ING Groep N.V. research snapshot
ING AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads ING Groep N.V. as a large European retail and wholesale bank with an improving earnings outlook, with the NYSE ADR at $34.93 at the July 31, 2026 close and a reported market capitalization of $100.07 billion, re-verified as $34.93 times 2.86 billion shares with a 0.17% deviation. The Q2 2026 report, released July 30, 2026, delivered a net result of €1,947 million, up 16.2% year on year, profit before tax of €2,919 million, up 23.2%, total income of €6,284 million, up 10.2%, and fee income of €1,278 million, up 14%, with return on tangible equity of 17.0% for the quarter, a four-quarter rolling ROTE of 14.5%, and a CET1 ratio of 13.1%. Management upgraded the 2026 outlook to total income above €24.5 billion with full-year ROTE above 15%, and the 2027 outlook to total income above €26 billion with ROTE above 16%, and announced an interim dividend of €0.40 per share paid on August 10, 2026, plus an ongoing €1.0 billion share buyback. The AI score reflects a strengthening franchise, upgraded guidance, and positive price momentum, balanced against a valuation that now trades above the consensus analyst target of $33.83. The ING AI stock forecast remains scenario-based because rates, credit losses, regulation, currencies, and investor multiples can change bank earnings quickly. This page is an informational research tool and not investment advice.
Current price
$34.93
Market cap
$100.07 billion reported market capitalization
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Strengthening franchise with an upgraded outlook, priced above the consensus target
Trend status
Positive trend above the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near a 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ING earns from retail deposits, mortgages, consumer and business lending, payments, savings, investments, transaction services, trade finance, capital markets, and treasury products across Europe and international wholesale banking. | High |
| Moat | Its moat comes from banking licenses, trusted consumer brands, deposit relationships, a scaled digital platform, data and risk systems, wholesale-client ties, and switching costs in payments, lending, and cash management. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Steven van Rijswijk leads a management team that upgraded the 2026 and 2027 income and ROTE outlook after a strong Q2 2026. The key test is whether growth, fees, cost discipline, and capital returns can hold through the credit cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 net result was €1,947 million, up 16.2% year on year, on total income of €6,284 million, up 10.2%, with a 49.1% cost/income ratio and 15 basis points of risk costs. 1H2026 net result was €3,503 million, up 11.9%. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $34.93 July 31 ADR close, $3.41 trailing EPS, $20.07 ADR-equivalent book-value input, and $1.25 annual dividend, financial_rigor.py calculates about 10.24x earnings, 1.74x book value, and a 3.58% dividend yield, versus StockAnalysis trailing PE of 10.07 and PB of 1.70. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 snapshot has price above the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages near a 52-week high of $35.07. RSI near 65.64 is positive but not yet overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are lower net interest income as rates normalize, European recession or credit stress, commercial real-estate and corporate exposures, capital and regulatory requirements, cyber and conduct costs, currency movements, and shareholder-return execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for historical disclosures and reproducible calculations. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot know future policy, credit, funding, currency, or multiple changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ING is not an automatic buy at this price. Durable upside needs continued customer growth, controlled provisions, resilient margins and fees, capital discipline, and a valuation that remains supportive after a 49% twelve-month run. | Medium |
ING AI stock forecast
The ING AI stock forecast uses the $34.93 July 31, 2026 closing ADR price and $3.41 trailing EPS in a three-year scenario calculation audited with financial_rigor.py. It produces bearish, base, and bullish values near $19.30, $35.50, and $49.90 before dividends. These ranges are not price promises.
$47 to $53
More likely if EPS compounds near 10%, customer lending and deposits continue to grow, fee income expands toward the €5.3 to €5.5 billion 2027 target, credit costs stay controlled, capital remains near target while distributions continue, and investors pay about 11x earnings.
$33 to $38
More likely if EPS grows near 5%, commercial net interest income and fees offset normal margin pressure, provisions remain orderly, and the market values ING near 9x earnings.
$17 to $22
More likely if European growth weakens, loan-loss provisions increase, lower rates compress income faster than fees grow, capital requirements rise, or the multiple contracts toward 6x lower earnings.
ING AI technical analysis
ING AI technical analysis was positive at the August 2, 2026 cutoff, using the July 31, 2026 StockAnalysis and Barchart snapshots. The ADR closed at $34.93, the 20-day moving average was $32.93, the 50-day was $31.62, the 100-day was $29.68, the 200-day was $28.49, RSI was 65.64, and 20-day average volume was about 2.3 million ADRs. Technical inputs are time-sensitive and should be refreshed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $34.93 | NYSE ADR close on July 31, 2026, used for the stated market-cap and valuation calculation. |
| Near support | $32.93 | The 20-day moving average is the first short-term trend reference after the post-earnings advance. |
| Next support | $31.62 | The 50-day moving average is the next intermediate trend-health reference. |
| Secondary support | $28.49 | The 200-day moving average is the larger trend support reference. |
| Near resistance | $35.07 to $35.50 | The 52-week high of $35.07 and the round-number zone above it need sustained demand and volume confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $32.93, 50-day $31.62, 100-day $29.68, 200-day $28.49 | The July 31, 2026 snapshot had price above every major average, supporting the intermediate trend. |
| Momentum | RSI 65.64, ADX near 15 | Momentum was positive but below the conventional 70 overbought reading, with a trending but not extreme 14-day ADX. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 2.3 million ADRs | Use this as a liquidity baseline when assessing a move through the $35.07 area or a break below support. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.90, 14-day historic volatility near 38.7% | Beta is moderate, but earnings, European rates, credit news, and capital decisions can still move a bank ADR sharply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $32.93, then $31.62 | A close below the 20-day average weakens the setup. A break below the 50-day average is a more material trend warning. |
ING AI trading strategy
The ING AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines price behavior with earnings, net interest income, fee income, customer balances, loan-loss provisions, CET1 capital, dividends, buybacks, and European macroeconomic data.
Watch whether ING can hold above the $32.93 moving-average area and clear the $35.07 52-week high with volume while results confirm stable provisions, customer growth, fee income, and capital discipline.
A failed move followed by a close below $32.93 should reduce trend confidence, especially if earnings show weaker margins, higher provisions, or capital pressure.
If the ADR retraces toward the $31.62 to $32.93 trend zone without a deterioration in credit quality or capital, compare the updated price with earnings, book value, sustainable return on tangible equity, dividends, and buybacks.
Do not assume a lower bank price is value if loan-loss provisions, funding conditions, European growth, or capital requirements are worsening.
Track commercial net interest income, fee income, deposits, core lending, cost/income ratio, risk costs, CET1, risk-weighted assets, dividend and buyback announcements, and the next earnings release.
Position sizing should reflect ING leverage, European regulatory setting, currency translation for the ADR, and sensitivity to macroeconomic and credit developments.
Investment research summary
Customers pay ING to hold deposits, borrow for homes and businesses, make payments, save and invest, manage cash, finance trade, access capital markets, and hedge financial risks. Its core proposition combines digital retail banking with wholesale financial services.
ING has regulatory and trust barriers, customer and deposit relationships, digital scale, payment and risk infrastructure, and switching costs in lending and transaction banking. These advantages are meaningful but remain exposed to price competition, fintechs, regulation, and credit cycles.
The thesis can fail if European growth deteriorates, losses on loans rise, rate normalization reduces margins faster than expected, fee growth slows, capital requirements increase, conduct or cyber events occur, or dividends and buybacks become less affordable.
Steven van Rijswijk and the leadership team upgraded the 2026 and 2027 income and ROTE outlook after Q2 2026, with a 17.0% quarterly ROTE and a €1.0 billion buyback program. The capital-allocation test is whether returns are sustained while regulatory buffers and underwriting remain sound.
Digital banking, payments, wealth needs, and corporate transaction services remain long-lived demand drivers. Banking is still capital intensive, regulated, and cyclical, so technology adoption does not remove rate, credit, funding, and compliance risk.
The stated ADR price reflects a low earnings multiple but also assumes earnings and capital distributions hold up, and it now sits above the $33.83 consensus target. The margin of safety depends on resilient credit quality, income mix, capital, and distributions rather than on the PE ratio alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ING ADR quote and market capitalization | $34.93 July 31, 2026 close and $100.07 billion reported market capitalization. Market-cap arithmetic uses 2.86 billion shares and differs by 0.17%, within the stated tolerance. | StockAnalysis ING statistics and market-cap data; Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding and ADR listing | StockAnalysis reported 2.86 billion shares outstanding for the NYSE-listed ING ADR at the stated market snapshot, down 6.28% year on year. | StockAnalysis ING statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 2Q2026 net result | €1,947 million, up 16.2% year on year from €1,675 million and up 25.1% from 1Q2026, with net result per share of €0.68. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| 2Q2026 income and profitability | Total income €6,284 million up 10.2%, net interest income €4,126 million up 16.7%, fee income €1,278 million up 14%, net interest margin 1.44%, cost/income ratio 49.1%, risk costs 15 basis points. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| 1H2026 results | 1H2026 net result €3,503 million up 11.9% and total income €12,107 million up 6.8%, with profit before tax of €5,177 million up 15.2%. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Capital position | CET1 ratio 13.1% as of June 30, 2026, total capital ratio 18.7%, leverage ratio 4.2%, and risk-weighted assets of €341.9 billion. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| ROTE | Return on tangible equity of 17.0% in 2Q2026 and 14.5% on a four-quarter rolling basis. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Customer growth | Mobile primary customers up 377,000 in the quarter to about 16 million of more than 41 million customers, with net core lending growth of €15.2 billion and net core deposits growth of €15.9 billion. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Outlook upgrade | 2026 total income expected above €24.5 billion with about €5 billion in fee income and full-year ROTE above 15%; 2027 total income expected above €26 billion with €5.3 to €5.5 billion in fee income and ROTE above 16%; CET1 guidance unchanged at about 13%. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Distribution | Interim dividend of €0.40 per share over 1H2026 paid in cash on August 10, 2026, about one third of resilient 1H2026 net profit, plus a €1.0 billion share buyback program running to October 26, 2026, with about 13.5 million shares repurchased for €350 million by the end of 2Q2026. | ING Q2 2026 press release | July 30, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and equity | Total assets of €1,160.8 billion, total deposits of €773.2 billion, net loans of €755.6 billion, common shareholders equity of €50.2 billion, and shareholders equity per share of €17.57 as of June 30, 2026. StockAnalysis reports ADR book value per share of $20.07. | ING Q2 2026 press release and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net result | ING reported FY2025 total income of €23.035 billion and a net result of €6.327 billion. StockAnalysis reported revenue of €21.731 billion and net income of €6.327 billion, with the income difference explained by a different revenue presentation. | ING 2025 Annual Report and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | 10.24x trailing PE, 1.74x price-to-book, and 3.58% dividend yield from the stated ADR and book-value inputs; StockAnalysis reported trailing PE 10.07, PB 1.70, and dividend yield 3.57%. 20-day moving average $32.93, 50-day $31.62, 100-day $29.68, 200-day $28.49, RSI 65.64. | StockAnalysis ING statistics; Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold consensus across 3 analysts with an average price target of $33.83, a low of $29, and a high of $37.50. | StockAnalysis ING forecast, S&P Global | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of €24.45 billion with EPS of €2.45 and FY2027 revenue estimate of €26.43 billion with EPS of €2.87, in EUR-based S&P Global estimates. | StockAnalysis ING forecast, S&P Global | August 2, 2026 |
| Source limitation | The latest available independent market snapshot in the research sources was July 31, 2026, while the page data cutoff is August 2, 2026. Refresh price, moving averages, volume, and valuation before using the page for a trading decision. | StockAnalysis ING statistics and forecast pages | August 2, 2026 |
This ING AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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