nLIGHT, Inc. research snapshot
LASR AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads nLIGHT, Inc. as a high-risk, high-potential semiconductor laser and defense technology company whose profile was transformed by a $627 million Joint Laser Weapon System (JLWS) contract announced July 9, 2026. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the cutoff, the stock traded at $71.25 on August 3, 2026 at 12:28 PM EDT, up 2.45 or 3.56% from the $68.80 close on July 31, after opening at $65.90 within a day range near $65.10 to $72.34, carrying a market capitalization near $4.02 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with $71.25 times 56.41 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report is scheduled for August 6, 2026, two days after this cutoff, so Q2 results had not been released when this page was written. The stock is consolidating above its 50-day moving average near $68.90 and its 200-day moving average near $55.12 after the July contract spike, with a 14-day RSI near 53.18 on Barchart and 53.71 on StockAnalysis.com, roughly neutral. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$71.25 at the August 3, 2026, 12:28 PM EDT reading, up 2.45 or 3.56% from the $68.80 July 31 close, after opening at $65.90 within a day range near $65.10 to $72.34
Market cap
$4.02 billion
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Transformational defense contract, execution still unproven
Trend status
Consolidating above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a July spike and subsequent pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | nLIGHT designs and manufactures semiconductor and fiber lasers for defense, industrial, microfabrication, and medical markets. TTM revenue is $289.84 million with gross margin near 31.28%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from deep technical expertise in high-power lasers, a large patent portfolio, vertical integration from laser chips to complete systems, and defense-specific certifications that create high barriers to entry. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Scott Keeney has led the company since its founding in 2000. CFO Joe Corso has hosted investor meetings. Recent insider sales by the CEO, CFO, and a director warrant monitoring though they may reflect pre-arranged 10b5-1 plans. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue grew 55.18% YoY to $80.18 million with the first GAAP-profitable quarter at $0.65 million. TTM revenue is $289.84 million, but TTM net income is still -$14.73 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | With negative TTM EPS, traditional PE is uncalculable. The stock trades at 13.39x TTM revenue and 152.37x forward earnings, reflecting extreme growth expectations after the JLWS award. | Low |
| Technical trend | LASR rallied from $19.45 to $86.95 over 52 weeks, then pulled back to $56.81 before the July 9 contract spike. The stock is now consolidating near $71, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are defense contract concentration and execution, government budget cycles, competition from IPG Photonics and Coherent, short interest near 5.10% of shares outstanding, very high beta of 2.36, high implied volatility, and an extreme valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for business model, recent filings, contract facts, and market cap math. Lower confidence for revenue trajectory and fair value because Q2 2026 results were pending and the JLWS contract is new. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. The JLWS contract is a potential inflection point, but the current price embeds aggressive expectations that leave little room for execution error. | Low |
LASR AI stock forecast
The LASR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $71.25 cutoff reading. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires successful JLWS contract execution, follow-on directed energy orders, sustained commercial growth, and expanding profitability. The base case assumes revenue and adjusted earnings grow but multiple compression offsets gains. The bearish case assumes contract delays, competition, or commercial market weakness. Nine analysts carry a Strong Buy consensus with an average target of $90.71 and a range of $81 to $100.
$95 to $120
More likely if nLIGHT reports Q2 2026 results at or above the $75 million to $81 million revenue guidance on August 6, executes the JLWS contract on schedule, wins additional directed energy awards, and the market prices the company near 16-18x forward revenue.
$75 to $95
More likely if Q2 2026 revenue lands near the midpoint, JLWS revenue ramps gradually, commercial growth stays in the mid-teens, and the stock trades near the analyst average target of $90.71 with a forward multiple of 13-15x.
$45 to $60
More likely if Q2 2026 results miss guidance, defense budgets shift, JLWS faces delays or cancellation, competition intensifies, or profitability disappoints, causing multiple compression toward 8-10x forward revenue.
LASR AI technical analysis
LASR AI technical analysis starts from the $71.25 August 3, 2026 reading used for this August 4 static page. Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots showed the stock consolidating above its 50-day moving average near $68.90 and its 200-day moving average near $55.12, with a 14-day RSI near 53.18 on Barchart and 53.71 on StockAnalysis.com, roughly neutral after the July spike. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.25 | August 3, 2026, 12:28 PM EDT reading used for this page as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $66 to $69 | Barchart first support near $66.36 and the 50-day moving average near $68.90 form the near support zone. |
| Secondary support | $61 to $64 | Barchart second and third support near $63.91 and $61.10 align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement near $61.16. |
| Near resistance | $71.6 to $77 | Barchart first, second, and third resistance near $71.62, $74.43, and $76.88 cap the recent consolidation range. |
| Major resistance | $87 to $90 | The 52-week high at $86.95 reached on May 8, 2026 is the major overhead resistance. |
| 50-day moving average | About $68.90 | LASR is trading just above the 50-day moving average of $68.90 per StockAnalysis.com statistics. |
| 200-day moving average | About $55.12 | The 200-day moving average near $55.12 remains well below price, confirming the longer uptrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53, roughly neutral | The 14-day RSI is near 53.18 on Barchart and 53.71 on StockAnalysis.com, neutral after the July spike cooled off. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.07 million shares | Average volume over 20 days is about 1,068,743 shares per StockAnalysis.com and 1,067,843 per Barchart. |
| Volatility | Beta 2.36, 14-day ATR near $6.29 | LASR has a 5-year beta of 2.36, and the 14-day average true range is near $6.29, about 8.89% of price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $66, then $61 | A close below the $66 near support weakens the short-term setup. A break below the $61 area would challenge the consolidation and the longer trend. |
LASR AI trading strategy
The LASR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 6, 2026, which is a near-term volatility driver.
Look for LASR to hold above the $66 to $69 support zone and reclaim the $71.6 to $77 resistance range before attempting a breakout with improving volume toward the $87 to $90 52-week-high area.
A failed breakout or daily close below $66 should reduce confidence in the trend setup. Position size should reflect the high beta of 2.36 and 8.89% daily ATR.
If LASR pulls back toward the $61 to $69 support zone without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with the August 6 Q2 2026 report, JLWS contract updates, and directed energy budget signals.
Do not average down solely because of contract news. Define maximum loss before entry and review the valuation first, given the 152.37x forward multiple.
Track the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings report against the $75 million to $81 million revenue guidance, JLWS contract milestones, defense budget developments, directed energy program awards, and commercial revenue trends.
Lower the rating if Q2 results miss guidance, JLWS faces delays, gross margins weaken, insider selling accelerates, or cash burn resumes.
Investment research summary
nLIGHT designs and manufactures high-power semiconductor and fiber lasers for defense directed energy systems, industrial manufacturing, microfabrication, and optical sensing applications.
The moat is based on a large patent portfolio, vertical integration from laser chip to complete systems, deep defense relationships, manufacturing know-how, and certification barriers that take years for competitors to replicate.
The thesis can fail if the JLWS contract faces budget cuts, delays, or cancellation, if commercial revenue growth stalls, if IPG Photonics or Coherent compete more aggressively, or if management insider selling signals a lack of confidence.
CEO Scott Keeney founded the company in 2000 and has led its growth from startup to public company. CFO Joe Corso has hosted investor meetings. Recent insider sales totaling millions of dollars warrant monitoring, though they may be part of pre-arranged trading plans.
nLIGHT sits at the intersection of defense directed energy spending, industrial automation, and photonics. The U.S. Department of War is actively investing in laser weapon systems through programs such as JLWS, and industrial laser adoption continues to grow.
At roughly 13.39x TTM revenue and 152.37x forward earnings, the price embeds aggressive growth expectations. A meaningful margin of safety requires confidence in JLWS execution, sustained commercial growth, and eventual GAAP profitability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| LASR price | $71.25 at the August 3, 2026, 12:28 PM EDT reading, up 2.45 or 3.56% from the $68.80 July 31 close | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart quote snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.02 billion, verified as $71.25 x 56,410,000 shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $289.84 million | StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$14.73 million (Q1 2026 GAAP: +$0.65 million) | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $332.59 million, of which cash is $298.21 million per SEC EDGAR | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $35.58 million | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $80.18 million, +55.18% YoY, GAAP net income +$0.65 million | StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| JLWS contract | $627 million Joint Laser Weapon System Other Transaction Authority award, announced July 9, 2026 | Business Wire press release and StockAnalysis.com news | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA near $68.90, 200-day MA near $55.12, 14-day RSI near 53 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 13.39x TTM PS, 152.37x forward PE (negative TTM EPS, so PE uncalculable) | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 9 analysts, average target $90.71, range $81 to $100 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | August 6, 2026, after market close, with Q2 revenue guidance of $75 million to $81 million | Business Wire July 20, 2026 announcement and Q1 2026 call guidance | August 4, 2026 |
This LASR AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Q2 2026 earnings had not been reported at the cutoff, so financial figures reflect the most recent available quarters.
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