Helios Technologies Inc. research snapshot
HLIO AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Helios Technologies as a cyclical industrial technology company whose earnings recovery is now showing real acceleration. The stock closed at $80.21 on August 3, 2026, up 2.30 or 2.95% from the $77.91 July 31 close, carrying a market capitalization near $2.65 billion, matching the $80.21 price times 33.05 million shares outstanding. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. Q1 2026, reported May 12, 2026, beat expectations with revenue of $228 million against a $220.02 million consensus and adjusted EPS of $0.80 against a $0.69 consensus, with sales up 17%, and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $2.75 to $3.00 and revenue guidance to $840 million to $870 million. The stock is up about 126% over the past 52 weeks, still roughly 16% below the 52-week high of $95.05 set on June 25, 2026, and it trades at a full valuation of about 27x forward adjusted earnings and about 44x trailing GAAP earnings. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$80.21 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 2.30 or 2.95% from the $77.91 July 31 close, after opening at $78.22 and trading in a session range of $78.22 to $80.43, with an after-hours quote of $80.67, up 0.46 or 0.58%
Market cap
$2.65 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $80.21 price times 33.05 million shares outstanding, which the financial_rigor.py market cap verification confirmed with a 0.04% deviation
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Improving cyclical industrial with strong momentum but a full valuation
Trend status
Uptrend intact above the 200-day average, consolidating below the 52-week high after a pullback from $95.05
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Helios sells engineered hydraulic motion control and electronic controls into construction, agriculture, material handling, and energy markets. FY2025 revenue of $839.0 million split roughly 64% Hydraulics and 36% Electronics, and the business generates meaningful free cash flow. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Application-specific cartridge valves, manifolds, quick-release couplings, and custom electronic controls create switching costs when customers design these components into their machines. Scale and distribution through Sun Hydraulics, Faster, and Enovation Controls add moderate protection. | Medium |
| Management | Management is executing well in the current cycle. Q1 2026 beat estimates with 17% sales growth, guidance was raised, the dividend was increased to $0.12 per quarter, and the 118th consecutive quarterly cash dividend was paid. The Faster entry into data center thermal management shows an effort to add a growth vector. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | The trend is improving. FY2025 revenue rose 4.11% to $839.0 million and net income rose 24.1% to $48.4 million, and TTM revenue through April 2026 reached $871.9 million with TTM net income of $60.8 million. TTM operating cash flow was $132.2 million and TTM free cash flow was $107.9 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The valuation is full. The stock trades near 44x trailing GAAP earnings and about 27x forward adjusted earnings, with a 3.04 price-to-sales ratio and a 20.97 EV-to-EBITDA ratio. The multiple prices in a continued recovery and leaves little room for disappointment. | Medium |
| Technical trend | HLIO is in a strong uptrend after rising about 126% over 52 weeks, and it sits above the 200-day moving average near $68.17 but below the 50-day moving average near $82.89. The price pulled back from the 52-week high of $95.05 and is consolidating near $80. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are end-market cyclicality in hydraulics, customer concentration in construction and agriculture, acquisition integration, the new data center push that has not yet proven its revenue scale, and a premium valuation that could compress if growth slows. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for verified financials, market data, and valuation math that matched across StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. Lower for forward revenue and earnings estimates given limited small-cap analyst coverage. | High for data, medium for estimates |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. Helios is executing a genuine recovery with accelerating Q1 growth, but the stock already trades at a premium and the outcome depends on cyclical demand and margin execution from here. | Low to medium |
HLIO AI stock forecast
The HLIO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $80.21 August 3, 2026 market close and the FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint near $2.88. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $46, a base area near $87, and a bullish area near $131 before dividends, using adjusted EPS growth of 0%, 8%, and 15% and exit multiples of 16x, 24x, and 30x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$118 to $135
More likely if Helios sustains double-digit EPS growth, the Faster data center thermal management products ramp, electronics margins keep improving, industrial end-markets stay firm, and the market holds a 28x to 30x forward multiple on FY2028 adjusted earnings.
$82 to $96
More likely if adjusted EPS grows toward the analyst path of about $2.94 in FY2026 and $3.36 in FY2027, margins stabilize, and the stock trades in a 22x to 26x forward earnings range, consistent with the $88.50 average analyst price target.
$40 to $54
More likely if a downturn in construction, agriculture, or energy markets cuts demand, margins compress, acquisition integration disappoints, and the market prices HLIO below 17x forward earnings.
HLIO AI technical analysis
HLIO AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows an uptrend that is consolidating. The stock closed at $80.21 at 4:00 PM EDT on August 3, up 2.30 or 2.95% from the $77.91 July 31 close, after pulling back from the 52-week high of $95.05 set on June 25, 2026. The stock is above the 200-day moving average near $68.17 but below the 50-day moving average near $82.89, with a 14-day RSI near 49.18 on StockAnalysis.com statistics. Barchart reported a 56% Buy technical opinion with a weakening short-term outlook and long-term indicators that still support the trend. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $80.21 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 2.30 or 2.95% from the $77.91 July 31 close after opening at $78.22 and trading in a range of $78.22 to $80.43; the after-hours quote was $80.67. |
| Near resistance | $81.02 to $81.83 | Barchart turning points showed first resistance at $81.02 and second resistance at $81.83 from recent price data as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff. |
| Upper resistance | $83.23 | Barchart turning points showed third resistance at $83.23, near the recent early-July trading area. |
| Near support | $78.81 | Barchart turning points showed first support at $78.81 from recent price data as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff. |
| Secondary support | $76.60 to $77.41 | Barchart turning points showed second support at $77.41 and third support at $76.60, below the current price. |
| 50-day moving average | $82.89 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $82.89 on August 3, 2026, just above the current price, so the stock is consolidating below its medium-term average. |
| 200-day moving average | $68.17 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $68.17 on August 3, 2026, below the current price and confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Fibonacci retracements | 61.8% at $72.29, 50% at $65.26, 38.2% at $58.24 | Barchart listed Fibonacci retracement levels from the 52-week range of $35.48 to $95.05, which mark potential deeper pullback zones. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49.18 | The 14-day RSI was near 49.18 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral after the pullback from the highs. Traders should confirm RSI, MACD, and stochastic on a live chart. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 276,539 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 276,539 shares on August 3, 2026. A breakout or breakdown on above-average volume would carry more technical weight. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.25 to 1.27 | Barchart reported 60-month beta near 1.25 and StockAnalysis.com reported 5-year beta near 1.27, so HLIO is about 25% more volatile than the broad market and position sizing should account for it. |
| Invalidation | Close below $76.60, then below $72.29 | A sustained close below the $76.60 third support would weaken the near-term structure. A break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $72.29 would challenge the recovery trend, and a break below the 200-day average near $68.17 would undermine the longer-term uptrend. |
HLIO AI trading strategy
The HLIO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, and it does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price.
Look for HLIO to reclaim and hold above the 50-day moving average near $82.89 and work toward the $83.23 resistance and beyond. Confirmation should include improving volume, a firmer 14-day RSI, and stable industrial end-market data from the next earnings report on August 10, 2026.
A close back below $78.81 or a clear loss of momentum should reduce confidence in the recovery trend. Position size should account for the roughly 1.25 beta.
If HLIO pulls back toward the $72 to $76 support cluster with no fundamental deterioration, evaluate whether the raised guidance, Q1 beat, operating cash flow, and industrial demand data still support the recovery before re-entry.
Do not average down on a cyclical business solely because the stock has fallen. Use defined stop levels near the 61.8% retracement at $72.29 and check earnings timing before the August 10, 2026 report.
Track the August 10, 2026 Q2 report, quarterly revenue growth, Hydraulics and Electronics segment margins, operating cash flow, debt levels, acquisition news, and the data center thermal management ramp at Faster.
Reduce exposure if revenue growth stalls, margins contract for two consecutive quarters, the data center push fails to add material revenue, or end-market indicators deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Helios Technologies engineers and manufactures precision hydraulic cartridge valves, manifolds, quick-release couplings, and electronic controls that customers build into construction, agriculture, material handling, and industrial machinery. Customers pay for reliable, application-specific motion and fluid control.
The moat comes from application-specific engineering, customer switching costs from embedded hydraulic and electronic designs, a global distribution network through Sun Hydraulics, Faster, and Enovation Controls, and a track record of 118 consecutive quarterly dividends that now runs at $0.12 per quarter.
The thesis can fail if a downturn in construction, agriculture, or energy markets reduces demand for hydraulic and electronic controls, if key customer relationships are lost, if acquisition integration fails, if the new data center products take longer to scale than expected, or if margin improvement disappoints at a valuation near 44x trailing GAAP earnings.
Management demonstrated execution in Q1 2026 with a $228 million revenue beat, $0.80 adjusted EPS against a $0.69 consensus, a raised FY2026 outlook, a dividend increase, and the 118th consecutive quarterly payment. Capital allocation includes dividends, selective M&A, and investment in the Faster data center thermal management push.
Hydraulic and electronic control systems serve mature industrial end-markets with cyclical demand patterns. Growth tailwinds include automation, electrification of off-highway equipment, replacement demand, and the new data center thermal management opportunity, while headwinds include global industrial cycles and raw material costs.
At about 44x trailing GAAP earnings, 27x forward adjusted earnings, 3.04x sales, and 20.97x EV-to-EBITDA, the stock is priced for a continuing recovery and does not offer a deep margin of safety. A fair setup needs evidence that growth can keep compounding and that the multiple can hold or expand.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| HLIO price | $80.21 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 2.30 or 2.95% from the $77.91 July 31 close; after-hours quote $80.67 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.65 billion, verified as $80.21 x 33.05 million shares with a 0.04% deviation via financial_rigor.py | StockAnalysis.com market cap and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 33.05 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $839.0 million, up 4.11% from $805.9 million | StockAnalysis.com financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $48.4 million, up 24.1% | StockAnalysis.com financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue $871.9 million, TTM net income $60.8 million through April 2026 | StockAnalysis.com financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM operating cash flow | $132.2 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $107.9 million, with FCF per share of $3.27 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| GAAP EPS and PE (TTM) | GAAP EPS $1.82, GAAP PE near 44.05x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward PE | 26.85x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Other valuation ratios | PS 3.04x, PB 2.84x, P/FCF 24.57x, EV/EBITDA 20.97x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $228 million vs $220.02 million consensus, adjusted EPS $0.80 vs $0.69 consensus, sales up 17%; FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $2.75 to $3.00 and revenue guidance to $840 million to $870 million | TheFly earnings summary and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 6 analysts, average price target $88.50, low $80, high $100 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page via S&P Global and TipRanks | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.48 annualized at 0.62% yield, $0.12 per quarter, ex-dividend date July 10, 2026, 118th consecutive quarterly payment | StockAnalysis.com dividend history and Helios press release | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $35.48 to $95.05 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart price performance | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical support and resistance | Resistance $81.02 to $83.23, support $76.60 to $78.81, 50-day MA $82.89, 200-day MA $68.17, RSI 49.18 | Barchart turning points and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $64.2 million, total debt $368.3 million, net debt near $304 million, book value $936.4 million, debt-to-equity 0.39 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
This HLIO AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff and can be wrong.
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