Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
INDV AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. as a focused specialty pharma company with a market position in long-acting injectable buprenorphine and improving financial momentum after a strong Q1 2026. The stock closed at $40.01 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was near $4.88 billion, and the shares had gained about 130% over the prior 52 weeks from a $19.31 low to a $42.81 high before cooling into a consolidation. Q1 2026 revenue rose 19% to $317 million, Sublocade net revenue rose 32% to $232 million, adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $164 million, and management raised full-year 2026 guidance, including Sublocade net revenue growth of 13% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 50% at the midpoint. The company completed its re-domiciliation to the United States on January 26, 2026, so the operating parent is now Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a Delaware corporation. The analysis trades this momentum story against a negative book value near $144 million, negative trailing free cash flow, generic Suboxone competition, litigation legacy, and a Q2 2026 report scheduled for August 4, 2026, one day after this data cutoff. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$40.01
Market cap
$4.88 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Improving specialty pharma momentum with balance sheet risk
Trend status
Cooled into consolidation after a strong run, still above the 200-day moving average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Indivior sells branded buprenorphine treatments for opioid use disorder, led by Sublocade, a monthly injectable that grew 32% in Q1 2026, into a regulated market with recurring prescription demand. | Medium |
| Moat | Regulatory approval, Sublocade patents, clinical and real-world evidence, patient switching costs, and reimbursement complexity form the moat, but Suboxone faces generics that weaken part of the franchise. | Medium-low |
| Management | New CEO Joe Ciaffoni, appointed in February 2025, executed the Action Agenda: a Q1 beat, raised guidance, $125 million of buybacks in Q1, a $175 million accelerated share repurchase in May, and a $500 million convertible that repaid the term loan. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue through March 2026 was about $1.29 billion with TTM net income near $252 million. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $164 million and guidance was raised, but trailing free cash flow was negative. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | About 20.5x trailing EPS and near 10.2x to 10.5x forward consensus EPS, with a two-year scenario range from bull near $72 to bear near $31 based on growth and multiple assumptions. | Medium |
| Technical trend | INDV closed at $40.01 on July 31, above the 50-day ($39.12), 100-day ($36.25), and 200-day ($34.47) moving averages but below the 20-day ($40.42), with 14-day RSI near 50 and ADX near 14. | Medium |
| Risk level | Suboxone generic erosion, Sublocade adoption slowdown, pipeline setback risk after INDV-2000 missed its Phase 2 primary endpoint, litigation legacy, negative book value, negative trailing free cash flow, and single-disease focus. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for reported financials, valuation math, technical levels, and risk categories. Lower for pipeline, generic share, and future cash flow forecasts. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low. Near-term momentum is real, but structural competitive, balance sheet, and regulatory risks make long-term outcomes harder to forecast. | Medium-low |
INDV AI stock forecast
The INDV AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $40.01 cutoff price and does not promise a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained double-digit Sublocade growth, contained generic erosion, and cash flow turning positive. The base case assumes guidance-level execution near analyst consensus. The bearish case assumes accelerated generic pressure, a Q2 miss, a pipeline setback, or renewed litigation.
$66 to $74
More likely if Sublocade sustains high-teens to 20%+ net revenue growth, the raised FY2026 guidance is exceeded, operating cash flow turns positive, and the market assigns a growth multiple near 14-15x forward earnings. The two-year scenario model puts this area near $72.
$48 to $55
More likely if Indivior delivers the raised guidance (Sublocade up about 13%, adjusted EBITDA up about 50%), generic erosion stays gradual, and the stock holds near 12x forward earnings, close to the $50.83 analyst consensus target.
$27 to $33
More likely if Sublocade growth decelerates, generic Suboxone captures more share, the August 4 Q2 report disappoints, pipeline trials fail, litigation liabilities re-emerge, or the multiple compresses toward 9x forward earnings. The scenario model puts this area near $31.
INDV AI technical analysis
INDV AI technical analysis starts from the $40.01 close on July 31, 2026 used for this August 3, 2026 static page. Barchart showed the stock below the 5-day ($40.27) and 20-day ($40.42) moving averages but above the 50-day ($39.12), 100-day ($36.25), and 200-day ($34.47) averages, a consolidation after a strong run. The 14-day RSI was 49.88 and 14-day ADX was 14.19 with -DI above +DI, so the trend has cooled. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $40.01 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, based on StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance. After-hours print was $40.03. |
| Near resistance | $40.42 and $42.81 | The 20-day moving average near $40.42 is the first overhead level. The 52-week high at $42.81 is the main resistance; a breakout above it would set a new high and require volume confirmation. |
| Near support | $38.63 to $39.12 | Support zone around the 50-day moving average ($39.12) and the July 31 low near $38.63. A close below this zone would put the near-term setup under pressure. |
| Secondary support | $36.25 and $34.47 | The 100-day moving average near $36.25 and the 200-day moving average near $34.47. A sustained break below the 200-day would challenge the long-term uptrend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $39.12 | Barchart showed INDV just above the 50-day average, a sign the intermediate trend is intact but cooling. |
| 100-day moving average | About $36.25 | INDV held about 10% above the 100-day average, consistent with a consolidation inside a longer uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | About $34.47 | INDV traded about 16% above its 200-day average, keeping the long-term trend structure positive. |
| Momentum | RSI 49.88, ADX 14.19 | RSI was neutral. ADX below 20 indicated a consolidating, non-trending tape, and -DI (18.92) above +DI (14.62) showed short-term directional pressure to the downside. |
| Volume | 1.35 million shares | The July 31 volume was below the 20-day average near 1.47-1.53 million. Volume confirmation is needed on any breakout or breakdown. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $1.36 | ATR of about 3.4% of share price. Position sizing should account for normal daily swings of roughly $1.30 to $1.40. |
| Invalidation | Close below $39.12, then $34.47 | A daily close below the 50-day area near $39.12 weakens the near-term setup. A close below the 100-day near $36.25 and then the 200-day near $34.47 would challenge the longer trend. |
INDV AI trading strategy
The INDV AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, with a Q2 2026 earnings report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
Look for INDV to reclaim the 20-day moving average near $40.42 and then clear the $42.81 52-week high on above-average volume before adding exposure. A close above $42.81 would confirm trend continuation.
A daily close below the 50-day area near $39.12, or a rejection from the 52-week high zone, should reduce confidence in the setup.
If INDV pulls back toward the 50-day moving average near $39.12 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with the August 4 Q2 report, Sublocade prescription data, and any guidance update.
Do not average down solely because the stock has been in an uptrend. Define maximum loss using the 200-day area near $34.47 as a strategic stop level.
Track quarterly Sublocade revenue growth, Suboxone generic share, operating cash flow, pipeline milestones, litigation developments, and execution of the $400 million share repurchase program.
Lower the rating if Sublocade growth decelerates while generic competition accelerates, cash flow stays negative, the stock loses the 200-day moving average on volume, or the Q2 report misses.
Investment research summary
Indivior develops and sells branded prescription medications for opioid use disorder, primarily Sublocade, a once-monthly injectable buprenorphine, and Suboxone sublingual film. Patients, clinics, and correctional systems rely on these as standard-of-care maintenance therapy, and Sublocade is the growth engine.
The moat rests on FDA approval, Sublocade patents, clinical and real-world adherence evidence, physician and clinic relationships, patient switching costs, and the complexity of the US addiction treatment reimbursement system. The Suboxone franchise faces generic erosion.
The thesis fails if Sublocade adoption plateaus, generic Suboxone captures more share, the INDV-2000 and INDV-6001 pipeline setbacks leave little growth optionality, litigation liabilities re-emerge, or payer reimbursement tightens. Negative book value and negative trailing free cash flow are structural flags.
CEO Joe Ciaffoni, a specialty pharma veteran who previously led Collegium, took over in February 2025. He and CFO Ryan Preblick beat Q1 estimates, raised guidance, repurchased $125 million of shares in Q1 plus a $175 million accelerated share repurchase in May, and refinanced debt with a $500 million convertible that retired the term loan. Execution proof is still early.
Opioid use disorder remains a public health priority with continued expansion of medication-assisted treatment and growing adoption of long-acting injectables that improve adherence. The demand trend appears durable, which supports Sublocade growth over the medium term.
At about 20.5x trailing EPS and near 10.2x to 10.5x forward consensus EPS, with a two-year scenario range of about $31 to $72 (base case near $51), the stock prices in strong execution but is not stretched on forward earnings if guidance is achieved.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| INDV price | $40.01 close on July 31, 2026 (after-hours $40.03) | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.88 billion, verified as $40.01 x 121.92 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 121.92 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $19.31 to $42.81 | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $1,291 million (through March 31, 2026) | StockAnalysis.com financials page | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $252 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $1.95 | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $317 million, up 19% year over year | Q1 2026 earnings release (April 30, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Sublocade net revenue | $232 million, up 32% year over year | Q1 2026 earnings release (April 30, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net income | GAAP $89 million ($0.69 diluted); non-GAAP $123 million ($0.96) | Q1 2026 earnings release (April 30, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $164 million, up 112% year over year | Q1 2026 earnings release (April 30, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Net revenue $1,215M to $1,285M; Sublocade $950M to $990M; adjusted EBITDA $620M to $660M | Q1 2026 earnings release (April 30, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet (March 31, 2026) | Cash and investments $201 million; long-term debt $486 million; stockholders deficit $144 million | Q1 2026 earnings release (April 30, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Corporate event | Re-domiciliation to the United States completed January 26, 2026; parent is now Indivior Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (Delaware) | Indivior press release (January 26, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 6 analysts, Strong Buy, average target $50.83 (range $46 to $59) | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day $39.12, 100-day $36.25, 200-day $34.47, RSI 49.88, ADX 14.19 | Barchart technical analysis data | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 11.28 million shares, about 9.25% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 20.52x trailing PE, about 10.5x forward PE on $3.82 consensus EPS, EV $5.21 billion, two-year scenarios bull $66-74 / base $48-55 / bear $27-33 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
This INDV AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
