The Ensign Group, Inc. research snapshot
ENSG AI stock analysis currently reads The Ensign Group as a fast-growing post-acute care operator built around skilled nursing, rehabilitation, senior living, acquisitions, and the Standard Bearer real estate platform. The latest close in the research set was $178.16 on July 31, 2026, implying a market capitalization near $10.38 billion on 58.282 million shares. Q2 2026 revenue rose 17.3% to $1.44 billion, GAAP diluted EPS rose 16.7% to $1.68, and adjusted EPS rose 20.8% to $1.92, beating analyst estimates. Management then raised 2026 guidance to $7.75 to $7.85 diluted EPS and $5.87 billion to $5.92 billion of revenue. The growth case is supported by same-facility occupancy of 84.1%, improving skilled mix, and 20 new operations added during the quarter. The central caution is that multiple securities firms are investigating potential securities violations tied to regulatory issues first raised by June 2026 external reports, and those claims remain unresolved in the available source set. This page uses scenarios and monitoring rules for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$178.16, July 31, 2026 close
Market cap
$10.38 billion calculated as $178.16 x 58.282 million shares from the Q2 2026 10-Q cover, within 0.81% of a reported $10.30 billion market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Fast-growing post-acute care operator that beat Q2 2026 estimates and raised guidance, while unresolved securities investigations, regulatory, quality, lease, and valuation risks keep certainty below the growth record
Trend status
Above the 50-day moving average but still below the 200-day average; RSI near 60 is positive after a strong recovery from the June low near $141.58, with $182 to $186 as the key overhead test
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ensign provides skilled nursing, rehabilitation, senior living, ancillary healthcare services, and post-acute real estate through independent subsidiaries. Customers and referral partners pay for local care capacity, clinical execution, and reliable transitions from hospitals, and Q2 2026 delivered a 17.3% revenue increase with improved occupancy. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from local administrator teams, referral relationships, operating clusters, training, licenses, occupancy know-how, and owned real estate. It is practical rather than permanent because quality failures, staffing gaps, or regulatory action can weaken it quickly. | Medium |
| Management | CEO and board chair Barry Port has long post-acute operating experience, while CFO and director Suzanne Snapper has managed finance, treasury, and the Standard Bearer structure. Chief Investment Officer Chad Keetch leads the acquisition pipeline that added 20 operations in Q2 2026. The key test is whether growth remains disciplined while quality and compliance controls hold under active legal scrutiny. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from about $2.63 billion in 2021 to $5.06 billion in 2025. Q2 2026 revenue rose 17.3% to $1.44 billion with $1.68 GAAP diluted EPS and $1.92 adjusted EPS, and management raised full-year guidance. TTM revenue reached about $5.49 billion with TTM net income of about $378.70 million and TTM EPS of $6.38. | High |
| Valuation | At $178.16, the stock was about 27.93x TTM EPS, 24.57x TTM free cash flow per share, and 4.22x book value per share using reported inputs. The raised 2026 EPS guidance midpoint of $7.80 implies about 22.8x forward earnings, so the price still requires continued execution. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The latest snapshot placed ENSG above its 50-day average of $166.37 but below its 200-day average of $182.81. RSI near 60.02 was positive, and the price recovered from the June low near $141.58 toward resistance near $182 to $186 before closing the week at $178.16. | Medium |
| Risk level | High risks include securities investigations tied to regulatory issues, Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement, staffing and care quality, facility surveys, legal exposure, long operating lease commitments, acquisition integration, labor costs, and the unresolved allegations published by Hunterbrook and Muddy Waters in June 2026. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for reported financial facts and management guidance, medium for chart levels, and medium-low for multi-year price ranges because securities investigation outcomes and regulatory findings are not yet observable in the public data set. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ENSG is a growth-oriented healthcare operator with strong recent execution evidence, but it is not a high-certainty compounder until the securities investigations, care-quality, and regulatory questions are answered and lease-adjusted cash returns remain durable. | Low to medium |
ENSG AI stock forecast
The ENSG AI stock forecast uses the midpoint of management's raised 2026 diluted EPS guidance, or $7.80, as the starting point. The three-year scenario model used 15% annual EPS growth and a 32x exit multiple for the bullish case, 10% growth and 24x for the base case, and negative 15% growth and 16x for the bearish case. It produced reference values near $380, $249, and $77. These are scenario outputs, not promised prices.
$345 to $410
More likely if occupancy and skilled mix keep improving, acquisitions stabilize on schedule, raised 2026 guidance is met or exceeded, reimbursement supports revenue, the securities investigations resolve without material findings, and the market keeps a premium earnings multiple.
$225 to $275
More likely if Ensign delivers the raised EPS range, revenue growth stays near a mid-teens rate, cash flow funds maintenance capital and measured acquisitions, investigations remain open without near-term resolution, and the market holds a premium but lower multiple.
$65 to $90
More likely if securities investigations, surveys, reimbursement changes, staffing costs, or quality findings reduce facility earnings, acquisition growth slows, lease obligations pressure cash flow, or investors reprice the company near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
ENSG AI technical analysis
ENSG AI technical analysis uses the latest available July 31, 2026 market snapshot and recent daily history. The stock closed at $178.16 after trading from $174.05 to $178.78. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $166.37, a 200-day average near $182.81, RSI near 60.02, beta near 0.69, and average 20-day volume near 495,813 shares. ChartMill showed nearby support near $171.89 and resistance near $182.18 with a positive short-term trend and a 6 out of 10 setup rating. Technical data is time-sensitive and should be refreshed before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $178.16 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis and ChartMill quote snapshots; the July 30 close was $178.83 in StockAnalysis history. |
| Immediate support | $171 to $174 | ChartMill support near $171.89 and the July 31 low of $174.05 define the first floor. A close below it would pause the short-term recovery. |
| Secondary support | $163 to $167 | The July 14 low of $163.07, the 1-month range low, and the 50-day moving average near $166.37 form a deeper support zone. |
| June reaction area | $155 to $160 | The June 30 low of $156.53 and the late-June trading range mark the zone that held before the July recovery. |
| 52-week low | $141.58 | The June 11 low after the short-seller reports. A break below it would signal a structural breakdown, not just a pullback. |
| Near resistance | $182 to $186 | ChartMill resistance near $182.18, the 200-day average near $182.81, and the July 27 to July 28 highs near $184.50 to $186.00 define the main overhead test. |
| 52-week high | $218.00 | The prior peak from before the June selloff. A sustained move above the $182 to $186 zone would be needed before this becomes the next objective. |
| 50-day moving average | $166.37 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average below the current price. Holding above it is short-term context, not a standalone signal. |
| 200-day moving average | $182.81 | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot placed the 200-day average near $182.81. A sustained reclaim is important for a longer-term trend repair. |
| Momentum | RSI about 60.02 | The latest StockAnalysis reading was mildly positive. It does not show an extreme overbought condition. |
| Volume | About 495,813 shares average over 20 days | The StockAnalysis average-volume reference helps test whether a break above $186 or below $163 has meaningful participation. ChartMill showed a higher average near 880,957 shares, a scope and source difference. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.69; 52-week range $141.58 to $218.00 | Beta was below one in the latest statistics, but event risk remains high because the June reports and active investigations can cause large single-session moves. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $163 | A decisive break below the secondary support zone would invalidate the current recovery framework and require a fresh review of legal, regulatory, operating, and valuation assumptions. |
ENSG AI trading strategy
The ENSG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price levels with earnings, occupancy, reimbursement, facility surveys, acquisition integration, lease obligations, securities investigation developments, and the next scheduled earnings update.
Watch for ENSG to hold $171 to $174, reclaim and hold the $182 to $186 zone that contains the 200-day average near $182.81, and then trade above it with volume near or above recent averages. The fundamental confirmation is continued delivery on raised 2026 guidance and no adverse legal or regulatory development.
A close below $171, a failed reclaim of $182 to $186, a guidance cut, or a new securities or regulatory finding should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If ENSG revisits $155 to $167, compare the price with the base and bearish scenarios only after checking securities investigation news, facility survey results, reimbursement commentary, same-facility occupancy, and cash flow. A lower price is not automatically a margin of safety if the earnings base is impaired.
Do not average down through unresolved legal, quality, or compliance news. Use a predefined loss limit and reassess the thesis if the $163 zone fails.
Track total revenue, same-facility and transitioning-facility occupancy, skilled mix, Medicare and Medicaid payor mix, daily rates, facility additions, acquisition cash spend, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, lease coverage, Standard Bearer FFO, and the status of any securities investigation or regulatory review.
Treat legal and facility-level compliance developments as thesis variables. Reported growth alone should not override adverse investigation findings, payment pressure, staffing shortages, or weaker cash conversion.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ensign for skilled nursing, rehabilitation, senior living, and related post-acute care close to local referral networks. Hospitals and payors value available beds, clinical capacity, transitions, and outcomes, while Ensign also earns rent through the Standard Bearer real estate platform.
The moat is a local operating system rather than a national consumer brand. Administrator training, decentralized decision-making, referral ties, market clusters, operating playbooks, licenses, and owned properties can make a facility portfolio hard to reproduce. The moat narrows if quality, staffing, or compliance deteriorates.
The thesis fails if regulators, payors, or investigators determine that facility administration or care practices do not meet required standards, if staffing costs erase acquisition gains, if reimbursement lags inflation, or if long lease obligations and slower acquisitions expose the difference between accounting earnings and distributable cash. Hunterbrook and Muddy Waters made external allegations in June 2026, and securities law firms have opened investigations; the available sources do not establish any of the claims as facts.
Barry Port has served as CEO since 2019 and became board chair in 2025 after earlier operating roles. Suzanne Snapper has led finance and treasury functions since 2007 and helped execute the Standard Bearer structure, and Chad Keetch leads acquisitions as Chief Investment Officer. Capital allocation should be judged by acquisition returns, facility quality, lease discipline, cash conversion, and transparent handling of the current controversy.
The long-term demand case is supported by population aging and post-acute care needs. The Census Bureau projects that by 2030 one in five Americans will be of retirement age, while CMS raised FY2026 SNF PPS payments by 3.2% before value-based purchasing effects. The tradeoff is that reimbursement, labor, surveys, quality reporting, and Medicaid policy remain active constraints.
At $178.16, ENSG was priced at about 27.93x TTM EPS, 24.57x TTM free cash flow per share, and 4.22x book value per share using reported inputs. The raised 2026 guidance midpoint of $7.80 lowers the forward multiple to about 22.8x, but the margin of safety is limited until the securities investigations and regulatory claims are resolved and lease-adjusted cash returns remain clear.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENSG share price | $178.16 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis and ChartMill quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.38 billion calculated as $178.16 x 58.282 million shares; 0.81% variance versus a $10.30 billion reported figure | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.282434 million at July 23, 2026 from the 10-Q cover; StockAnalysis showed 57.79 million, a 0.42% cross-source variance | SEC Q2 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | $1.44 billion total revenue, up 17.3% year over year; $1.68 GAAP diluted EPS and $1.92 adjusted EPS; GAAP net income $99.7 million, up 18.2% | Ensign Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 facility metrics | 84.1% same-facility occupancy and 84.7% transitioning-facility occupancy, up 2.7 and 2.3 points year over year | Ensign Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 management guidance (raised) | $5.87 billion to $5.92 billion revenue and $7.75 to $7.85 diluted EPS, midpoint $7.80, up from $7.48 to $7.62 | Ensign Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 results | $2.83 billion revenue, up 17.9% year over year; $199.4 million net income attributable to Ensign; $3.35 GAAP diluted EPS and $3.77 adjusted EPS | SEC Q2 2026 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.058 billion; SEC 10-K reported $5.057841 billion and StockAnalysis rounded to $5.058 billion, an 18.7% increase | SEC FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | $343.971 million attributable to Ensign and $5.84 diluted EPS; consolidated net income was $344.264 million | SEC FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis income statement | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financial summary | About $5.49 billion revenue, $378.70 million net income, $6.38 diluted EPS, $608.43 million operating cash flow, and about $419.09 million free cash flow at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $262.30 million cash and $58.54 million current investments at June 30, 2026; about $591.6 million of available line-of-credit capacity | SEC Q2 2026 10-Q and Ensign Q2 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt including operating leases | About $2.25 billion, including about $139.7 million of debt principal and $2.11 billion of lease liabilities; net debt on this basis was about $1.93 billion | SEC Q2 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Portfolio and growth | 398 healthcare operations across 17 states; 183 owned real estate assets; 20 new operations added in Q2 2026 and 102 since 2024 | Ensign Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Standard Bearer segment | $44.1 million quarterly revenue, up 40.2%; $24.7 million FFO, up 34.6%; 177 owned properties with $37.8 million of rental revenue from Ensign-affiliated operators | Ensign Q2 2026 results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 27.93x TTM PE, 4.22x PB, 24.57x P/FCF, 1.88x PS, 21.70x forward PE, and 0.15% dividend yield using $6.38 EPS, $42.26 book value per share, $7.25 FCF per share, and $0.26 dividend | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus rating Buy with an average price target of $220.00 on five analysts, ranging from $207 to $230; ChartMill showed 11 analysts with an average of $224.81 | StockAnalysis forecast and ChartMill | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.17 million shares short, 3.75% of shares outstanding and 3.89% of float, with a days-to-cover ratio of 1.95 | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $166.37, 200-day average $182.81, RSI 60.02, beta 0.69, and 20-day average volume 495,813 shares; ChartMill support $171.89 and resistance $182.18 | StockAnalysis statistics and ChartMill | August 3, 2026 |
| Industry payment and demographic context | CMS finalized a 3.2% FY2026 SNF PPS payment increase; Census projects one in five Americans will be of retirement age by 2030 | CMS and U.S. Census Bureau | August 3, 2026 |
| June 2026 external allegations | Hunterbrook and Muddy Waters published allegations concerning staffing, care quality, administrator licensing, and the sustainability of Ensign's acquisition model; the claims remain unresolved in this research set | Muddy Waters Research report | August 3, 2026 |
| July 2026 securities investigations | Multiple securities law firms, including Kaplan Fox, BFA Law, Lowey Dannenberg, and Rosen Law, announced investigations into potential securities violations tied to regulatory issues; these are allegations and none are established as facts here | Kaplan Fox notification | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions. They may be wrong, and you should verify current filings, market prices, facility-level disclosures, legal and regulatory developments, and your own risk tolerance before making decisions.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
