F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. research snapshot
FG AI stock analysis currently reads F&G Annuities & Life as a low-multiple annuity and life insurance writer where record assets under management, a shift toward fee-based and capital-light business, a new $100 million buyback, S&P SmallCap 600 inclusion, and A (AM Best) financial strength ratings support the bull case, while spread compression, interest rate sensitivity, a leadership transition, and meaningful ownership concentration to FNF limit certainty. The stock traded near $28.88 on August 3, 2026, and the market cap was independently verified at about $3.83 billion based on approximately 132.5 million shares. This FG AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise, and should be used as an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$28.88
Market cap
$3.83 billion
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Spread-based annuity franchise transitioning to a more fee-based, higher-margin model with low P/E and P/B, but a recent CEO transition, limited moat, and insurance earnings volatility
Trend status
Long-term uptrend with neutral short-term trend, price above SMA50 ($28.47) and SMA200 ($28.34), RSI near 45.4, technical rating 6/10 with a consolidating daily setup
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FG sells fixed indexed annuities, multi-year guarantee annuities, registered index-linked annuities, indexed universal life, and pension risk transfer solutions to retail and institutional clients through independent agents, banks, and broker-dealers. Q1 2026 brought record assets under management before reinsurance of $74.5 billion. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Distribution relationships with 82,000+ licensed agents, multi-decade brand in fixed annuity markets, A (AM Best) ratings, and scale in indexed annuity product design create a moderate moat. Competition from carriers with stronger balance sheets and lower-cost distribution narrows the advantage. | Medium |
| Management | Chris Blunt retired as CEO effective June 30, 2026 and remains a Director, while Conor Murphy, the former President and CFO, now serves as CEO and President. Michael Bailey joined as CFO on August 3, 2026. The leadership change is a key watch item, along with the concentrated FNF ownership and the strategic review of owned distribution business Peak Altitude. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 adjusted net earnings were $110 million, or $0.82 per share, up from $91 million, or $0.72 per share, in Q1 2025. TTM revenue is about $6.01 billion and TTM net income to common is about $517 million. FY2025 net earnings of $248 million declined 60% from 2024, showing the cyclicality of spread-based results. | High |
| Valuation | At $28.88, audited math shows 7.58x TTM P/E, 0.88x book value, 0.70x sales, 3.30x levered FCF, and a 3.46% dividend yield. The valuation is low in absolute terms, and sub-10x P/E is common for spread-based life insurers, but the market is also assigning a below-book multiple because the normalized ROE is only in the high single digits. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ChartMill showed a technical rating of 6/10 with a 6/10 setup as of August 3, 2026. The daily indicator consensus was 2 buy, 4 neutral, 1 sell, with RSI near 45.4, MACD at -0.26, price above SMA50 ($28.47) and SMA200 ($28.34), and oversold daily stochastics near 9.06. The long-term trend is up but the short-term trend is neutral. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are spread compression, interest rate volatility, reserve inadequacy, PRT deal cadence unpredictability, the leadership transition and its execution, FNF ownership concentration, competition from larger life insurers, credit losses on the fixed income portfolio, dividend sustainability if earnings shrink, and insurance regulatory changes. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings, press releases, and third-party tables are current. Forecast confidence is medium because FG earnings can move with annuity sales volumes, PRT and opportunistic deal timing, investment spreads, and insurance reserve changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FG looks like a low-multiple annuity operator where the current price already reflects the risk that returns on capital are modest and earnings are lumpy. Investment certainty is medium-low because a durable compounding case requires evidence that FG can grow book value per share at double-digit rates consistently, and the new CEO must prove the fee-based strategy transition works. | Medium-low |
FG AI stock forecast
The FG AI stock forecast uses the $28.88 price reference, TTM EPS of $3.81, and a three-year valuation framework. The scenario model produced a bearish area near $18 to $21, a base area near $32 to $37, and a bullish area near $44 to $50 before dividends. These are scenario ranges based on a 6x to 10x earnings band, not guaranteed targets.
$44.00 to $50.00
More likely if FG sustains annuity sales growth, keeps winning PRT deals, successfully executes the shift to fee-based and capital-light business, maintains or widens investment spreads, executes the $100 million buyback at scale, grows book value at a mid single-digit rate, and the market re-rates FG toward 10x earnings.
$32.00 to $37.00
More likely if EPS drifts higher at a low single-digit rate, annuity sales stay steady but do not accelerate, PRT deals contribute modestly in most years, book value grows slowly, the new CEO preserves the strategy without disruption, and valuation holds near 8x earnings.
$18.00 to $21.00
More likely if spread income compresses, reserve charges emerge, PRT revenue disappoints, FG loses market share in indexed annuities to larger competitors, the leadership transition creates execution missteps, FNF governance concerns escalate, or the earnings multiple contracts toward 6x due to lower ROE or industry-wide multiple compression.
FG AI technical analysis
FG AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. FG traded near $28.88 on August 3, 2026 after a pullback from the July high near $33.46. ChartMill showed a technical rating of 6/10 with a 6/10 setup: RSI near 45.4, MACD at -0.26, SMA5 at $29.46, SMA20 at $29.89, SMA50 at $28.47, SMA100 at $27.23, and SMA200 at $28.34. The long-term trend is up but the short-term trend is neutral, and the stock has been consolidating near the lower part of its recent range.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $28.88 | August 3, 2026 intraday reference from ChartMill and StockAnalysis quote data. |
| Primary support zone | $28.47 to $28.59 | ChartMill identified a support zone formed by multiple trend lines and important moving averages in multiple time frames. |
| SMA50 support | $28.47 | The rising SMA50. Price holding above it supports the intermediate trend, and it sits inside the primary support zone. |
| Deeper support | $27.67 | A daily time frame trend line support, relevant if the stock breaks below the $28.47 to $28.59 zone. |
| Weekly horizontal support | $27.02 | A horizontal support in the weekly time frame that would be the main downside reference in a broader pullback. |
| Key lower support | $25.91 | A daily horizontal support level that would be the deep downside reference in a more severe correction. |
| Short moving averages | SMA5 $29.46, SMA10 $29.69, SMA20 $29.89 | Price is below the short-term moving averages, consistent with the neutral short-term trend after the recent pullback. |
| 100-day moving average | $27.23 | The SMA100 sits below price and below the SMA50, a supportive but not decisive technical signal. |
| 200-day moving average | $28.34 | The SMA200 is declining. Price is above it but the declining slope warns that the long-term trend is not yet firmly bullish. |
| Nearby resistance | $29.07 | ChartMill identified a daily horizontal resistance that caps the current consolidation range. |
| Primary resistance zone | $29.69 to $29.89 | ChartMill identified this as the main nearby resistance, formed by multiple trend lines and moving averages in the daily time frame. |
| Secondary resistance zone | $32.10 to $32.38 | A resistance zone from multiple trend lines that would be the next major target if FG clears the $29.69 to $29.89 area. |
| Weekly resistance | $33.62 | A weekly trend line resistance, coinciding with the recent swing high near $33.46, that would open the way to the 52-week high zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 45.4, MACD at -0.26 | Momentum is neutral to slightly negative. The RSI is in the middle of its range and MACD is slightly below zero, while daily stochastics near 9.06 point to a short-term oversold condition that can support a bounce. |
| Volume | Average daily volume about 684,000 to 827,000 shares | ChartMill reported average volume near 684K shares while Yahoo Finance showed average volume near 827K shares; recent trading has been lighter during the consolidation. |
| Volatility | ATR near 3.72% | FG can move quickly around earnings, PRT deal announcements, dividend declarations, interest rate surprises, and rating agency actions. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 5, 2026. |
| Invalidation | Close below $27.67 | A decisive break below the $27.67 daily trend line support would weaken the setup and suggest the pullback is deepening toward the $27.02 weekly support. |
FG AI trading strategy
The FG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects FG price action with annuity sales trends, PRT and opportunistic deal flow, net investment spread, book value growth, capital returns, the leadership transition, interest rate direction, and insurance sector sentiment.
Watch for FG to reclaim the SMA20 ($29.89) and clear the $29.69 to $29.89 resistance zone with volume, then target the $32.10 to $32.38 zone and the $33.62 weekly resistance while FG reports steady annuity sales, stable spreads, continuing buyback activity, and a smooth leadership transition.
A close below the $27.67 support, a PRT deal cancellation, spread guidance tightening, a dividend cut, or unexpected disruption from the CEO change should reduce trend-following confidence.
If FG holds the $28.47 to $28.59 support zone or the $27.67 trend line without a deterioration in annuity persistency, spread income, or book value, compare the entry price with the base and bear scenarios and watch whether oversold daily stochastics rotate higher.
Do not treat a low P/E or P/B alone as a buy signal if earnings, book value, or dividend coverage are declining rather than stabilizing, or if the leadership transition produces guidance changes.
Track FG quarterly gross and net annuity sales by product type, PRT and opportunistic premium volume, net investment spread, net investment income, adjusted return on equity, total adjusted capital, book value per share, dividends and buyback authorizations, and management commentary on the fee-based business mix.
Position sizing should reflect that FG is an annuity writer with parent-company concentration risk, meaning public minority shareholders have limited control over strategic decisions, payout timing, and capital allocation.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FG for principal protection, market-linked growth, and guaranteed lifetime income through annuities, or death-benefit protection through life insurance. FG earns the spread between what it credits to policyholders and what it earns on its investment portfolio, plus fees, and is deliberately shifting toward fee-based and capital-light business.
FG has distribution reach, multi-decade brand presence in fixed annuities, A ratings, and niche PRT capabilities. The moat narrows when larger life insurers compete on price in indexed annuities, interest rates compress spreads, or PRT buyers favor carriers with higher ratings or lower fees.
The thesis fails if FG cannot maintain investment spreads above policyholder crediting rates, if actuarial assumptions on reserves prove optimistic, if PRT or opportunistic transaction flow dries up, if the new CEO and CFO cannot execute the fee-based strategy transition, if FNF extracts excess capital, or if a rating downgrade hurts new business sales.
Conor Murphy became CEO and President on June 30, 2026 after Chris Blunt retired, and Michael Bailey joined as CFO on August 3, 2026. The main governance risk is that FG operates as a majority-owned subsidiary of FNF, which can appoint directors, approve major transactions, and influence capital allocation in ways that may not fully align with minority public shareholders.
Fixed indexed annuities and PRT benefit from an aging U.S. population seeking guaranteed income, higher rate environments that improve product attractiveness, and corporate demand for pension de-risking. The risk is that spread compression, low interest rate cycles, and regulatory changes can each reduce profitability for an extended period.
At $28.88, FG trades at 7.58x TTM earnings and 0.88x book value. These multiples look low, but the margin of safety depends on whether book value and earnings can grow at a consistent double-digit rate, and the market is pricing a modest single-digit ROE. A below-book multiple on an insurer with a new CEO provides less safety than the multiples alone suggest.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FG price reference | $28.88 intraday on August 3, 2026; $29.13 close on July 30, 2026 | ChartMill, StockAnalysis, and Yahoo Finance FG quotes | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.83 billion calculated from $28.88 x about 132.48 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py, StockAnalysis, and public filings cross-check | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $6.01 billion revenue and $517 million net income to common | Yahoo Finance key statistics and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and PE | $3.81 EPS and 7.58x P/E at $28.88 | Yahoo Finance quote summary and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Audited math: 7.58x P/E, 0.88x P/B, 0.70x P/S, 3.30x P/FCF, 3.46% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using Yahoo Finance inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Book value per share | About $32.75 (Q1 2026, reported); about $34.13 implied by 0.88x P/B on $28.88 | F&G Q1 2026 earnings release and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | About $1.16 billion levered free cash flow (TTM) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Return on equity | About 11.72% TTM ROE; adjusted ROE ex AOCI of 8.4% in Q1 2026 | Yahoo Finance key statistics and F&G Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | About $4.83 billion | Yahoo Finance enterprise value | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.00 annualized, about 3.46% yield, ex-date June 16, 2026 | Yahoo Finance dividend data and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Financial strength ratings | AM Best A (Stable) as of 3/2026, S&P A- (Stable) as of 9/2025, Fitch A- (Stable) as of 10/2025, Moody's A3 (Stable) as of 10/2025 | F&G company website | August 3, 2026 |
| Daily technical indicators | RSI 45.4, MACD -0.26, SMA5 $29.46, SMA10 $29.69, SMA20 $29.89, SMA50 $28.47, SMA100 $27.23, SMA200 $28.34 | ChartMill FG technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Support and resistance | Support $28.47-$28.59, $27.67, $27.02, $25.91; resistance $29.07, $29.69-$29.89, $32.10-$32.38, $33.62 | ChartMill FG support and resistance levels | August 3, 2026 |
| Leadership transition | Conor Murphy became CEO and President on June 30, 2026; Michael Bailey joined as CFO on August 3, 2026 | F&G press release on executive leadership transitions | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Adjusted net earnings $110 million or $0.82 per share; AUM before reinsurance $74.5 billion | F&G Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026, and may be wrong if F&G Annuities & Life annuity sales, investment spreads, reserve adequacy, PRT deal flow, interest rates, the leadership transition, FNF strategic decisions, competitive dynamics, or insurance market multiples change.
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