Crescent Energy Company research snapshot
CRGY AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Crescent Energy as a quality U.S. oil and gas exploration and production company that just delivered its strongest quarter on record. The stock closed at $11.43 on August 3, 2026, down 0.35% from the $11.47 close on July 31, then moved to $11.93 in after-hours trading, up 4.37%, after Crescent reported Q2 2026 results with record operating cash flow of $707 million, record levered free cash flow of $418 million, and record adjusted EBITDAX of $798 million, on production of 335 MBoe/d including 140 MBo/d of oil. Market capitalization stood near $3.77 billion, matching the $11.43 price times 330.35 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 GAAP net income of $493.7 million included large derivative gains, while adjusted net income was $263 million and diluted EPS came in at $1.30. Management raised 2026 production guidance to 327 to 335 MBoe/d, cut adjusted operating expense guidance to $11.00 to $12.00 per Boe, raised the Permian synergy target to approximately $250 million to $300 million, and redeemed the remaining $259 million of 7.75% senior notes due 2029. The 15-analyst consensus is Buy with an average price target of $15.93, or roughly 39% above the close. This page uses scenario ranges and source checks, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$11.43 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 0.04 or 0.35% from the $11.47 July 31 close, after opening at $11.00 and trading in a session range of $11.00 to $11.45, with an after-hours quote of $11.93, up 0.50 or 4.37%, after the Q2 2026 earnings release
Market cap
$3.77 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching the $11.43 price times 330.35 million shares outstanding, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing approximately 330,403,696 shares of Class A common stock outstanding as of July 31, 2026
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Quality E&P operator with record free cash flow and deleveraging
Trend status
Bullish above the 50-day moving average near $10.90 and the 200-day moving average near $10.55, with a positive after-hours reaction to Q2 2026 results
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Crescent operates long-life oil and gas assets in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta basins, with minerals and royalty interests, and just delivered record operating cash flow of $707 million, record levered free cash flow of $418 million, and record adjusted EBITDAX of $798 million in Q2 2026. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Moat is moderate and comes from low-decline production, basin-scale acreage in three basins, an established acquire-and-integrate capability proven with the SilverBow and Vital Energy deals, and minerals and royalty interests across premium U.S. basins. | Medium |
| Management | Management raised 2026 production guidance to 327 to 335 MBoe/d, cut adjusted opex guidance by 4%, lifted the Permian synergy target to roughly $250 million to $300 million with about $190 million captured, redeemed $259 million of 2029 senior notes at par in July, and kept the $0.12 quarterly dividend while maintaining a ~$336 million buyback authorization. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose to $1,394.95 million from $897.98 million a year earlier, GAAP net income was $493.7 million including derivative gains, adjusted net income was $263 million, and six-month operating cash flow reached $1,116 million, a clear improvement over the loss-making 2024 period. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $11.43, CRGY trades at a forward P/E near 4.78, a price-to-book near 0.81, a price-to-sales near 0.99, and an EV/EBITDA near 4.12, below the market on most measures, but the leverage of roughly $5.2 billion of debt and a net debt of about $4.9 billion reduces the appeal of the cheap multiple. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CRGY closed at $11.43 on August 3, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $10.90 and the 200-day near $10.55, with a 14-day RSI near 59.87, and moved to $11.93 after hours on the Q2 report, holding a range between the $7.68 low and the $14.29 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are commodity price volatility, roughly $5.2 billion of total debt and a 2.4x debt-to-EBITDA ratio, an Altman Z-score of 0.42, short interest of 12.64% of shares, integration and dilution from the Vital Energy merger, and the exposure of realized gas prices near $0.52 per Mcf before derivatives. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, and the August 3, 2026 earnings release. Lower for forward return estimates because commodity prices and hedging levels can change the outcome quickly. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework, scenario ranges, and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
CRGY AI stock forecast
The CRGY AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $11.43 August 3, 2026 close, the 2026 adjusted EPS consensus near $2.28, and the S&P Global revenue forecast of about $4.78 billion for fiscal 2026. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $8, a base area near $13, and a bullish area near $18 over three years, using adjusted EPS growth of -5%, 5%, and 10% and exit multiples of 4x, 5x, and 6x, consistent with the analyst target range of $11 to $19. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$16 to $19
More likely if WTI stays above $75, Permian synergies reach the raised $250 million to $300 million target, production guidance keeps rising, debt falls toward $4 billion or below, and the market re-rates CRGY closer to mid-cycle E&P multiples of 5x to 6x EBITDA.
$12 to $15
More likely if Crescent compounds free cash flow near current levels, keeps the dividend at $0.48 per year, maintains leverage discipline after the 2029 note redemption, and trades in line with small-cap E&P peer multiples near 4x to 5x normalized EBITDA, with the consensus target of $15.93 as the anchor.
$7 to $9
More likely if WTI falls below $60, realized gas prices stay near current lows, production growth stalls after the integration work, debt service consumes cash flow, short interest keeps rising, or impairments recur and pressure book value and the dividend.
CRGY AI technical analysis
CRGY AI technical analysis is bullish-to-neutral as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $11.43 on August 3, 2026, down 0.35% from the $11.47 July 31 close, above its 50-day moving average near $10.90 and its 200-day moving average near $10.55, with a 14-day RSI near 59.87 on StockAnalysis.com statistics. After-hours trading moved the price to $11.93, up 4.37%, after the Q2 2026 earnings release, while the 52-week range of $7.68 to $14.29 still frames the longer-term trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.43 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT close, down 0.04 or 0.35% from the $11.47 July 31 close after opening at $11.00 and trading between $11.00 and $11.45. |
| After-hours level | $11.93 | StockAnalysis.com after-hours quote of $11.93 at 7:34 PM EDT on August 3, 2026, up 0.50 or 4.37%, following the Q2 2026 earnings release, implying the next session could open above the close. |
| Near support | $10.90 to $11.00 | The 50-day moving average near $10.90 reported by StockAnalysis.com on August 3, 2026 and the round $11.00 level form the first support zone below the close. |
| Deeper support | $10.55 area | The 200-day moving average near $10.55 reported by StockAnalysis.com acts as the medium-term trend support. A close below it would shift the trend to neutral. |
| Near resistance | $12.00 to $12.50 | The after-hours high near $11.93 and the $12.00 round number form the first overhead zone, ahead of the $12.50 area. |
| Long-term resistance | $14.29 | The 52-week high of $14.29 set earlier in 2026 remains the upper reference point for a full recovery scenario. |
| Momentum | RSI near 59.87 | The 14-day RSI was near 59.87 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, mildly bullish and not yet overbought, with room before the 70 level. |
| Volume | About 5.69 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 5.69 million shares on August 3, 2026, supporting liquidity for position entries and exits. |
| Volatility | 52-week gain near 27.6% | CRGY is up about 27.6% over the trailing 52 weeks with a beta near 0.89, and the after-hours move to $11.93 shows single-day swings can be sharp around earnings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.55 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near $10.55 would weaken the bullish trend; a close below the July consolidation near $10.00 would open a path back toward the $9 area. |
CRGY AI trading strategy
The CRGY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for monitoring an E&P stock with a 4.2% dividend yield, commodity exposure, and a deleveraging story. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh WTI and Henry Hub prices, quarterly results, debt metrics, hedging disclosures, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for CRGY to hold above the 50-day moving average near $10.90 and reclaim the $12.00 to $12.50 resistance zone on volume after the $11.93 after-hours print. A sustained move toward $13 to $15 would require continued free cash flow, steady production, and constructive guidance updates.
A close below the 200-day moving average near $10.55 or a dividend cut should invalidate the trend setup. Reduce position size if WTI breaks below $60 or leverage stops falling.
If CRGY pulls back toward the $10.55 to $11.00 support cluster without a negative commodity or operational catalyst, compare the 4.2% dividend yield, the deleveraging path, and Permian synergy progress before assuming a floor is durable.
Do not average down without a defined maximum loss rule because E&P stocks can gap 10% or more on OPEC announcements, production guidance changes, or debt-related headlines.
Track quarterly production volumes, realized oil and gas prices, adjusted EBITDAX, operating cash flow, levered free cash flow, debt levels and the 2.4x debt-to-EBITDA ratio, dividend coverage, Permian synergy capture, and 2026 production guidance of 327 to 335 MBoe/d.
Reduce confidence if free cash flow consistently falls short of the dividend and debt service, short interest keeps rising above 12.6% of shares, or realized commodity prices deteriorate faster than hedges protect cash flow.
Investment research summary
Crescent Energy acquires and operates oil and gas producing assets in the Eagle Ford, Permian, and Uinta basins, plus minerals and royalty interests across premium U.S. basins. Customers pay because the company supplies crude oil, natural gas, and NGLs into liquid commodity markets with long-life, low-decline production and a proven acquire-and-integrate model.
The moat is based on basin-scale acreage, low-decline production, acquisition and integration expertise proven with the SilverBow and Vital Energy deals, and relationships with mineral owners and operators. It supports a repeatable returns-driven growth strategy, but commodity price cycles and asset competition limit pricing power.
The thesis fails if commodity prices decline and stay low, the Vital Energy integration or Permian synergies under-deliver, debt near $5.2 billion consumes cash flow, impairments recur and erode book value, or the 4.2% dividend becomes unsustainable. The Altman Z-score of 0.42 flags the leverage side of the risk.
Management should be judged by the record Q2 2026 results, the production guidance raise to 327 to 335 MBoe/d, the Permian synergy target increase to roughly $250 million to $300 million, the $259 million 2029 note redemption, the maintained $0.12 quarterly dividend, and whether the ~$336 million buyback authorization is used at disciplined prices.
The U.S. energy sector is in a consolidation and capital discipline cycle, with realizations helped in Q2 2026 by elevated oil prices near $96 per barrel before derivatives. The main swing factors are OPEC supply policy, Middle East tensions, natural gas fundamentals that kept realized gas near $0.52 per Mcf, and the energy transition narrative.
At $11.43 with a forward P/E near 4.78, price-to-book near 0.81, and a 4.2% dividend yield, the stock prices in a cautious commodity outlook. Margin of safety improves if the company keeps delivering free cash flow, cuts debt, and the yield supports the stock above the $10.55 to $11.00 support zone, but the leverage means the safety margin is thinner than the cheap multiple alone suggests.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRGY price | $11.43 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 0.04 or 0.35% from the $11.47 July 31 close, after opening at $11.00 and trading in a session range of $11.00 to $11.45, with an after-hours quote of $11.93 up 0.50 or 4.37% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | Near $3.77 billion at the August 3, 2026 close, verified as the $11.43 price times 330.35 million shares, with the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cover listing approximately 330,403,696 Class A shares outstanding as of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote and Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production | 335 MBoe/d including 140 MBo/d of oil, about 42% oil and 64% liquids, with 43 gross operated wells drilled and 32 brought online during the quarter | Crescent Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $1,394.95 million in total revenues, up from $897.98 million in Q2 2025, including $1,226.83 million of oil revenue and $129.37 million of NGL revenue | Crescent Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | GAAP net income of $493.7 million, net income attributable to Crescent of $492.8 million, adjusted net income of $263 million, and diluted EPS of $1.30, with GAAP results including a $181.9 million gain on derivatives | Crescent Q2 2026 earnings release and Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash flow | Record operating cash flow of $707 million, record levered free cash flow of $418 million, record adjusted EBITDAX of $798 million, and capital expenditures excluding acquisitions of $284 million | Crescent Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Six-month 2026 cash flow | Net cash provided by operating activities of $1,115.98 million for the first six months of 2026, with $651.33 million of development capital spending and $354.42 million of acquisitions | Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q cash flow statement | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $4.31 billion over the trailing twelve months ended June 30, 2026, cross-checked between StockAnalysis.com financials at $4,309 million and the sum of quarterly revenue from the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com financials and Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 330.25 million shares per StockAnalysis.com, with 330,345,624 shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 and approximately 330,403,696 as of July 31, 2026 per the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and cash equivalents of $264.9 million, long-term debt of $5,166.02 million, and total debt of about $5.17 billion as of June 30, 2026, with a net debt near $4.9 billion | Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet totals | Total assets of $12,008.4 million, total liabilities of $6,848.8 million, and total equity of $5,159.6 million as of June 30, 2026 | Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Vital Energy merger | Closed in December 2025, with Crescent issuing 73.3 million shares of Class A common stock and paying $3.7 million in cash, adding Permian assets, and the share count rising 78.45% year over year as a result of the merger and related transactions | Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q acquisition note | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Total production of 327 to 335 MBoe/d raised from 320 to 335, oil production of 40% to 42%, adjusted opex of $11.00 to $12.00 per Boe lowered from $11.50 to $12.50, production taxes of 5.0% to 6.0%, and development capital of $1,325 to $1,425 million unchanged | Crescent Q2 2026 earnings release guidance update | August 4, 2026 |
| Permian synergy target | Raised to approximately $250 million to $300 million, roughly three times the original target, with about $190 million captured to date | Crescent Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Liquidity and debt maturity | Approximately $2.2 billion of liquidity as of June 30, 2026, with about $2.0 billion expected after the July 2026 redemption of the remaining $259 million of 7.75% senior notes due 2029 at par, eliminating the nearest maturity | Crescent Q2 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and buyback | Quarterly dividend of $0.12 per share, or $0.48 per share annualized, approved August 3, 2026 and payable August 31, 2026, representing a 4.20% yield at the $11.43 close, with approximately $336 million of share repurchase authorization remaining | Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com dividend data | August 4, 2026 |
| Hedging position | Economically hedged production of 66% of oil and 52% of natural gas in Q2 2026, with realized oil prices of $96.61 per barrel before derivatives and $73.33 after derivatives | Crescent Q2 2026 Form 10-Q derivative disclosure | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Forward P/E near 4.78, price-to-sales near 0.99, price-to-book near 0.81, price-to-free-cash-flow near 10.09, and EV/EBITDA near 4.12 at the $11.43 close | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating across 15 analysts with an average price target of $15.93, low of $11, median of $16, and high of $19, implying about 39% upside from the $11.43 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, August 2026 | 10 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, and 3 Hold out of 15 analysts, with recent actions including Evercore ISI Buy at $18 on July 27, Wells Fargo Buy at $18 on July 24, BMO Hold at $13 on July 23, Siebert Williams Shank Buy at $16 on July 21, and UBS initiation at Buy with a $13 target in July | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | Fiscal 2026 revenue estimate of about $4.78 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.28, and fiscal 2027 revenue estimate of about $4.60 billion with adjusted EPS of $2.26, with 2026 adjusted EPS estimates ranging from $1.74 to $2.81 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 41.74 million shares short, or 12.64% of shares outstanding and 14.13% of float, up from 37.11 million the prior month, with 6.47 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $7.68 to $14.29, up 27.57% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a beta near 0.89 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $10.90 and 200-day moving average near $10.55 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 59.87, and 20-day average volume near 5.69 million shares as of August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Credit and efficiency scores | Altman Z-score of 0.42 and Piotroski F-score of 4 on StockAnalysis.com, with debt-to-EBITDA near 2.40, interest coverage near 2.69, and a current ratio near 0.57 as of August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
This CRGY AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, commodity price moves, debt changes, hedging updates, or market conditions.
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