income from operations of $450.8 million, net income of $338.2 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $617.6 million would all be records. TTM revenue is $2.54 billion, TTM net income is $308.12 million, and TTM free cash flow is $414.27 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $82.25, LRN trades at about 12.9x trailing earnings, 10.0x forward earnings, 1.36x sales, 2.10x book value, and 8.3x free cash flow. The low multiple prices in enrollment and policy risk, but it also assumes the company can keep growing earnings after a leadership change. | Medium |
| Technical trend | LRN closed at $82.25 on August 3, 2026, below its 50-day moving average near $89.68 and its 200-day moving average near $85.22, after falling 14.98% to $83.07 on July 30 and touching a July 31 low of $78.85. The stock has stabilized above $78.85 but has not reclaimed the moving averages. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are enrollment sensitivity to state funding and policy, a new CEO with no prior K-12 operating tenure, the Texas Lone Star Online Academy K-8 contract loss, Pennsylvania virtual funding legislation, AI competition such as Anthropic Claude for Teachers, high short interest near 16% of shares outstanding, and the volatility of a mid-cap education name. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive analysis has high data confidence because the financials and market data cross-validated across multiple sources. Forward return estimates remain scenarios given the leadership transition, preliminary results, and enrollment policy uncertainty. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The valuation looks statistically cheap, but the certainty of a recovery thesis is lower after the leadership change. Value certainty is higher than business-momentum certainty, and the stock can stay cheap while enrollment and earnings growth remain uncertain. | Medium |
LRN AI stock forecast
The LRN AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a fixed target. Using the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $8.18, an August 3, 2026 price near $82.25, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans a bearish area near $78, a base area near $114, and a bullish area near $172. The scenarios assume adjusted EPS growth of about 2%, 5%, and 12% per year and exit multiples of 9x, 12x, and 15x forward earnings. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$165 to $178
More likely if a stable FY2027 guidance under the new CEO, re-accelerating enrollment after the platform issues, stable or better state funding, continued double-digit Career Learning growth, and margin expansion support re-rating closer to a 15x forward multiple.
$108 to $118
More likely if enrollment grows at low single digits, General Education stabilizes, Career Learning keeps growing, margins hold near current levels, and the stock holds near a 12x forward multiple for a mid-cap education company.
$72 to $82
More likely if enrollment faces further headwinds from policy changes, additional district contract losses like the Texas Lone Star Academy renewal, Pennsylvania-style funding cuts spread, AI competition accelerates, the new CEO missteps, or the market keeps the multiple near 9x forward earnings.
LRN AI technical analysis
LRN AI technical analysis shows a stock in a corrective phase after the July 30 CEO transition drop. As of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, LRN traded at $82.25, below its 50-day moving average near $89.68 and its 200-day moving average near $85.22, after touching a July 31 low of $78.85. The stock is holding a support base above the 52-week low near $60.62 but needs to reclaim the moving averages to turn the medium-term trend constructive.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $82.25 | StockAnalysis.com reported the August 3, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT reading at $82.25, up 1.96 or 2.44% from the $80.29 July 31 close, after the July 30 transition-day close of $83.07. |
| Near support | $78.85 to $80 | The July 31 intraday low was $78.85 and the August 3 session low was $80.00. This zone is the first test for the post-transition recovery. |
| Deeper support | $70 to $75 | The area below the recent base before the path toward the 52-week low near $60.62. A break below $75 would suggest the market is pricing a weaker FY2027 enrollment outcome. |
| Major support | $60.62 | The 52-week low reported by both StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance. A move to this zone would represent a full retest of the 2025-2026 decline. |
| Near resistance | $85 to $89 | The 200-day moving average near $85.22 sits just overhead, followed by the 50-day moving average near $89.68. A reclaim of these levels would signal a stronger recovery. |
| Major resistance | $90 to $98 | The July 2026 trading range, where LRN traded between $90 and $98 before the transition drop. This zone is the first meaningful hurdle on a recovery attempt. |
| Moving averages | Price below 50-day and 200-day | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $89.67 and the 200-day near $85.22 on August 3, 2026, matching StockAnalysis.com, with both above the $82.25 price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41.7 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 41.51 and StockAnalysis.com near 41.72 on August 3, 2026, a neutral-to-weak reading after the drop. |
| Volume | Heavy on the drop | Volume spiked to about 2.5 million shares on July 30 and about 2.2 million on July 31, well above the 20-day average near 841,000 shares, reflecting the transition-driven selling. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 83% on August 3, 2026, reflecting the sharp July 30 move. Position sizing should account for large daily swings around earnings and guidance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $78.85 | A decisive close below the July 31 low of $78.85 would invalidate the short-term recovery base and open the path toward the $70 to $75 zone. |
LRN AI trading strategy
The LRN AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-planning framework, not personal advice. It combines a value thesis with the CEO transition, the preliminary FY2026 results, and enrollment-focused monitoring, and it should be paired with fresh price data, filings, and position sizing.
Watch for LRN to reclaim and hold the 200-day moving average near $85 and the 50-day near $89 with expanding volume. A successful reclaim would target the $90 to $98 July range and, above that, the analyst consensus target near $113.50.
A daily close below the July 31 low of $78.85 would break the recovery base and signal a deeper correction toward $70 to $75.
If LRN pulls back toward the $78.85 to $80 zone without new negative guidance, the clean balance sheet, strong free cash flow, and cheap forward multiple offer a risk-reward entry for a value recovery.
Do not assume every pullback is a buy. A close below $75 with the stock losing the 52-week low trajectory would suggest the market is pricing a structural enrollment decline, not just a transition dip.
Track the August 4, 2026 Q4 FY2026 report and 10-K, the new CEO guidance for FY2027, quarterly enrollment and revenue per enrollment, state funding decisions, district contract renewals, Career Learning revenue mix, margins, and free cash flow conversion.
Reduce confidence if the stock keeps rising on headlines while enrollment or guidance deteriorates, or if the new CEO delays FY2027 targets and the market de-rates the multiple further.
Investment research summary
Stride provides online curriculum, educational services, and career learning programs to K-12 schools, school districts, adult learners, and employers. Customers pay for state-approved or accredited online education that traditional brick-and-mortar schools may not offer.
The moat comes from state contracts, regulatory approvals, school district relationships, and a 25-year brand in K-12 online education. Career learning competes against community colleges, bootcamps, and employer programs, and adult bootcamps are in structural decline, though MedCerts remains an attractive market segment.
The thesis fails if state funding for online K-12 education is reduced, Pennsylvania-style virtual funding legislation spreads, enrollment stalls or declines as families return to in-person schooling and district contracts like the Texas Lone Star Online Academy renewal are not renewed, AI competitors such as Anthropic Claude for Teachers displace the curriculum value, or the new CEO transition disrupts execution.
James Rhyu, CEO since 2021 after serving as CFO and President, departed on July 29, 2026, and board member Robert Knowling, a former CEO of Covad Communications, Telwares, and SimDesk and former CEO of the NYC Leadership Academy, was appointed CEO. Donna Blackman remains CFO. The transition adds short-term execution uncertainty.
Online and blended learning remains a secular growth trend supported by technology adoption and the skills gap, and Stride reported a strong new business pipeline and robust application demand for the fall. However, the for-profit education sector faces periodic policy risk, and AI-powered education tools create a new competitive front.
At roughly 10x forward earnings, 12.9x trailing earnings, and 8.3x free cash flow, LRN trades below the market average and below many education peers. The low multiple reflects enrollment, policy, and transition risk. Margin of safety improves if the new CEO delivers credible FY2027 guidance, enrollment stabilizes, and the stock holds support above $78.85.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LRN price | $82.25 at the August 3, 2026, 1:00 PM EDT reading, up 1.96 or 2.44% from the $80.29 July 31 close, within a session range of $80.00 to $82.69 | StockAnalysis.com quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.45 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with the August 3 price near $82.25 times 41.90 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics; financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 41.90 million shares, up 3.05% year over year, with a float of 40.56 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue $2.54 billion up 10.9%, gross profit $972 million, operating income $462 million, net income $308.12 million, EPS $6.38, free cash flow $414.27 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials; Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 12.89x trailing PE, 9.98x forward PE, 1.34x PS, 2.05x PB, 8.19x P/FCF, EV/EBITDA 5.87x, verified with financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com statistics; financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $805.84 million, total debt $547.42 million, net cash $258.42 million, book value $1.64 billion, debt-to-equity 0.33 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Preliminary FY2026 results | Revenue expected at $2,518.1 million vs $2,405.3 million, income from operations $450.8 million vs $360.1 million, adjusted operating income $498.4 million vs $466.2 million, net income $338.2 million vs $287.9 million, adjusted EBITDA $617.6 million vs $571.0 million | Stride CEO succession press release, July 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 results | Revenue $629.9 million up 2.7%, net income $88.5 million, diluted EPS $1.93, adjusted EPS $2.30, adjusted EBITDA $171.3 million up 1.8%, gross margin 36.8% down 380 bps | Stride Q3 FY2026 earnings release and call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue by segment | General Education $357.5 million down 3.6%, Middle and High School Career Learning $259.5 million up 15.9%, Adult Career Learning $12.9 million down 31.0%, total Career Learning $272.4 million up 12.3% | Stride Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 enrollment | 244.5K total enrollments up 1.8% year over year, including 110.1K Career Learning enrollments up 11.6%; General Education enrollment down about 5%; revenue per enrollment $2,485 up 2.9% | Stride Q3 FY2026 earnings release and call transcript | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Narrowed revenue range $2.490 billion to $2.520 billion, adjusted operating income $490 million to $500 million, capital expenditures $75 million to $80 million, effective tax rate 24% to 25% | Stride Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Robert Knowling appointed CEO effective July 29, 2026, succeeding James Rhyu; Steven Fink named Chair of the Board; Brian Shepherd appointed to the Board | Stride CEO succession press release, July 30, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst ratings | Consensus Buy with average price target $113.50 (low $102, high $125); William Blair downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform on July 30, BMO cut its target to $93 on July 31, and Barrington reiterated Buy with a $125 target on July 29 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings; TheFly news | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and volatility | 52-week range $60.62 to $171.17, stock down 36.75% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 0.10, RSI near 41.7, 50-day moving average $89.68, 200-day moving average $85.22, short interest near 16.09% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics; Barchart technical snapshot | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $2.51 billion with adjusted EPS $8.18, FY2027 revenue $2.62 billion with adjusted EPS $8.73, 3-year revenue growth forecast 4.59% and EPS growth 5.20% | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
This LRN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, leadership updates, enrollment data, policy changes, or market moves.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
