FirstCash Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
FCFS AI stock analysis currently reads FirstCash Holdings as a scaled pawn and point-of-sale finance operator with more than 3,300 pawn stores across the United States, Latin America, and the United Kingdom. FY2025 revenue reached $3.661 billion and GAAP net income reached $330.4 million, while first-quarter 2026 revenue increased 26% to $1.052 billion and same-store pawn receivables grew 19% in the U.S., 30% in Latin America on a local currency basis, and 29% in the U.K. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest close was $218.61 and the verified market capitalization was about $9.58 billion. The FCFS AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a certain price prediction, and this page is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$218.61 at the July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$9.58 billion verified market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Strong pawn operating momentum with meaningful leverage, AFF runoff, and acquisition execution risk
Trend status
Constructive medium-term trend above the 200-day average, with price slightly below the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | FirstCash combines pawn loans, second-hand retail, scrap jewelry sales, and AFF point-of-sale payment solutions. Pawn operations are the core earnings engine and benefit from recurring local demand for secured small-dollar liquidity and used merchandise. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from store density, local inventory knowledge, proprietary loan and point-of-sale systems, operating scale, regulatory experience, and a growing international platform. The industry remains fragmented, so brand and switching costs are not absolute. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Rick Wessel has led FirstCash since 2006. Management has compounded the store base, completed the H&T entry into the U.K., continued buybacks and dividends, and is pursuing Ramsdens. Long CEO tenure adds key-person and succession risk. The key test is whether growth remains disciplined as debt and integration demands rise. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 8% to $3.661 billion and GAAP net income rose 28% to $330.4 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 26% to $1.052 billion, GAAP net income rose 29% to $107.7 million, and TTM operating cash flow reached $613 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $218.61, exact math gives about 27.39x TTM EPS, 4.17x book value, 17.39x TTM free cash flow, and a 0.77% dividend yield. The price assumes continued earnings growth and a premium multiple for a financial and retail operator. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest close is slightly below the StockAnalysis 50-day average of $222.40 but well above the 200-day average of $184.45. RSI was 45.11 in the available technical snapshot, suggesting cooling momentum rather than an extreme overbought reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is moderate to high. Material risks include consumer credit and lease losses, regulatory changes, labor costs, gold and scrap prices, foreign exchange, debt service, AFF merchant concentration, and the integration or financing of acquisitions. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company filings and market data align on the major facts. Forecast confidence is medium because the next quarter was not available at the cutoff and the acquisition pipeline can change the earnings base. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | FCFS is easier to understand than to value precisely. Investment certainty depends on pawn receivable growth converting into sustainable fee and merchandise earnings while leverage remains controlled. | Medium |
FCFS AI stock forecast
The FCFS AI stock forecast is a mechanical three-year scenario range, not a promise. Using the July 10 close of $218.61 and TTM EPS of $7.98, the audited model used 12%, 8%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with 28x, 23x, and 17x exit PE assumptions. It produced reference values of $313.9 for the bullish case, $231.2 for the base case, and $98.9 for the bearish case before dividends. These outputs show how sensitive FCFS is to both earnings growth and the valuation multiple.
$285 to $330
More likely if U.S., Latin America, and U.K. same-store pawn receivables remain strong, retail margins hold, AFF stabilizes after merchant bankruptcies, H&T integrates well, Ramsdens closes on expected terms, and the market continues to value FCFS near the high-20s PE range.
$215 to $250
More likely if pawn growth moderates but stays positive, AFF remains profitable with a smaller contribution, TTM EPS compounds near 8%, debt trends gradually improve, and the market values FCFS near 23x earnings.
$90 to $115
More likely if pawn demand weakens, credit and lease losses rise, gold or merchandise margins fall, the peso or pound weakens, acquisitions require more debt, or investors re-rate the stock toward 17x earnings after an earnings miss.
FCFS AI technical analysis
FCFS AI technical analysis is constructive over the medium term but less decisive in the short term. The July 10, 2026 close of $218.61 was below the available 50-day moving average of $222.40 and above the 200-day moving average of $184.45. The same snapshot showed RSI of 45.11, average 20-day volume of about 571,766 shares, a 52-week range of $119.21 to $235.97, and beta of 0.53. Technical data can lag the live market, so these levels are tied to the July 12 cutoff.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $218.61 | StockAnalysis close on July 10, 2026, used for market-cap and valuation math at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. |
| Near resistance | $222.40 | The available 50-day moving average. A sustained close above it would improve the short-term trend signal. |
| Major resistance | $235.97 | The available 52-week high. A breakout would require confirmation from volume and operating data rather than price alone. |
| Trend support | $184.45 | The available 200-day moving average. A close below this level would weaken the medium-term trend structure. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI 45.11 | The available RSI snapshot was below 50 and far from an extreme reading, which is consistent with cooling momentum. |
| Volume | About 571,766 shares average over 20 days | Use volume confirmation when assessing a breakout above the 50-day average or a breakdown below the 200-day average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.53 and 52-week change of +59.16% | The low beta does not remove event risk around earnings, acquisitions, credit losses, currencies, or regulatory changes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $184.45 | A decisive close below the 200-day average would invalidate the constructive medium-term trend framework used here. |
FCFS AI trading strategy
The FCFS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a growth-oriented pawn operator with a small dividend and meaningful debt. It is not personal advice. Pair any framework with current quotes, filings, position sizing, liquidity checks, and a predefined loss limit.
Watch for a close above the $222.40 50-day average followed by a test of the $235.97 52-week high, with volume and same-store pawn receivables confirming the move.
A failed breakout or a close back below the 50-day average weakens the short-term setup. A close below $184.45 invalidates the medium-term trend thesis.
If FCFS pulls toward the $184.45 200-day average without a deterioration in pawn receivables, retail margins, or debt metrics, compare valuation with the new earnings base before treating the pullback as an opportunity.
Do not average down solely because price is lower. Exit the setup if credit losses, AFF losses, acquisition funding, or currency pressure change the fundamental case.
Track same-store pawn receivables, pawn loan fees, merchandise sales and margins, scrap jewelry results, AFF transaction volume and losses, net debt to adjusted EBITDA, store additions, H&T integration, and Ramsdens approvals.
Reduce confidence if earnings growth depends on acquisitions while organic receivables slow, cash conversion weakens, leverage rises, or loss provisions increase faster than revenue.
Investment research summary
Customers pay FirstCash for fast, secured small-dollar liquidity and access to affordable used merchandise. The company earns pawn fees, retail margins, scrap jewelry revenue, and point-of-sale finance income through AFF. Pawn operations account for more than 90% of net revenue, making the core business easier to understand than a diversified lender.
The strongest advantages are local store density, accumulated pricing and inventory data, trained store teams, proprietary loan management systems, purchasing scale, and regulatory knowledge across several countries. The moat can widen through acquisitions, but the underlying industry remains fragmented and customers can often compare other lenders and retailers.
The thesis fails if pawn receivable growth is temporary, merchandise margins normalize lower, credit and lease losses rise, AFF loses merchant volume, regulators restrict products, currency translation hurts reported earnings, or acquisitions add debt faster than they add cash earnings. The pending Ramsdens deal adds approval and integration uncertainty.
Rick Wessel has served as CEO since 2006 and has overseen the expansion from a North American pawn platform to a 3,300-plus-store international network. Recent decisions include the H&T acquisition, continued store openings, real estate purchases, buybacks, and dividends. The key management question is whether capital allocation remains disciplined at a premium stock valuation.
Pawn services sit at the intersection of consumer liquidity, second-hand retail, gold and jewelry markets, and financial inclusion. The U.S., Mexico, and U.K. markets are fragmented, leaving room for consolidation and operating scale. The counterforce is regulation, competition from digital lenders and online marketplaces, and the possibility that stronger consumer finances reduce demand for pawn loans.
At $218.61, FCFS trades near 27.39x TTM EPS and 17.39x TTM free cash flow, while the dividend yield is below 1%. The valuation can work if the 2026 pawn growth outlook converts into durable earnings and acquisitions are accretive. Margin of safety is limited if the multiple contracts or debt stays elevated.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FCFS price and market cap | $218.61 close on July 10, 2026; $9.58 billion market cap, verified as $218.61 x 43.84 million shares with 0.04% variance | StockAnalysis quote and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 43.984696 million shares as of January 28, 2026 in the 10-K; StockAnalysis lists 43.84 million shares in its current statistics snapshot | FirstCash FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.661 billion GAAP revenue; FirstCash 10-K and StockAnalysis revenues before loan losses agree within 0.01% | FirstCash FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $330.4 million GAAP net income and $7.42 diluted EPS; StockAnalysis reports $330.38 million and $7.42 | FirstCash FY2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating update | $1.052 billion revenue, $107.7 million GAAP net income, $2.43 diluted EPS, and 19% U.S. same-store pawn receivable growth | FirstCash Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow and leverage | $613 million operating cash flow, $267 million adjusted free cash flow, and 2.9x actual net debt to adjusted EBITDA at March 31, 2026; pro forma leverage was 2.6x | FirstCash Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $130.7 million cash at March 31, 2026. StockAnalysis lists $2.61 billion total debt including its current debt definition; the Q1 release shows $2.254 billion of revolving and other long-term debt before lease liabilities. | FirstCash Q1 2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $222.40, 200-day moving average $184.45, RSI 45.11, average 20-day volume 571,766, and beta 0.53 | StockAnalysis statistics snapshot | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Using $218.61 price, $7.98 TTM EPS, three years, 12% / 8% / negative 10% growth, and 28x / 23x / 17x exit PE, financial_rigor.py produced $313.9 / $231.2 / $98.9 reference values | StockAnalysis inputs and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Pending Ramsdens acquisition | Recommended cash acquisition announced June 23, 2026 for approximately $273 million, subject to shareholder and customary U.K. regulatory approvals; the target has 174 pawn locations | FirstCash Ramsdens acquisition announcement | July 12, 2026 |
This FCFS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast values are scenario estimates based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Verify current prices, filings, tax effects, liquidity, and personal suitability before making any financial decision.
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