F&G Annuities & Life, Inc. research snapshot
FG AI stock analysis currently reads F&G Annuities & Life as a low-multiple annuity and life insurance writer where indexed annuity growth, pension risk transfer deals, excess capital returns, and A-(AM Best) financial strength ratings support the bull case, while spread compression, interest rate sensitivity, reserve adequacy uncertainty, and meaningful ownership concentration to FNF limit certainty. The stock closed at $29.67 on July 10, 2026, and the market cap was independently verified at about $3.93 billion based on approximately 132.5 million shares. This FG AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise, and should be used as an information tool rather than investment advice.
Current price
$29.67
Market cap
$3.93 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Spread-based annuity franchise with PRT optionality, low P/E and P/B, but limited moat and insurance earnings volatility
Trend status
Short-term uptrend with price above SMA50 ($27.88) and SMA200 ($28.39), RSI near 63.6, moderately constructive daily indicators
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FG sells fixed indexed annuities, multi-year guarantee annuities, registered index-linked annuities, indexed universal life, and pension risk transfer solutions to retail and institutional clients through independent agents, banks, and broker-dealers. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Distribution relationships with 82,000+ licensed agents, multi-decade brand in fixed annuity markets, A- (AM Best) ratings, and scale in indexed annuity product design create a moderate moat. Competition from carriers with stronger balance sheets and lower-cost distribution narrows the advantage. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Chris Blunt and the leadership team emphasize indexed annuity growth, PRT expansion, capital return, and expense discipline. Key risks include the concentrated FNF ownership (governance influence), key-person risk if senior leaders depart, and the challenge of growing higher-ROE product lines without compromising underwriting. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 annual results showed growth in annuity sales but also the cyclically of spread-based earnings. Q1 2026 showed improved profitability with net earnings supporting the dividend and buyback program. TTM revenue is about $6.01 billion and TTM net income to common is about $517 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $29.67, audited math shows 7.69x TTM P/E, 0.85x book value, 0.71x sales, 3.39x levered FCF, and a 3.37% dividend yield. The valuation is low in absolute terms but the insurance industry context matters: sub-10x P/E is common for spread-based life insurers when the ROE is in the low double digits. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ChartMill showed a technical rating of 7/10 with a 4/10 setup. The daily indicator consensus was 4 buy, 2 neutral, 1 sell, with RSI near 63.57, MACD positive at 0.25, and price above SMA50 ($27.88) and SMA200 ($28.39). The short-term trend is up but the medium-term trend is neutral. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are spread compression, interest rate volatility, reserve inadequacy, PRT deal cadence unpredictability, FNF ownership concentration, competition from larger life insurers, credit losses on the fixed income portfolio, dividend sustainability if earnings shrink, and insurance regulatory changes. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high because filings and third-party tables are current. Forecast confidence is medium because FG earnings can move with annuity sales volumes, PRT deal timing, investment spreads, and insurance reserve changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FG looks like a low-multiple annuity operator where the current price already reflects the risk that returns on capital are modest and earnings are lumpy. Investment certainty is medium-low because a durable compounding case requires evidence that FG can grow book value per share at double-digit rates consistently. | Medium-low |
FG AI stock forecast
The FG AI stock forecast uses the $29.67 price reference, TTM EPS of $3.86, and a three-year valuation framework. The scenario model produced a bearish area near $19 to $21, a base area near $32 to $37, and a bullish area near $46 to $51 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed targets.
$46.00 to $51.00
More likely if FG sustains annuity sales growth, consistently wins PRT deals, maintains or widens investment spreads, executes buybacks at scale, grows book value at a mid-to-high single-digit rate, and the market re-rates FG toward 10x earnings or 1.1x book value.
$32.00 to $37.00
More likely if EPS drifts higher at a low single-digit rate, annuity sales stay steady but do not accelerate, PRT deals contribute modestly in most years, book value grows slowly, and valuation holds near 8x to 9x earnings.
$19.00 to $21.00
More likely if spread income compresses, reserve charges emerge, PRT revenue disappoints, FG loses market share in indexed annuities to larger competitors, FNF governance concerns escalate, or the earnings multiple contracts toward 5x due to lower ROE or industry-wide multiple compression.
FG AI technical analysis
FG AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. FG closed at $29.67 on July 10, 2026. ChartMill showed daily indicators with a moderately constructive consensus: RSI near 63.57, MACD at 0.25, a 5-day SMA at $28.83, a 50-day SMA at $27.88, and a 200-day SMA at $28.39. The stock is in a short-term uptrend but the medium-term trend remains neutral by ChartMill classification.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.67 | July 10, 2026 close from Yahoo Finance and ChartMill quote data. |
| Primary support | $28.91 | ChartMill identified a horizontal support at $28.91 in the daily time frame. |
| Medium support zone | $27.78 to $28.00 | A support zone combining the SMA20 ($27.78), SMA50 ($27.88), and multiple daily trend lines. |
| Deeper support | $27.02 to $27.33 | A secondary support zone from multiple daily trend lines, relevant if the stock corrects below the SMA50. |
| Key lower support | $25.91 | A daily horizontal support level that would be the main downside reference in a broader pullback. |
| Short moving average | $28.83 | The 5-day SMA was below the close, consistent with a positive short-term trend. |
| 50-day moving average | $27.88 | The SMA50 is rising. Price holding above it supports the intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $28.39 | The SMA200 is declining. The price is above it but the declining slope warns that the long-term trend is not yet firmly bullish. |
| Primary resistance zone | $29.68 to $29.78 | ChartMill identified this as the main nearby resistance from multiple daily trend lines, coinciding with the recent high. |
| Secondary resistance | $33.72 | A weekly trend line resistance that would be the next major target if FG clears the $29.68 area. |
| Momentum | RSI near 63.57, MACD at +0.25 | Momentum is positive but not extreme. The RSI in the low 60s leaves room for further upside without overbought risk, but the daily stochastics near 89.53 warn of short-term overextension. |
| Volume | Average daily volume about 766,000 shares | Recent volume was lower than average during the recent up move, which reduces conviction on the breakout quality. |
| Volatility | ATR near 3.06% | FG can move quickly around earnings, PRT deal announcements, dividend declarations, interest rate surprises, and rating agency actions. |
| Invalidation | Close below $27.78 | A decisive break below the SMA20 and SMA50 area would weaken the short-term setup and suggest the uptrend needs to reset. |
FG AI trading strategy
The FG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects FG price action with annuity sales trends, PRT deal flow, net investment spread, book value growth, capital returns, interest rate direction, and insurance sector sentiment.
Watch for FG to hold above SMA50 ($27.88) and SMA200 ($28.39), clear the $29.68 to $29.78 resistance zone with volume, and then target the $33.72 weekly trend line resistance while FG reports steady annuity sales, stable spreads, and continuing buyback activity.
A close below the SMA20-SMA50 zone near $27.78, a PRT deal cancellation, spread guidance tightening, or a dividend cut should reduce trend-following confidence.
If FG pulls back toward the SMA200 near $28.39 or the $27.02 to $27.33 support zone without a deterioration in annuity persistency, spread income, or book value, compare the entry price with the base and bear scenarios.
Do not treat a low P/E or P/B alone as a buy signal if earnings, book value, or dividend coverage are declining rather than stabilizing.
Track FG quarterly gross and net annuity sales by product type, PRT premium volume, net investment spread, net investment income, interest-sensitive and life insurance reserves, total adjusted capital, book value per share, operating ROE, and dividends and buyback authorizations.
Position sizing should reflect that FG is an annuity writer with parent-company concentration risk, meaning public minority shareholders have limited control over strategic decisions, payout timing, and capital allocation.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FG for principal protection, market-linked growth, and guaranteed lifetime income through annuities, or death-benefit protection through life insurance. FG earns the spread between what it credits to policyholders and what it earns on its investment portfolio, plus fees.
FG has distribution reach, multi-decade brand presence in fixed annuities, A- ratings, and niche PRT capabilities. The moat narrows when larger life insurers compete on price in indexed annuities, interest rates compress spreads, or PRT buyers favor carriers with higher ratings or lower fees.
The thesis fails if FG cannot maintain investment spreads above policyholder crediting rates, if actuarial assumptions on reserves prove optimistic, if PRT transaction flow dries up, if FNF extracts excess capital or imposes suboptimal strategy on the subsidiary, or if a rating downgrade hurts new business sales.
Chris Blunt leads FG with an insurance-industry background and a focus on indexed annuity innovation, PRT, and capital return. The main governance risk is that FG operates as a majority-owned subsidiary of FNF, which can appoint directors, approve major transactions, and influence capital allocation in ways that may not fully align with minority public shareholders.
Fixed indexed annuities and PRT benefit from an aging U.S. population seeking guaranteed income, higher rate environments that improve product吸引力, and corporate demand for pension de-risking. The risk is that spread compression, low interest rate cycles, and regulatory changes can each reduce profitability for an extended period.
At $29.67, FG trades at 7.69x TTM earnings and 0.85x book value. These multiples look low, but the margin of safety depends on whether book value and earnings can grow at double-digit rates. A single-digit ROE insurer trading near book value provides less safety than the multiples alone suggest.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FG quote reference | $29.67 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance FG quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $3.93 billion calculated from $29.67 x about 132.5 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py, Yahoo Finance, and public filings cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $6.01 billion revenue and $517 million net income to common | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS and PE | $3.86 EPS and 7.69x P/E | Yahoo Finance quote summary and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Audited math: 7.69x P/E, 0.85x P/B, 0.71x P/S, 3.39x P/FCF, 3.37% dividend yield | Pineify financial_rigor.py using Yahoo Finance inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| Book value per share | About $34.91 (implied by 0.85x P/B on $29.67) | Yahoo Finance price/book ratio calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | About $1.16 billion levered free cash flow (TTM) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Return on equity | About 11.72% TTM ROE | Yahoo Finance key statistics and financial_rigor.py ROE check | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | About $4.86 billion | Yahoo Finance enterprise value | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.00 annualized, 3.37% yield, ex-date June 16, 2026 | Yahoo Finance dividend data | July 12, 2026 |
| Financial strength ratings | AM Best A (Stable), S&P A- (Stable), Fitch A- (Stable), Moody's A3 (Stable) | F&G company website | July 12, 2026 |
| Daily technical indicators | RSI 63.57, MACD +0.25, SMA5 $28.83, SMA20 $27.78, SMA50 $27.88, SMA200 $28.39 | ChartMill FG technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Support and resistance | Support $28.91, $27.78-$28.00, $27.02-$27.33, $25.91; resistance $29.68-$29.78, $33.72 | ChartMill FG support and resistance levels | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and may be wrong if F&G Annuities & Life annuity sales, investment spreads, reserve adequacy, PRT deal flow, interest rates, FNF strategic decisions, competitive dynamics, or insurance market multiples change.
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