The Ensign Group, Inc. research snapshot
ENSG AI stock analysis currently reads The Ensign Group as a fast-growing post-acute care operator built around skilled nursing, rehabilitation, local operating teams, acquisitions, and an affiliated real estate platform. The latest regular-market quote in the research set was $168.59 on July 10, 2026, implying a market capitalization near $9.85 billion on 58.423 million shares. FY2025 revenue reached $5.06 billion and net income attributable to Ensign was $343.97 million, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 18.4% to $1.39 billion and diluted GAAP EPS rose to $1.67. Management raised 2026 guidance to $7.48 to $7.62 diluted EPS and $5.81 billion to $5.86 billion of revenue. The growth case is credible if occupancy, skilled mix, acquisitions, and reimbursement remain favorable. The central caution is that June 2026 external reports alleged regulatory and care-quality problems, and those claims have not been independently resolved in the available source set. This page uses scenarios and monitoring rules for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$168.59, July 10, 2026 close
Market cap
$9.85 billion using 58.423 million shares from the Q1 2026 filing, within 0.51% of a reported $9.90 billion market cap
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-growth post-acute care operator with strong occupancy and acquisition execution, but elevated regulatory, quality, lease, and valuation uncertainty
Trend status
Near the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day average after June short-seller reports; RSI is neutral and price is testing the mid-$160s support area
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Ensign provides skilled nursing, rehabilitation, senior living, ancillary healthcare services, and post-acute real estate through independent subsidiaries. Customers and referral partners pay for local care capacity, clinical execution, and reliable transitions from hospitals. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from local administrator teams, referral relationships, operating clusters, training, licenses, occupancy know-how, and owned real estate. It is practical rather than permanent because quality failures, staffing gaps, or regulatory action can weaken it quickly. | Medium |
| Management | CEO and board chair Barry Port has long post-acute operating experience, while CFO and director Suzanne Snapper has managed finance, treasury, spin-offs, and the Standard Bearer structure. The key test is whether acquisition growth remains disciplined while quality and compliance controls hold. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from about $2.63 billion in 2021 to $5.06 billion in 2025. FY2025 net income attributable to Ensign was $343.97 million, operating cash flow was $564.27 million, and Q1 2026 revenue grew 18.4% with 84.0% skilled-services occupancy. | High |
| Valuation | At $168.59, the stock was about 27.46x TTM EPS, 24.05x TTM free cash flow per share, and 4.16x Q1 book value per share using the audited calculation inputs. The 2026 EPS guidance midpoint implies about 22.3x forward earnings, so the price still requires execution. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The latest snapshot placed ENSG near its 50-day average of $168.16 but below its 200-day average of $182.84. RSI near 55 was neutral, while the June selloff and recovery leave $161 to $166 as the first support area and $180 to $183 as a key trend test. | Medium |
| Risk level | High risks include Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement, staffing and care quality, facility surveys, legal and regulatory exposure, long operating lease commitments, acquisition integration, local housing conditions, labor costs, and the unresolved allegations published by Hunterbrook and Muddy Waters in June 2026. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for historical financial facts and management guidance, medium for chart levels, and medium-low for multi-year price ranges because regulatory and quality outcomes are not yet observable in the public data set. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ENSG is a growth-oriented healthcare operator with meaningful execution evidence, but it is not a high-certainty compounder until the care-quality and regulatory questions are answered and lease-adjusted cash returns remain durable. | Low to medium |
ENSG AI stock forecast
The ENSG AI stock forecast uses the midpoint of management's 2026 diluted EPS guidance, or $7.55, as the starting point. The audited three-year model used 15% annual EPS growth and a 32x exit multiple for the bullish case, 10% growth and 24x for the base case, and negative 15% growth and 16x for the bearish case. It produced reference values near $367, $241, and $74. These are scenario outputs, not promised prices.
$330 to $390
More likely if occupancy and skilled mix keep improving, acquisitions stabilize on schedule, 2026 guidance is met or raised, the 3.2% FY2026 SNF payment update supports revenue, and independent reviews do not substantiate the external regulatory allegations.
$220 to $260
More likely if Ensign delivers the current EPS range, revenue growth slows toward a high single-digit or low double-digit rate, cash flow funds maintenance capital and measured acquisitions, and the market keeps a premium but lower multiple around the mid-20s.
$65 to $90
More likely if surveys, investigations, reimbursement changes, staffing costs, or quality findings reduce facility earnings, acquisition growth slows, lease obligations pressure cash flow, or investors reprice the company near a mid-teens earnings multiple.
ENSG AI technical analysis
ENSG AI technical analysis uses the latest available July 10, 2026 market snapshot and recent daily history. The stock closed at $168.59 after trading from $165.70 to $169.99. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $168.16, a 200-day average near $182.84, RSI near 55.44, beta near 0.69, and average 20-day volume near 1.32 million shares. ChartMill showed nearby support near $161.66 and $155.63 and resistance near $180.39 to $181.97. Technical data is time-sensitive and should be refreshed before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $168.59 | July 10, 2026 close from Investing.com and StockTitan quote snapshots; the July 9 close was $168.92 in StockAnalysis history. |
| Immediate support | $161 to $166 | This band combines the June 30 to July 10 trading range and ChartMill support near $161.66. A close below it would weaken the short-term recovery. |
| Secondary support | $147 to $156 | The June 10 to June 11 reaction area and ChartMill support near $155.63 define a deeper risk zone after the short-seller reports. |
| Near resistance | $174 to $181 | Stoxline listed first resistance near $173.78 and ChartMill showed a resistance zone near $180.39 to $181.97. |
| 200-day resistance | $182.84 | The latest StockAnalysis snapshot placed the 200-day moving average near $182.84, making a sustained reclaim important for a longer-term trend repair. |
| 50-day moving average | $168.16 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day moving average near the latest close. Price acceptance above or below this level is short-term context, not a standalone signal. |
| Momentum | RSI about 55.44 | The latest StockAnalysis reading was neutral. It does not show an extreme overbought or oversold condition. |
| Volume | About 1.32 million shares average over 20 days | The average volume reference helps test whether a break above $181 or below $161 has meaningful participation. |
| Volatility | Beta about 0.69; 52-week range $134.80 to $218.00 | Beta was below one in the latest statistics, but event risk remains high because the June reports caused large single-session moves. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $147 | A decisive break below the June reaction area would invalidate the current recovery framework and require a fresh review of regulatory, operating, and valuation assumptions. |
ENSG AI trading strategy
The ENSG AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price levels with earnings, occupancy, reimbursement, facility surveys, acquisition integration, lease obligations, and the next scheduled earnings update.
Watch for ENSG to hold $161 to $166, reclaim $174 to $181, and then establish itself above the $182.84 200-day average with volume near or above the 1.32 million-share average. The fundamental confirmation is unchanged 2026 guidance and no adverse regulatory development.
A close below $161, a failed reclaim of $181, a guidance cut, or a new regulatory finding should reduce confidence in the trend setup.
If ENSG revisits $147 to $156, compare the price with the base and bearish scenarios only after checking facility survey results, reimbursement commentary, same-facility occupancy, and cash flow. A lower price is not automatically a margin of safety if the earnings base is impaired.
Do not average down through unresolved quality or compliance news. Use a predefined loss limit and reassess the thesis if the $147 area fails.
Track total revenue, same-facility occupancy, transitioning-facility occupancy, skilled mix, Medicare and Medicaid payor mix, daily rates, facility additions, acquisition cash spend, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, lease coverage, and the status of any regulatory or legal review.
Treat facility-level compliance and care quality as thesis variables. Reported growth alone should not override adverse survey findings, payment pressure, staffing shortages, or weaker cash conversion.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Ensign for skilled nursing, rehabilitation, senior living, and related post-acute care close to local referral networks. Hospitals and payors value available beds, clinical capacity, transitions, and outcomes, while Ensign also earns rent through the Standard Bearer real estate platform.
The moat is a local operating system rather than a national consumer brand. Administrator training, decentralized decision-making, referral ties, market clusters, operating playbooks, licenses, and owned properties can make a facility portfolio hard to reproduce. The moat narrows if quality, staffing, or compliance deteriorates.
The thesis fails if regulators or payors determine that facility administration or care practices do not meet required standards, if staffing costs erase acquisition gains, if reimbursement lags inflation, or if long lease obligations and slower acquisitions expose the difference between accounting earnings and distributable cash. Hunterbrook and Muddy Waters made external allegations in June 2026; the available sources do not establish them as facts.
Barry Port has served as CEO since 2019 and became board chair in 2025 after earlier operating roles. Suzanne Snapper has led finance and treasury functions since 2007 and helped execute the CareTrust, Pennant, and Standard Bearer structures. The 2026 proxy reported 4.0% beneficial ownership for all executive officers and directors as a group, with Port and Snapper each below 1%, and described five-year equity vesting plus clinical and governance goals. Capital allocation should be judged by acquisition returns, facility quality, lease discipline, cash conversion, and transparent handling of the current controversy.
The long-term demand case is supported by population aging and post-acute care needs. The Census Bureau projects that by 2030 one in five Americans will be of retirement age, while CMS raised FY2026 SNF PPS payments by 3.2% before value-based purchasing effects. The tradeoff is that reimbursement, labor, surveys, quality reporting, and Medicaid policy remain active constraints.
At $168.59, ENSG was priced at about 27.46x TTM EPS, 24.05x TTM free cash flow per share, and 4.16x book value per share using the audited calculation inputs. The 2026 guidance midpoint lowers the forward multiple to about 22.3x, but the margin of safety is limited until the regulatory claims are resolved and lease-adjusted cash returns remain clear.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENSG share price | $168.59 at the July 10, 2026 close | Investing.com and StockTitan quote snapshots | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.85 billion calculated as $168.59 x 58.423 million shares; 0.51% variance versus a $9.90 billion reported figure | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 58.423 million at March 31, 2026; StockAnalysis showed 57.96 million, a 0.40% cross-source variance | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $5.058 billion; SEC 10-K reported $5.057841 billion and StockAnalysis rounded to $5.058 billion | SEC FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and diluted EPS | $343.971 million attributable to Ensign and $5.84 diluted EPS; consolidated net income was $344.264 million | SEC FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $564.27 million operating cash flow, $193.56 million capital expenditures, and about $370.71 million free cash flow | SEC FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $1.389 billion revenue, up 18.4% year over year; $1.67 GAAP diluted EPS and $1.85 adjusted EPS | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q and Ensign Q1 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 facility metrics | 84.0% skilled-services occupancy, 32.0% skilled mix by nursing days, and 50.7% skilled mix by nursing revenue | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 management guidance | $5.81 billion to $5.86 billion revenue and $7.48 to $7.62 diluted EPS, midpoint $7.55 | Ensign Q1 2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $595.18 million at March 31, 2026, cross-checked against $539.498 million cash and $55.677 million current investments | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Debt including operating leases | About $2.24 billion, including $143.31 million of debt principal and $2.104 billion of lease liabilities; net debt on this basis was about $1.65 billion | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 27.46x TTM PE, 4.16x PB, 24.05x P/FCF, and 0.15% dividend yield using $6.14 EPS, $40.56 book value per share, $7.01 FCF per share, and $0.26 dividend | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Management ownership and incentives | The 2026 proxy reported 4.0% beneficial ownership for all executive officers and directors as a group; Barry Port and Suzanne Snapper each held less than 1%, with options included under SEC beneficial-ownership rules. StockAnalysis showed 3.61% current insider ownership, a scope and timing difference | SEC 2026 proxy statement and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $168.16, 200-day average $182.84, RSI 55.44, beta 0.69, and 20-day average volume 1.32 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Industry payment and demographic context | CMS finalized a 3.2% FY2026 SNF PPS payment increase; Census projects one in five Americans will be of retirement age by 2030 | CMS and U.S. Census Bureau | July 12, 2026 |
| June 2026 external allegations | Hunterbrook and Muddy Waters published allegations concerning staffing, care quality, administrator licensing, and the sustainability of Ensign's acquisition model; the claims remain unresolved in this research set | Muddy Waters Research report | July 12, 2026 |
| June 8, 2026 short-seller report | Hunterbrook reported allegations about staffing, care quality, quality metrics, and related-party payments; these are allegations from a disclosed short seller and are not independently established here | Hunterbrook Media investigation | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and stated assumptions. They may be wrong, and you should verify current filings, market prices, facility-level disclosures, regulatory developments, and your own risk tolerance before making decisions.
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