Ferguson Enterprises Inc. research snapshot
FERG AI stock analysis currently views Ferguson Enterprises as the largest value-added North American distributor of essential water and air solutions, with a dense branch network, scale purchasing, and disciplined capital returns. The July 31, 2026 close of $234.33 and a $45.45 billion market capitalization followed the July 31 announcement that FERG will join the S&P 500, while a $1.6 billion FloWorks acquisition expands the addressable market. The offset is still-soft residential demand, a 23.3x TTM earnings multiple, and a 3.3% free-cash-flow yield. This FERG AI stock analysis is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$234.33
Market cap
$45.45 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
High-quality distributor with improving momentum, still cyclical
Trend status
Rebounding above the 50-day average after the S&P 500 inclusion announcement
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ferguson distributes essential plumbing, HVAC, waterworks, and industrial flow-control products to professional contractors through a large branch and fulfillment network in the US and Canada. | High |
| Moat | Local inventory availability, field relationships, fulfillment capability, supplier access, data, and purchasing scale create practical switching costs, though distribution margins remain competitive. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Kevin Murphy has led the business since 2017 and continues to combine organic growth, acquisitions, productivity, dividends, and repurchases. The test is integrating FloWorks and the other 2026 deals without stretching the balance sheet. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | March-quarter sales rose 3.6% to $7.472 billion, adjusted operating profit rose 8.4% to $647 million, and adjusted EPS rose 9.1% to $2.28. Non-residential US revenue grew 8% while residential fell 1%. | High |
| Valuation | financial_rigor.py calculates about 23.3x TTM earnings, a 7.7x price-to-book, and a 3.3% free-cash-flow yield using a $234.33 price, $10.04 TTM EPS, and $7.72 TTM FCF per share. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $234.33 sits above the 50-day moving average of $230.23 and below the 200-day moving average of $240.25, with a 54 RSI, indicating a recovering but not yet confirmed uptrend. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate because Ferguson has durable professional demand, while housing, RMI activity, project timing, tariffs, commodity prices, acquisition integration, debt, and valuation can pressure results. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported sales, profit, cash, debt, shares, price, and ratio math are high-confidence. Future housing demand, FloWorks integration, and index-driven flows need live confirmation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Operating quality is strong, but the price near 23x TTM earnings requires continued execution and a residential recovery that has not yet arrived. | Medium |
FERG AI stock forecast
The FERG AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a promised target. A financial_rigor.py three-scenario model using $10.04 TTM EPS produced mechanical three-year outputs near $310 in a bull case, $240 in a base case, and $154 in a bear case before dividends, taxes, macro changes, and valuation volatility. Analyst consensus is Buy with a $279.42 twelve-month price target.
$250 to $310
More likely if non-residential project activity stays strong, residential and RMI demand recover, FloWorks and HVAC deals integrate cleanly, margins hold near guidance, and investors accept a higher earnings multiple after the S&P 500 inclusion.
$215 to $250
More likely if management delivers low to mid-single digit 2026 sales growth and a 9.4% to 9.8% adjusted operating margin while residential stays soft and valuation holds near current levels.
$154 to $215
More likely if housing and repair activity weaken further, project work slows, tariffs or deflation hurt gross profit, FloWorks integration disrupts returns, leverage rises, or the market re-rates FERG as a cyclical distributor.
FERG AI technical analysis
FERG AI technical analysis starts from the $234.33 July 31, 2026 close, which followed a 3.5% gain on the S&P 500 inclusion announcement. Price sits above the 50-day moving average of $230.23 and below the 200-day moving average of $240.25, with a 54 RSI and a 52-week range of $207.64 to $271.64. Confirm live chart values before acting on them.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $234.33 | Close on July 31, 2026, after a 3.5% gain tied to the S&P 500 inclusion announcement. The after-hours print was near $253. |
| Near support | Around $230 | The 50-day moving average of $230.23 is the first monitoring area. A loss of this level would weaken the near-term recovery. |
| Deeper support | $224 to $227 | The July 9 to July 10 closes of $224.62 and $227.46 mark the recent base. A sustained break below this zone would signal renewed weakness. |
| Near resistance | Around $240 | The 200-day moving average of $240.25 aligns with late-June closing highs near $238 to $241, making it the first major overhead test. |
| Key resistance | $253, then $271.64 | The July 31 after-hours reaction near $253 is the near-term hurdle, with the 52-week high of $271.64 as the outer reference. Neither is a live trade signal. |
| 50-day moving average | $230.23 | Price is above this level as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Confirm the live value before use. |
| 200-day moving average | $240.25 | Price is below this level as of the data cutoff. A reclaim would improve the longer-term trend picture. |
| Momentum | Improving | The rebound from late-July lows plus the S&P 500 inclusion jump support confirmation through price, moving averages, and volume rather than a single-day move. |
| Volume | Watch for confirmation | The July 31 volume was about 1.95 million shares, above the 20-day average near 1.26 million, which supports institutional participation in the move. |
| Volatility | Moderate cyclical-equity risk | The August 10 earnings report, housing data, project demand, commodity prices, tariff news, and index rebalancing flows can change the range quickly. |
| Invalidation | Sustained break below the $230 area | A persistent loss of the 50-day moving average, especially with weaker end-market data, weakens a trend or mean-reversion thesis. |
FERG AI trading strategy
The FERG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a cyclical distribution business. It is not personalized advice. Pair it with current chart data, position sizing, the August 10 earnings date, and a predefined loss limit.
Wait for FERG to reclaim and hold the $240 area above the 200-day moving average with live moving-average alignment and above-average volume. Confirm guidance and housing data before treating a move as durable.
Invalidate the setup on a sustained loss of the $230 area, a guidance reduction, or deteriorating residential and non-residential volume.
Monitor how FERG reacts around the S&P 500 inclusion effective date and the August 10 earnings report. Passive inflows often follow inclusion, but the move can be front-run.
Do not chase a pop already reflected in price. Reassess if the stock fails to hold the $230 area or if post-inclusion flows reverse.
Track US residential and non-residential sales, RMI demand, gross margin, adjusted operating margin, FloWorks and HVAC acquisition integration, capex, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, dividends, and repurchases.
Reduce confidence if acquisitions or shareholder returns increase debt without a matching improvement in organic growth or return on capital.
Investment research summary
Professional contractors pay Ferguson for product availability, reliable local delivery, technical know-how, credit, fabrication, and time savings across plumbing, HVAC, waterworks, and industrial flow-control jobs.
The moat is operational rather than patent-led: branch density, local inventory, field relationships, fulfillment capability, supplier access, data, and purchasing scale make the distributor useful in urgent jobsite workflows.
The thesis can fail if a prolonged housing and RMI downturn combines with commodity deflation, tariff costs, inventory mistakes, FloWorks or HVAC integration problems, project delays, or a multiple reset from cyclical earnings.
Kevin Murphy has long operating tenure and management continues to combine branch execution, acquisitions, dividends, and repurchases. The capital-allocation question is whether the $1.6 billion FloWorks deal and a $2.0 billion buyback authorization stay disciplined through a downturn.
Water infrastructure, large capital projects, climate and comfort needs, and aging housing create a broad addressable market that Ferguson sizes near $400 billion after FloWorks. The cycle remains sensitive to rates, housing starts, labor availability, material prices, and trade policy.
At about 23.3x TTM earnings and a 3.3% calculated free-cash-flow yield, FERG is priced for continued execution and a residential recovery. Margin of safety improves if end-market weakness is reflected in price without damaging branch economics or balance-sheet flexibility.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FERG price | $234.33 on July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $45.45 billion, price times 193.94M shares | StockAnalysis, checked with financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 193.94 million | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net sales | $30.762 billion | Ferguson FY2025 results and StockAnalysis, cross-validated | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $1.856 billion | Ferguson FY2025 results and StockAnalysis, cross-validated | August 2, 2026 |
| March 2026 quarter net sales | $7.472 billion, up 3.6% | Ferguson first-quarter 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| March 2026 gross margin | 31.0%, up 30 basis points | Ferguson first-quarter 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| March 2026 adjusted operating profit | $647 million, up 8.4% | Ferguson first-quarter 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $820 million cash and $6.08 billion total debt | Ferguson first-quarter results and StockAnalysis, cross-validated | August 2, 2026 |
| Net debt to adjusted EBITDA | 1.0x at March 31, 2026 | Ferguson first-quarter 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 management outlook | Low to mid-single digit sales growth and 9.4% to 9.8% adjusted operating margin | Ferguson first-quarter 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, $279.42 average price target across 21 analysts | StockAnalysis forecast snapshot | August 2, 2026 |
This FERG AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation, technical trends, or market conditions change.
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