Celcuity, Inc. research snapshot
CELC AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Celcuity as a newly commercial-stage oncology company whose first product, REVTORPYK (gedatolisib), was approved by the FDA on July 14, 2026 for HR+/HER2-, PIK3CA wild-type locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer. The stock closed at $86.38 on July 31, 2026, with a market capitalization near $4.21 billion, down from a May 4, 2026 high of $151.02 after a sharp post-approval sell-off. The approval is a genuine milestone and the VIKTORIA-1 wild-type data are strong, but the stock fell about 43% from its high because the commercial launch is set for late Q3 2026, the label carries tolerability warnings including stomatitis, rash, and hyperglycemia, multiple securities litigation firms opened investigations, and short interest is near 23% of shares outstanding. Celcuity has no product revenue yet, posted a $52.8 million net loss in Q1 2026, and carried about $323 million in debt at March 31, 2026 before a $500 million convertible note offering closed in June 2026. This page is informational only and not investment advice.
Current price
$86.38
Market cap
$4.21 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
FDA-approved product with unproven commercial execution and elevated near-term risk
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a sharp post-approval sell-off from the May 2026 high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Celcuity has crossed from clinical-stage to commercial-stage with the July 14, 2026 FDA approval of REVTORPYK, its first product. Business quality is still unproven because the company has no product revenue and no commercial track record yet. The approval proves clinical and regulatory execution, but a durable business requires successful launch, reimbursement, and repeatable sales. | Medium |
| Moat | REVTORPYK is the first and only FDA-approved therapy that inhibits all class I PI3K isoforms plus mTORC1 and mTORC2, with strong wild-type VIKTORIA-1 data (PFS hazard ratio of 0.24 for the triplet). Patents, regulatory exclusivity, and manufacturing know-how could create a moat, but tolerability that requires dose management and competition from alpelisib and CDK4/6-based regimens limit pricing power and make the moat unproven until commercial scale. | Medium |
| Management | CEO and co-founder Brian Sullivan and the management team secured the first FDA approval in company history and raised $500 million in 0.250% convertible senior notes due 2032, with proceeds planned to repay the Oxford Finance loan and fund working capital and launch costs. The next capital-allocation test is launch execution, reimbursement negotiation, tolerability management, and advancing the PIK3CA-mutated sNDA and VIKTORIA-2. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Celcuity has zero revenue and a widening loss trend: -$63.78 million in FY2023, -$111.78 million in FY2024, -$177.04 million in FY2025, and a -$52.84 million net loss with -$55.07 million of operating cash flow in Q1 2026 alone. The trend will keep deteriorating until REVTORPYK revenue begins after the late Q3 2026 launch. | High |
| Valuation | At $86.38, CELC has a $4.21 billion market cap with zero revenue and negative earnings, so P/E and P/S are not meaningful. Price-to-book is near 78x and forward price-to-sales is near 34.6x on 2026 consensus revenue of $38.9 million. The market is pricing future approval, label expansion, and commercial cash flows rather than current results. Net cash was about $63.6 million at March 31, 2026 before the June 2026 $500 million convertible offering. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CELC closed at $86.38 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average near $95.00, 50-day near $100.54, 100-day near $110.47, and 200-day near $103.72, after falling from a $151.02 high on May 4, 2026. Barchart reported a Strong Sell technical opinion with an 88% sell rating, 14-day RSI near 41.30, and 14-day ADX near 23.83 with negative directional pressure. | High |
| Risk level | Risk is very high. CELC faces launch timing risk, tolerability concerns from the label, reimbursement and pricing uncertainty, competition from alpelisib and CDK4/6 combinations, high cash burn, a $500 million convertible note, short interest near 23% of shares and 37% of float, securities litigation investigations, and clinical-stage pipeline risk for earlier programs. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financial, clinical, and technical data are well documented and cross-verified, but AI cannot know launch uptake, pricing, reimbursement outcomes, FDA decisions on the mutant sNDA, or the outcome of VIKTORIA-2. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low because the entire valuation depends on commercial adoption of a drug that was approved weeks ago and has not yet launched. The wide analyst price target range of $148 to $178 against a $86.38 price, with a recent low of $78.60, illustrates the uncertainty. | Low |
CELC AI stock forecast
The CELC AI stock forecast uses scenarios instead of a promised price. With the approval achieved, the forecast shifts from binary approval risk to commercial execution risk: launch timing, pricing, reimbursement, tolerability, mutant-indication expansion, and first-line VIKTORIA-2 data. Analyst targets span $148 to $178 with an average of $163.54, about 89% above the July 31 close, but the stock is also only about $8 above its recent low of $78.60.
$160 to $185
More likely if the late Q3 2026 launch ramps faster than expected, tolerability is manageable in real-world use with dose management, reimbursement is broad, the PIK3CA-mutated sNDA is approved and expands the label, and VIKTORIA-2 first-line data look strong.
$125 to $150
More likely if launch uptake is steady but gradual, tolerability is contained with dose management, reimbursement is moderate, the mutant sNDA review proceeds on schedule, and short interest stays elevated but stabilizes.
$60 to $90
More likely if the launch is delayed beyond late Q3, tolerability or reimbursement limits adoption, securities litigation escalates, the mutant sNDA faces delays, or the company needs dilutive financing on top of the convertible notes.
CELC AI technical analysis
CELC AI technical analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff uses the July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis.com and Barchart technical data. The static page does not fetch live market data. The stock closed at $86.38, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with Barchart reporting a Strong Sell technical opinion at 88% sell, 14-day RSI near 41.30, and negative directional pressure from ADX near 23.83 with -DI above +DI.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $86.38 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close, $87.49 after hours; market-cap math uses 48.77 million shares outstanding. |
| Near resistance | $88 to $91 | Barchart turning points place first resistance near $88.10, second near $89.82, and third near $91.14, a cluster formed by the post-approval breakdown. |
| 20-day moving average | $95.00 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $95.00 and the Fibonacci 50% level near $94.51, creating a resistance cluster that must be reclaimed to turn short-term momentum positive. |
| 50-day and 200-day moving averages | $100.54 / $103.72 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day near $100.54 and the 200-day near $103.72, now overhead resistance after the July breakdown. |
| 100-day moving average | $110.47 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $110.47, above the 200-day and acting as the next resistance zone if the stock recovers. |
| Near support | $83 to $85 | Barchart turning points place first support near $85.06 and second near $83.74, the level that has held the recent trading range. |
| Key support | $78 to $82 | The July 28, 2026 low of $78.60 with the Fibonacci 38.2% level near $81.17 form the key support zone. A close below this area would open the next leg down. |
| 52-week high resistance | $151.02 | The 52-week high reached on May 4, 2026. A full recovery to this level would require successful launch data and label expansion. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41 | Barchart reported 14-day RSI near 41.30 and 9-day RSI near 41.47, below the neutral 50 line, indicating momentum is still bearish but not deeply oversold. |
| Volume | About 1.8 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 1.82 million shares and Barchart near 1.83 million. Volume spiked to 8.75 million shares on July 15 during the post-approval sell-off. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.16, event-driven gaps | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 95% and implied volatility near 74.5%. The low beta understates the binary-event gap risk around launches and regulatory milestones. |
| Short interest | 22.87% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com reported 11.15 million shares short, 22.87% of shares outstanding and 37.28% of float, with 6.85 days to cover. High short interest adds squeeze risk but also signals bearish conviction. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $78.60 | A sustained close below the July 28, 2026 low of $78.60 would weaken the technical picture and should trigger a review of launch and funding assumptions. |
CELC AI trading strategy
The CELC AI trading strategy is a research and risk-control framework, not a personalized recommendation. It combines live chart confirmation with launch milestones, regulatory updates, tolerability data, cash and debt changes, and financing announcements.
CELC is driven by commercial and regulatory events. Key catalysts are the Q2 2026 earnings report due mid-August 2026, the late Q3 2026 commercial launch, the PIK3CA-mutated sNDA planned for Q3 2026, initial REVTORPYK prescription and revenue data, VIKTORIA-2 first-line trial data, and any financing or litigation news.
Event risk means position sizing must account for the possibility of large gap moves in either direction. The July 15, 2026 session fell 17.6% and the June 2, 2026 session fell 25.7%, so tight stops are unreliable around news.
CELC sits below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, so a trend-following entry should wait for a reclaim of the 20-day near $95.00 with rising volume and confirmation that the downtrend has broken.
A sustained close below the $78.60 low would invalidate any recovery attempt. Size for gap risk rather than relying on a tight stop during launch and regulatory windows.
With 14-day RSI near 41 and price near the recent $78.60 to $82 support zone, a mean-reversion bounce is possible, but only with confirmation of launch readiness, no negative FDA or litigation news, and a defined maximum loss.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. High short interest and binary events can turn a support zone into a gap-down trap.
Track launch timing and initial REVTORPYK prescriptions, reimbursement coverage and pricing, tolerability and dose management data, the PIK3CA-mutated sNDA timeline, Q1 and Q2 2026 cash and operating burn, the $500 million convertible note conversion price near $124.53, short interest, and securities litigation status.
Reduce confidence if the launch slips, tolerability limits adoption, reimbursement or pricing disappoints, cash burn accelerates without a near-term revenue offset, litigation escalates, or competition from alpelisib and CDK4/6 combinations captures share.
Investment research summary
Celcuity is a newly commercial-stage oncology company whose first approved product, REVTORPYK (gedatolisib), is the only FDA-approved therapy inhibiting all class I PI3K isoforms plus mTORC1 and mTORC2. Oncologists and payers will pay for it if the late Q3 2026 launch delivers for HR+/HER2-, PIK3CA wild-type advanced breast cancer patients after endocrine therapy failure, reimbursement is broad, and tolerability is managed.
REVTORPYK holds a first-and-only class position with strong VIKTORIA-1 wild-type data, plus patent protection, regulatory exclusivity, and manufacturing know-how. The moat can narrow if tolerability limits adoption, pricing power is constrained by competition from alpelisib and CDK4/6 combinations, or later programs fail.
The thesis fails if the late Q3 2026 launch slips, tolerability warnings in the label limit real-world adoption, reimbursement or pricing disappoints, the PIK3CA-mutated sNDA is delayed, VIKTORIA-2 first-line data disappoint, securities litigation escalates, or cash burn forces dilutive financing on top of the $500 million convertible notes.
CEO and co-founder Brian Sullivan and the team secured the first FDA approval, raised $500 million in 0.250% convertible senior notes due 2032, and are building commercial infrastructure. The capital-allocation test ahead is launch execution, reimbursement, tolerability management, the mutant sNDA, and VIKTORIA-2 while limiting further dilution and repaying the Oxford Finance loan.
Precision oncology targeting HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer is a lasting trend. HR+/HER2- accounts for about 70% of breast cancer, about 60% of which is PIK3CA wild-type, giving REVTORPYK a large addressable market. The space is competitive, with alpelisib approved and multiple next-generation PAM pathway agents in development.
The market prices CELC at $4.21 billion based on expected future commercial cash flows rather than current earnings or revenue. With forward price-to-sales near 34.6x on 2026 consensus revenue of $38.9 million, margin of safety is limited until launch data, pricing, and reimbursement prove the revenue trajectory. The $148 lowest analyst target sits about 71% above the current price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CELC price | $86.38 at the July 31, 2026 close, $87.49 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $4.21 billion, verified as $86.38 x 48.77 million shares outstanding (0.01% deviation from the reported figure) | financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FDA approval | REVTORPYK (gedatolisib) approved July 14, 2026 for HR+/HER2-, PIK3CA wild-type locally advanced or metastatic breast cancer following progression on at least one line of endocrine therapy in the metastatic setting | Celcuity FDA approval press release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) | July 14, 2026 |
| VIKTORIA-1 wild-type efficacy | Triplet (REVTORPYK plus palbociclib and fulvestrant) median PFS 9.3 months versus 2.0 months with fulvestrant, HR 0.24 (95% CI 0.17-0.35, p<0.0001), ORR 32%; doublet median PFS 7.4 months, HR 0.33 (95% CI 0.24-0.48, p<0.0001), ORR 28% | Celcuity FDA approval press release | July 14, 2026 |
| VIKTORIA-1 mutant cohort (ASCO) | Triplet reduced risk of progression or death by 50% versus alpelisib plus fulvestrant (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.37-0.68, p<0.0001), median PFS 11.1 months versus 5.6 months, ORR 48.9%; doublet HR 0.51, median PFS 11.3 months, ORR 35.7% | Celcuity ASCO 2026 press release (SEC Form 8-K exhibit) | June 2, 2026 |
| NCCN guideline inclusion | REVTORPYK in combination with fulvestrant, with or without palbociclib, listed as a preferred Category 1 regimen for second-line or subsequent treatment of HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer without a PIK3CA mutation, announced July 30, 2026 | Celcuity press release and StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 30, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $145.191 million at March 31, 2026 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Short-term investments | $241.873 million at March 31, 2026 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Total cash plus investments | $387.064 million at March 31, 2026; company stated this was sufficient to fund planned operations for at least one year from the filing date | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt structure | $195.566 million convertible notes plus $127.862 million note payable, total liabilities $356.639 million at March 31, 2026; $500 million 0.250% convertible senior notes due 2032 priced June 3, 2026 with an initial conversion price near $124.53 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and June 2026 convertible note pricing release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 net loss | -$52.841 million, or -$0.97 per share; operating cash flow -$55.065 million | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Annual net losses | -$63.78 million FY2023, -$111.78 million FY2024, -$177.04 million FY2025 (EPS -$3.79), matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 48,347,390 shares at March 31, 2026 per the Form 10-Q; 48.77 million per StockAnalysis.com statistics | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Stockholders equity | $53.525 million at March 31, 2026 | Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy, 12 analysts, price target range $148.00 to $178.00, average $163.54, median $165 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Leerink Partners to $147 (July 17), LifeSci Capital to $165 (July 15), Craig-Hallum to $178 (July 15), Stifel maintained at $175 (July 15), Guggenheim maintained at $165 (July 15), H.C. Wainwright to $155, Citizens to $177, all after the July 14 approval | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 31, 2026 |
| Revenue and EPS forecasts | FY2026 consensus revenue $38.92 million with EPS -$3.77; FY2027 consensus revenue $393.21 million up about 910% with EPS $0.96 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 17, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 14, 2026 per StockAnalysis.com; August 13, 2026 per Barchart | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 52-week range $38.00 to $151.02, 5-day average near $84.40, 20-day near $95.00, 50-day near $100.54, 100-day near $110.47, 200-day near $103.72, 14-day RSI near 41.30, 20-day average volume about 1.82 million shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 11.15 million shares short, 22.87% of shares outstanding, 37.28% of float, 6.85 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta and volatility | Beta 0.16, implied volatility near 74.5%, 14-day historical volatility near 95% | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
| Ownership | Insiders 9.22%, institutions 65.57%, float 29.91 million shares, about 155 employees | StockAnalysis.com statistics and profile | August 3, 2026 |
This CELC AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public filings, FDA and company press releases, clinical trial disclosures, quote snapshots, technical data, and third-party sources as of August 3, 2026. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new clinical data, FDA decisions, commercial launch updates, financing events, litigation news, market moves, or macro conditions.
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