Etsy, Inc. research snapshot
ETSY AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Etsy as a cash-generative, asset-light marketplace that just completed a major portfolio simplification, but at a price that already reflects a meaningful recovery. The stock closed at $81.68 on July 31, 2026, after-hours near $81.10, with a market capitalization near $7.75 billion computed as $81.68 times roughly 94.9 million shares outstanding and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, which lists 94,887,000 shares as of March 31, 2026. Etsy completed the sale of Depop to eBay on July 30, 2026 for approximately $1.4 billion in cash, reflecting the $1.2 billion purchase price plus $200 million of net purchase price adjustments and interest, and management plans to use the proceeds to accelerate its share repurchase program. Q1 2026 Etsy marketplace GMS grew 5.5% year over year to $2.46 billion, active buyers grew sequentially for the first time in two years, GMS per active buyer reached $122 on a trailing twelve month basis, and the mobile app reached about 47% of total GMS. The stock trades above its 100-day average near $66.03 and 200-day average near $61.90 but below its 5-day average near $84.14 and just under its 20-day average near $81.70, while the next earnings report is scheduled for August 5, 2026 after market close. This page is an informational research tool and is not investment advice.
Current price
$81.68
Market cap
$7.75 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative marketplace at a demanding price
Trend status
Uptrend above the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, cooling below its short-term averages near the 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Etsy is an asset-light two-sided marketplace that monetizes differentiated and personalized inventory, seller tools, advertising, payments, listing activity, and shipping services, with a TTM revenue near $2.86 billion and a Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of 29.3%. | High |
| Moat | The moat is strongest in unique merchandise, seller inventory, search and recommendation data, brand, trust, and community identity, but it is not a hard barrier against Amazon, eBay, Temu, Shein, social commerce, or specialist resale platforms. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Kruti Patel Goyal has more than 15 years at Etsy and is focusing on discovery, personalization, loyalty, and marketplace health; the completed Depop sale for about $1.4 billion in cash and the plan to accelerate buybacks show a clearer capital allocation focus, but the leadership transition and execution record still need monitoring. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 2.68% to $2.884 billion while net income fell 46.26% to $162.98 million; Q1 2026 Etsy marketplace GMS grew 5.5% to $2.46 billion, revenue grew 7.6% for the Etsy marketplace, and TTM free cash flow was about $671 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $81.68, the financial rigor check gives about 32.9x trailing EPS, 2.67x sales, and 10.9x trailing free cash flow per share, so the market is paying for a recovery rather than a distressed asset, and the price sits above the $77.38 analyst consensus target. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ETSY closed at $81.68 on July 31, 2026, above its 100-day average near $66.03 and 200-day average near $61.90, but below its 5-day average near $84.14 and just below its 20-day average near $81.70, with 14-day RSI near 54 and 14-day ADX near 39. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are weak buyer frequency, discretionary consumer spending, AI search disintermediation, competition, counterfeit and trust issues, international trade friction including tariffs and import cost pass-through, high short interest near 22.8% of shares outstanding, and the execution of buybacks with the Depop proceeds. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive evidence is strong and cross-checked, but any stock price range depends on assumptions about GMS, margins, cash returns, tariffs, and the market multiple, and the August 5 earnings report is a near-term swing factor. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Certainty is below the AI research confidence because the business generates cash and just simplified its portfolio, but growth recovery, buyer engagement, and margin of safety are not yet established at the current price. | Medium-low |
ETSY AI stock forecast
The ETSY AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a precise price prediction. A three-year framework around the July 31, 2026 close of $81.68 produces a bearish area near $40 to $55, a base area near $60 to $80, and a bullish area near $90 to $110, depending on Etsy marketplace GMS growth, take rate, buyback execution with the Depop proceeds, and the valuation multiple. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$90 to $110
More likely if Etsy marketplace GMS stays positive and accelerates, active buyers and purchase frequency recover, AI and agentic discovery expand reach, take rate holds, the Depop proceeds fund well-timed buybacks, and the market assigns a higher multiple.
$60 to $80
More likely if GMS grows only in the low single digits, take rate remains stable near 25.7%, free cash flow stays healthy, buybacks proceed steadily, and investors value Etsy near its consensus target of $77.38 while buyer engagement improves slowly.
$40 to $55
More likely if active buyers and purchase frequency keep falling, AI search redirects demand away from the marketplace, discretionary demand weakens, tariffs and import costs hurt sellers, debt stays high, or the market compresses the multiple toward the low target of $58.
ETSY AI technical analysis
ETSY AI technical analysis shows a longer-term uptrend that is cooling near its highs as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The $81.68 close on July 31, 2026 sat above the cited 100-day moving average near $66.03 and the 200-day moving average near $61.90, but below the 5-day average near $84.14 and just under the 20-day average near $81.70, while the $87.26 52-week high remains overhead. Momentum is neutral with a 14-day RSI near 54, and a 14-day ADX near 39 confirms a strong trend, so risk controls matter ahead of the August 5 earnings report.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $81.68 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; after-hours near $81.10. |
| 5-day moving average | $84.14 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $84.14, above the July 31 close, which signals near-term momentum cooled after the recent highs. |
| 20-day moving average | $81.70 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $81.70, essentially at the July 31 close, making it the first overhead reference. |
| Near-term support | $77 to $80 | The $80 area is a psychological level and near the analyst median target, with the $77 area below it as the next reference before the 50-day average. |
| 50-day moving average | $74.88 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $74.88 as of the data cutoff; a close below it would weaken the near-term trend. |
| 100-day moving average | $66.03 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $66.03, well below price and confirming the medium-term uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | $61.90 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 200-day moving average near $61.90, the main medium-term trend reference. |
| Resistance | $84 to $87 | The 5-day average near $84.14 is near-term overhead, and the 52-week high of $87.26 is the main resistance. A breakout needs volume and fundamental confirmation from the August 5 report. |
| Momentum | Neutral, trending | Cited 14-day RSI near 54 on StockAnalysis.com and Barchart, with a 14-day ADX near 39 confirming a strong directional move rather than a range. |
| Volume and volatility | About 2.4M average volume; beta 1.84 | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 2.43 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 2.40 million, with 14-day historical volatility near 36.8%, so the stock can swing sharply around the August 5 earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $74.88 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average would invalidate the near-term uptrend framework; $61.90 is the deeper trend test. |
ETSY AI trading strategy
The ETSY AI trading strategy below is a framework, not personal advice. It treats Etsy as a higher-beta marketplace recovery where price trend, GMS, buyer frequency, free cash flow, debt, tariffs, and the buyback plan should be monitored together, with the August 5 earnings report as the near-term event.
Treat a reclaim of the 20-day average near $81.70 and a move toward the $84 to $87 resistance zone as actionable only when volume and marketplace metrics confirm it. The setup is healthier while price remains above the $74.88 50-day average.
Use a close below the 50-day average as a thesis review trigger, especially if it follows weaker GMS, buyer, tariff, or earnings guidance data.
A pullback toward the $74 to $80 support zone could improve the risk and reward balance if active buyers, GMS per buyer, free cash flow, and buyback progress remain stable after the Depop sale.
Do not average down solely because the price falls. Rebuild the valuation case if buyer frequency, trust metrics, cash generation, or tariff and import cost trends deteriorate.
Track the August 5, 2026 earnings report, Etsy marketplace GMS, active buyers, take rate, adjusted EBITDA margin, debt, buyback execution with the roughly $1.4 billion Depop proceeds, and the impact of tariffs and de minimis changes on sellers.
Separate the one-time Depop proceeds from core Etsy value. A slow or poorly timed buyback program, or a weak Q2 print, can change the thesis without showing up immediately in the chart.
Investment research summary
Etsy connects buyers with independent sellers offering unique, personalized, vintage, and craft-oriented goods. Sellers pay for transaction, payments, listing, advertising, and shipping services because Etsy supplies demand, discovery, checkout, and trust without requiring Etsy to hold inventory.
The moat comes from differentiated seller inventory, buyer intent around meaningful occasions, seller tools, reputation data, search and recommendations, and a community brand built around human-made commerce. It is real but narrower than a general-purpose retail network and exposed to discovery shifts, including AI search.
The thesis fails if Etsy becomes less relevant to buyers, purchase frequency keeps falling, sellers migrate to social or specialist platforms, AI agents steer demand elsewhere, trust and counterfeit problems damage the marketplace, tariffs raise seller costs, or management spends the Depop proceeds without restoring GMS and buyer engagement.
Kruti Patel Goyal became CEO after more than 15 years at Etsy, bringing domain knowledge to the leadership transition. Capital allocation includes investment in the marketplace, debt management, and repurchases, and the completed Depop sale for about $1.4 billion in cash adds both strategic focus and buyback execution risk.
Personalization, recommerce, mobile shopping, creator-led commerce, and agentic AI discovery can support Etsy, including its ChatGPT app and partnerships with OpenAI, Microsoft, and Google. The counterforce is competitive online retail, changing search distribution, tariffs and cross-border friction, and pressure on discretionary consumer spending.
At $81.68, Etsy screens as cash-flow positive but not cheap. The financial rigor check implies about 32.9x trailing EPS, 2.67x sales, and 10.9x trailing free cash flow per share, and the price sits above the $77.38 analyst consensus target, so margin of safety depends on a real buyer and GMS recovery plus disciplined buybacks rather than on the Depop proceeds alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $81.68 at the July 31, 2026 close, after-hours near $81.10 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.75 billion, computed as $81.68 x 94.89 million shares outstanding and cross-checked on StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 94,887,000 as of March 31, 2026, per SEC EDGAR XBRL and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q; StockAnalysis.com lists 94.90 million | SEC EDGAR XBRL and Etsy Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $2.884 billion revenue, up 2.68%, and $162.98 million net income, down 46.26% | Etsy 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 Etsy marketplace GMS | $2,460,195 thousand, up 5.5% year over year, or 3.6% on a currency neutral basis | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and take rate | $631,277 thousand revenue with a 25.7% take rate, and revenue growth of 7.6% for the Etsy marketplace | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 profitability | Net income of $104,662 thousand from continuing operations and adjusted EBITDA of $184,711 thousand at a 29.3% margin | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | Marketplace revenue of $432,773 thousand, up 6.3% for the Etsy marketplace, and Services revenue of $198,504 thousand, up 10.5% | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 customer metrics | Active buyers grew sequentially for the first time in two years, GMS per active buyer reached $122 on a trailing twelve month basis, and the mobile app represented about 47% of total GMS | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | Cash and cash equivalents of $1,214,374 thousand as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL, plus $211,391 thousand in short-term investments and $150,591 thousand in long-term investments | Etsy Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt and net debt | Total debt of $3,076 million including $649 million short-term, $2,335 million long-term, and finance leases, with net cash of minus $1,650 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Etsy Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve month free cash flow | $671,155 thousand, down 2.0% year over year, per the Q1 2026 shareholder letter; StockAnalysis.com cash flow shows TTM free cash flow of $711.35 million | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Buyback and capital returns | Etsy repurchased about $145 million in stock in Q1 2026, reducing the share count by roughly 2.7 million shares, with $827.9 million remaining on the board authorized programs as of March 31, 2026 | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Depop sale completion | Etsy completed the sale of Depop to eBay on July 30, 2026 for approximately $1.4 billion in cash, reflecting the $1.2 billion purchase price plus $200 million of net purchase price adjustments and interest, with proceeds planned to accelerate the share repurchase program | Etsy press release, July 30, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings date | Etsy plans to release second quarter 2026 financial results after market close on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, with a webcast the next morning | Etsy press release, July 17, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 and Q2 2026 outlook | Etsy marketplace GMS growth expected in the low single digits for full year 2026, Q2 2026 GMS of $2.48 billion to $2.53 billion, Q2 adjusted EBITDA margin of 27% to 29%, and full year adjusted EBITDA margin of 28% to 30% | Etsy Q1 2026 shareholder letter | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold rating with an average price target of $77.38 across 30 analysts, low $58, median $80, and high $92 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 22, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 5 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 21 Hold, 0 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell out of 30 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 22, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Truist raised to $90 from $85 with a Buy on July 22, BofA maintained a Neutral with a $90 target on July 22, Raymond James raised to $92 from $75 with an Outperform on July 21, BTIG downgraded to Neutral from Buy on July 16, Wedbush initiated a Neutral with an $80 target on July 16, JPMorgan raised to $85 from $78 with a Neutral, and Jefferies raised to $80 from $62 with a Hold | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 22, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS of $2.34, TTM free cash flow of $711.35 million, and TTM revenue near $2.90 billion used for the financial rigor check, with a trailing PE of 32.94, forward PE of 14.11, PS of 2.67, and P/FCF of 10.90 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 21.67 million shares short, or 22.84% of shares outstanding and 26.23% of float, with 4.57 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $44.00 to $87.26, up about 31.78% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.84 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $84.14, 20-day SMA near $81.70, 50-day SMA near $74.88, 100-day SMA near $66.03, 200-day SMA near $61.90, 14-day RSI near 54, 14-day ADX near 39, and 14-day historical volatility near 36.8% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This ETSY AI stock analysis page is for informational and educational use only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if business, market, regulatory, consumer, tariff, debt, buyback, or transaction conditions change. The next quarterly report is scheduled for August 5, 2026 and may materially change the outlook.
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