First Horizon Corporation research snapshot
FHN AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads First Horizon Corporation as a Memphis-based Southern regional bank with about $84.4 billion in assets, relationship-driven commercial and consumer banking, wealth and trust, mortgage, and FHN Financial fixed income services across 12 states. The Q2 2026 report, released July 15, 2026, delivered net income available to common shareholders of $260 million, or $0.54 EPS, up 20% year over year from $0.45, with return on tangible common equity at 15.2%, net interest margin of 3.49%, period-end deposits up $1.6 billion to $68.1 billion, and a CET1 ratio of 10.5%. The stock closed at $25.64 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market cap of about $12.17 billion, roughly 12.9x trailing EPS near $1.99, and about 1.76x tangible book value of $14.53. The July 29, 2026 company-run stress test showed a projected stressed CET1 of 9.3% against a 4.5% minimum, and a stressed loan loss rate of 2.3% versus a 6.7% peer median. The FHN AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price call because bank equities reprice quickly around rates, deposits, credit costs, capital ratios, and regional bank multiples, and the stock already trades above its own 10-year average price to tangible book.
Current price
$25.64
Market cap
$12.17 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Southern U.S. regional bank with improving earnings, a stronger credit profile, and a valuation above its own long-run history
Trend status
Neutral to constructive: price above the 50-day and 200-day averages near $25.07 and $23.78, but below the $26.56 52-week high with RSI near 48
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Horizon earns spread income and fees from commercial banking, consumer and small business banking, private banking, wealth and trust, mortgage, and FHN Financial fixed income services. Q2 2026 total revenue was $887 million with ROTCE of 15.2%. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Local deposit relationships, commercial treasury links, Southern branch density, switching friction, underwriting data, and fixed income capabilities help, but banking remains rate and service competitive with limited pricing power on deposits. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman, President and CEO Bryan Jordan emphasizes safety and soundness, profitability, and growth. Q2 2026 included $100 million of buybacks at an average price of $24.52 and a $0.17 quarterly dividend, and the company passed its 2026 company-run stress test with a projected stressed CET1 of 9.3%. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 NIAC rose 12% year over year to $260 million, ROTCE was 15.2%, NIM was 3.49%, period-end deposits rose $1.6 billion sequentially to $68.1 billion, and first-half 2026 NIAC grew 16% versus first-half 2025. | High |
| Valuation | At $25.64, FHN screens near 12.9x TTM EPS of $1.99, about 1.76x tangible book value of $14.53, and a dividend yield near 2.65% using a $0.68 annualized dividend, which is above its own 10-year average price to tangible book. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart is neutral to constructive. Price holds above the 50-day average near $25.07 and the 200-day average near $23.78, RSI is near 48, and the stock sits below the $26.56 52-week high after pulling back from a mid-July peak. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are credit losses, commercial real estate stress, deposit-cost competition that is already pressuring NIM, higher noninterest expense, capital requirements, and a market that may not expand the multiple from current levels. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and market data are rich and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because a leveraged bank equity can move sharply on macro, credit, and rate surprises. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FHN looks like a solid mid-size Southern franchise with better earnings momentum and a strong stress test, but the current price already reflects part of the recovery and still depends on credit and deposit stability. | Medium |
FHN AI stock forecast
The FHN AI stock forecast is scenario-based because bank earnings and multiples can change quickly with rates and credit. Using the $25.64 price reference, TTM EPS near $1.99, and an audited three-year model with 12%, 6%, and -3% EPS growth paired with 13x, 11x, and 8x terminal PE, the mechanical targets point to about $36.3 in a bull case, $26.1 in a base case, and $14.5 in a bear case before dividends. A stronger outcome needs NIM to stabilize near 3.45% to 3.50%, loan and deposit growth to continue, credit costs to stay controlled, expense growth to stay contained, and the market to hold or raise the regional bank earnings multiple.
$32 to $38 before dividends
More likely if EPS compounds near low double digits, NIM stabilizes near the high 3.4% area, charge-offs remain controlled, deposits stay sticky, ROTCE holds near the mid-teens, and investors keep a multiple near 13x earnings.
$24 to $28 before dividends
More likely if EPS grows mid single digits, NIM is roughly stable, credit costs normalize higher but stay manageable, expenses grow modestly, and the market applies a mid-cycle regional bank multiple near 11x earnings.
$13 to $16 before dividends
More likely if credit costs rise, CRE stress increases, deposit costs stay sticky, NIM compresses below 3.4%, expense growth outruns revenue, capital return slows, or regional banks are valued closer to stressed tangible book value and single-digit earnings multiples.
FHN AI technical analysis
FHN AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, based on daily price data through the July 31, 2026 close of $25.64. StockAnalysis.com S&P Global data showed a 50-day moving average near $25.07, a 200-day moving average near $23.78, a 20-day average near $25.60, RSI near 47.7, 20-day average volume near 6.12 million shares, and a 52-week range of $19.80 to $26.56. The stock sits below the 52-week high after cooling from a mid-July post-earnings peak, so risk control matters more than chasing a single print.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.64 | Closing price on July 31, 2026 per StockAnalysis.com S&P Global daily history, which is the reference used for this August 3, 2026 research cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $25.00 to $25.10 | This area brackets the 50-day moving average near $25.07 and the round $25 level, and is the first support zone below the current price. |
| Deeper support | $23.70 to $23.90 | This range overlaps the 200-day moving average near $23.78 and would test whether the larger uptrend remains intact. |
| Near resistance | $26.00 to $26.60 | The stock is below the $26.56 52-week high, so a reclaim of the $26.00 area needs earnings, credit, and deposit confirmation rather than only momentum. |
| Upper resistance | $32 to $38 | This area aligns with the bullish scenario range and needs continued EPS growth plus a higher bank earnings multiple. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $25.07, 200-day near $23.78, 20-day near $25.60 | Price above all three averages keeps the trend structure intact, but proximity to the 20-day average and distance from the 200-day average reduce the room for error. |
| Momentum | RSI near 47.7 | Momentum is neutral, so a new entry framework still needs support holds and volume confirmation rather than a momentum chase. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 6.12 million shares | Volume was elevated around the July 15 earnings report and should be watched around the next report for NIM, deposits, credit, capital, and buyback updates. |
| Volatility | Watch next earnings and rate path | Near-term volatility drivers include Q3 2026 results, Fed rate expectations, deposit pricing, Southern CRE headlines, and regional bank sentiment. |
| Invalidation | Close below $25.00, then below $23.70 | A sustained break below the 50-day average would weaken the current setup. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger trend. |
FHN AI trading strategy
The FHN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with NIM, deposit trends, loan growth, credit losses, CET1, tangible book value, capital return, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for FHN to hold above the $25.00 to $25.10 support zone and reclaim $26.00 to $26.60 with earnings confirming stable deposits, controlled charge-offs, resilient NIM, contained expenses, and disciplined capital return.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $25.00 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals higher credit costs, weaker capital ratios, or deposit runoff.
If FHN pulls back toward the $23.70 to $23.90 200-day average while credit and deposits remain stable, compare the lower price with tangible book value near $14.53, TTM EPS, dividend coverage, and CET1.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if net charge-offs, CRE criticized assets, deposit beta, or CET1 deteriorate at the same time.
Track NII, NIM, average deposits, period-end deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value per share, ROTCE, fixed income fee income, expense growth, and share-repurchase pace.
Position sizing should reflect that FHN is a leveraged bank with macro and credit sensitivity, and that the stock already trades above its own 10-year average price to tangible book.
Investment research summary
Customers pay First Horizon for deposit safekeeping, payments, commercial and consumer lending, treasury services, private banking, wealth and trust, mortgage banking, and fixed income capital markets through FHN Financial. The bank earns spread income on assets funded by deposits plus relationship-driven fees, with total revenue of $887 million in Q2 2026.
The moat comes from Southern market density, commercial relationship banking, deposit franchise stickiness, switching friction, underwriting data, regulatory licenses, and specialty fixed income capabilities. It is useful but not dominant because customers can still compare rates, credit terms, service quality, and digital convenience, and deposit costs are rising.
The thesis fails if credit costs spike, Southern CRE or commercial loans season poorly, deposit costs stay sticky and compress NIM below 3.4%, expense growth outruns revenue, capital requirements tighten, or investors re-rate regional banks toward stressed tangible book value after another sector shock.
Bryan Jordan and the team have emphasized safety and soundness first, then profitability and growth, after the TD Bank merger termination. Q2 2026 included $100 million of buybacks at an average price of $24.52 and a $0.17 quarterly dividend, and the 2026 company-run stress test passed with a projected stressed CET1 of 9.3%. The key-person and institutional question is whether underwriting and expense discipline hold as growth and hiring continue.
Regional banks remain central to U.S. commercial credit, local deposits, wealth, and payments, and the 2026 environment of Fed rate cuts and resumed Southeast loan growth is supportive. The offset is that the sector faces deposit migration, fintech competition, digital service expectations, regulatory capital pressure, and higher scrutiny after bank stress cycles.
At $25.64, FHN prices in a meaningful earnings recovery at roughly 12.9x TTM EPS, about 1.76x tangible book value, and above its own 10-year average price to tangible book. Margin of safety improves if EPS grows toward the bullish scenario without credit slippage, or if the stock falls closer to base-case levels while deposits, tangible book value, and capital remain sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.64 closing price on July 31, 2026, the reference for the August 3, 2026 research cutoff | StockAnalysis.com daily price history and S&P Global data for FHN | August 3, 2026 |
| Verified market cap | $12.17 billion using $25.64 price and 474.62 million shares, 0.01% deviation | StockAnalysis.com shares outstanding and local financial_rigor check | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 474.62 million shares; 474 million period-end shares reported in Q2 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and First Horizon Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings | $260 million NIAC and $0.54 EPS, up 20% from $0.45 in Q2 2025; total revenue of $887 million; ROTCE of 15.2% | First Horizon Q2 2026 earnings release and SEC-filed exhibit | August 3, 2026 |
| NIM, deposits, and loans | Q2 2026 net interest margin of 3.49%, period-end deposits of $68.1 billion up $1.6 billion sequentially, period-end loans of $65.3 billion | First Horizon Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Assets and CET1 | About $84.4 billion in assets as of June 30, 2026; CET1 ratio of 10.5% | First Horizon Q2 2026 earnings release and 2026 stress test disclosure | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 company-run stress test | Projected stressed CET1 of 9.3% versus 4.5% minimum; stressed loan loss rate of 2.3% versus 6.7% peer median; PPNR to assets of 5.1% versus 3.0% peer median | First Horizon 2026 company-run stress test press release, July 29, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Tangible book value per share | $14.53 as of June 30, 2026, up 7% year over year from $13.57 | First Horizon Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation | PE near 12.9x on about $1.99 TTM EPS, about 1.76x tangible book using $14.53 TBV, dividend yield near 2.65% on $0.68 annualized dividend | Yahoo Finance statistics and local financial_rigor valuation check | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 19 analysts with an average price target of $27.95, low of $25 and high of $30 | StockAnalysis.com S&P Global analyst forecast data | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA near $25.07, 200-day MA near $23.78, 20-day MA near $25.60, RSI near 47.7, 20-day average volume near 6.12 million shares, 52-week range $19.80 to $26.56 | StockAnalysis.com daily price data and local technical calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bull about $36.3, base about $26.1, bear about $14.5 using 12%/6%/-3% growth and 13x/11x/8x PE over 3 years | Local financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
This FHN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on public data available at the August 3, 2026 cutoff date and can be wrong if rates, credit losses, deposits, capital rules, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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