First Horizon Corporation research snapshot
FHN AI stock analysis currently reads First Horizon Corporation as a Memphis-based Southern regional bank with about $84 billion in assets, relationship-driven commercial and consumer banking, wealth, fixed income capital markets, and mortgage services across 12 states. FY2025 net income available to common shareholders rose 29% to $956 million, or $1.87 EPS, and Q1 2026 NIAC was $257 million, or $0.53 EPS. As of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, FHN traded near $25.74 with a verified market cap of about $12.22 billion, roughly 12.9x TTM EPS near $1.99, and about 1.8x tangible book value near $14.34. The FHN AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price call because bank equities reprice quickly around rates, deposits, credit costs, capital ratios, and regional bank multiples.
Current price
$25.74
Market cap
$12.22 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Southern U.S. regional bank with improving earnings, moderate valuation, and credit-cycle risk
Trend status
Constructive intermediate uptrend, above the 50-day and 200-day averages with RSI near 66 and price close to the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Horizon earns spread income and fees from commercial banking, consumer and small business banking, private banking, wealth and trust, mortgage, and FHN Financial fixed income services. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Local deposit relationships, commercial treasury links, Southern branch density, switching friction, underwriting data, and capital markets capabilities help, but banking remains rate and service competitive. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman, President and CEO Bryan Jordan emphasizes safety and soundness, profitability, and growth. Capital return via buybacks and dividends has been active after the failed TD Bank merger, and the next test is credit discipline through the cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 NIAC rose to $956 million from $738 million in 2024. Q1 2026 NIAC was $257 million with ROTCE near 15.1%, NII of $667 million, and revenue of $862 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $25.74, FHN screens near 12.9x TTM EPS of $1.99, about 1.8x tangible book value of $14.34, and a dividend yield near 2.7% using a $0.70 annualized dividend assumption. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart is constructive, with price above the 50-day average near $24.67 and the 200-day average near $23.57 while RSI is near 66 and the stock trades close to its $26.56 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are credit losses, commercial real estate stress, deposit-cost competition, NIM compression, capital requirements, expense creep, and a lower market multiple for regional banks. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are rich and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because a leveraged bank equity can move sharply on macro, credit, and rate surprises. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FHN looks like a solid mid-size Southern franchise with better earnings momentum, but the current price already reflects part of the recovery and still depends on credit and deposit stability. | Medium |
FHN AI stock forecast
The FHN AI stock forecast is scenario-based because bank earnings and multiples can change quickly with rates and credit. Using the $25.74 price reference, TTM EPS of $1.99, and an audited three-year model with 8%, 4%, and -3% EPS growth paired with 14x, 11x, and 8x terminal PE, the mechanical targets point to about $35.1 in a bull case, $24.6 in a base case, and $14.5 in a bear case before dividends. A stronger outcome needs NIM and loan growth to hold, credit costs to stay controlled, deposits to remain stable, capital return to stay disciplined, and the market to keep a low-to-mid teens bank earnings multiple.
$32 to $36 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near high single digits, NIM stays near the mid-3% area, charge-offs remain controlled, deposits stay sticky, ROTCE holds near the mid-teens, and investors keep a multiple near 14x earnings.
$23 to $27 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows modestly, NIM is roughly stable, credit costs normalize higher but stay manageable, and the market applies a mid-cycle regional bank multiple near 11x earnings.
$13 to $16 before dividends
More likely if credit costs rise, CRE stress increases, deposit costs stay sticky, NIM compresses, capital return slows, or regional banks are valued closer to stressed tangible book value and single-digit earnings multiples.
FHN AI technical analysis
FHN AI technical analysis is constructive but extended as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance chart data showed a recent price near $25.74, a 50-day moving average near $24.67, a 200-day moving average near $23.57, RSI near 66.2, 20-day average volume near 4.50 million shares, and a 52-week range of $19.80 to $26.56. The stock is near the top of that range, so risk control matters more than chasing a single print.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.74 | Yahoo Finance chart data listed a recent last price near $25.74 as of the July 12, 2026 research cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $24.50 to $24.70 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $24.67 and is the first support zone after a push toward the 52-week high. |
| Deeper support | $23.40 to $23.70 | This range overlaps the 200-day moving average near $23.57 and would test whether the larger uptrend remains intact. |
| Near resistance | $26.00 to $26.60 | The stock is close to the $26.56 52-week high, so this zone needs earnings and credit confirmation rather than only momentum. |
| Upper resistance | $32 to $36 | This area aligns with the bullish scenario range and needs continued EPS growth plus a higher bank earnings multiple. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $24.67, 200-day near $23.57 | Price above both averages confirms positive trend structure, but distance from the lows and proximity to the high raise pullback risk. |
| Momentum | RSI near 66.2 | Momentum is constructive without extreme overbought readings, so a new entry framework still needs support holds and volume confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 4.50 million shares | Volume should be watched around earnings because FHN can gap on NIM, deposits, credit, capital, and buyback updates. |
| Volatility | Watch next earnings and rate path | Near-term volatility drivers include Q2 2026 results, Fed rate expectations, Southern CRE headlines, and regional bank sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24.50, then below $23.40 | A sustained break below the 50-day average would weaken the breakout. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger trend. |
FHN AI trading strategy
The FHN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with NIM, deposit trends, loan growth, credit losses, CET1, tangible book value, capital return, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for FHN to hold above the $24.50 to $24.70 support zone and break above $26.00 to $26.60 with earnings confirming stable deposits, controlled charge-offs, resilient NIM, and disciplined capital return.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $24.50 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals higher credit costs, weaker capital ratios, or deposit runoff.
If FHN pulls back toward the $23.40 to $23.70 200-day average while credit and deposits remain stable, compare the lower price with tangible book value near $14.34, TTM EPS, dividend coverage, and CET1.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if net charge-offs, CRE criticized assets, deposit beta, or CET1 deteriorate at the same time.
Track NII, NIM, average deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value per share, ROTCE, fixed income fee income, and share-repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect that FHN is a leveraged bank with macro and credit sensitivity, not a high-certainty compounding business with full pricing power.
Investment research summary
Customers pay First Horizon for deposit safekeeping, payments, commercial and consumer lending, treasury services, private banking, wealth and trust, mortgage banking, and fixed income capital markets through FHN Financial. The bank earns spread income on assets funded by deposits and wholesale funding, plus relationship-driven fees.
The moat comes from Southern market density, commercial relationship banking, deposit franchise stickiness, switching friction, underwriting data, regulatory licenses, and specialty fixed income capabilities. It is useful but not dominant because customers can still compare rates, credit terms, service quality, and digital convenience.
The thesis fails if credit costs spike, Southern CRE or commercial loans season poorly, deposit costs stay sticky, NIM compresses, capital requirements tighten, expense growth outruns revenue, or investors re-rate regional banks toward stressed tangible book value after another sector shock.
Bryan Jordan and the team have emphasized safety and soundness first, then profitability and growth, after the TD Bank merger termination. Capital return through buybacks and dividends has been a clear tool. The key-person and institutional question is whether underwriting and expense discipline hold when growth incentives rise.
Regional banks remain central to U.S. commercial credit, local deposits, wealth, and payments. The offset is that the sector faces deposit migration, fintech competition, digital service expectations, regulatory capital pressure, and higher scrutiny after bank stress cycles.
At $25.74, FHN prices in a meaningful earnings recovery and trades near the top of its 52-week range at roughly 12.9x TTM EPS and about 1.8x tangible book value. Margin of safety improves if EPS grows toward the bullish scenario without credit slippage, or if the stock falls closer to base-case levels while deposits, tangible book value, and capital remain sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.74 recent last price as of July 12, 2026 research cutoff | Yahoo Finance chart data for FHN | July 12, 2026 |
| Verified market cap | $12.22 billion using $25.74 price and 474.62 million shares | WSJ shares outstanding and local financial_rigor check | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 474.62 million shares | WSJ and MarketWatch key data for FHN | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 NIAC and EPS | $956 million NIAC and $1.87 EPS, up from $738 million and $1.36 in 2024 | First Horizon full-year 2025 earnings release and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings | $257 million NIAC, $0.53 EPS, $862 million revenue, $667 million NII, ROTCE 15.1% | First Horizon Q1 2026 earnings release and Yahoo Finance summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Assets, deposits, and loans | About $84.1 billion assets as of March 31, 2026; about $68 billion deposits and $64 billion loans at December 31, 2025 | First Horizon Q1 2026 release and 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| CET1 and NIM | Company CET1 10.63% at December 31, 2025; Q1 2026 CET1 about 10.5% and NIM about 3.52% | First Horizon 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 earnings coverage | July 12, 2026 |
| Tangible book value per share | About $14.34 in Q1 2026, up 9% year over year | First Horizon Q1 2026 earnings commentary | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation | PE 12.93x on $1.99 TTM EPS, about 1.79x tangible book using $14.34 TBV, dividend yield near 2.72% on $0.70 annualized dividend | WSJ EPS and local financial_rigor valuation check | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA near $24.67, 200-day MA near $23.57, RSI near 66.2, 20-day average volume near 4.50 million shares, 52-week range $19.80 to $26.56 | Yahoo Finance chart-derived moving averages and range data | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bull about $35.1, base about $24.6, bear about $14.5 using 8%/4%/-3% growth and 14x/11x/8x PE over 3 years | Local financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | July 12, 2026 |
This FHN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the cutoff date and can be wrong if rates, credit losses, deposits, capital rules, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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