Cerebras Systems Inc. research snapshot
CBRS AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Cerebras Systems as a high-growth AI inference infrastructure company whose wafer-scale systems and cloud services have real demand, but whose revenue is highly concentrated and whose valuation leaves little room for missed execution. At the July 31, 2026 close, the latest verified quote used here was $198.71, market capitalization was about $45.0 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $198.71 times 226.53 million shares with a 0.01% deviation. The Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, filed May 2026, reported $193.4 million revenue up 94% year over year, a 44.6% gross margin, and a $14.0 million GAAP net loss, while a separate customer concentration disclosure showed Mohamed bin Zayed University of Artificial Intelligence (MBZUAI) at 63% and G42 at 11% of Q1 2026 revenue. The S-1 disclosed about $24.6 billion of unfulfilled obligations as of December 31, 2025, with a significant amount tied to the OpenAI master relationship agreement valued at more than $20 billion. July 2026 brought an AMD inference partnership, a CrowdStrike partnership, a Flex manufacturing expansion, and a Europe data center plan, with Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 12, 2026. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$198.71
Market cap
About $45.0 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
High-growth AI infrastructure with concentrated revenue and rich valuation
Trend status
Consolidating below the 50-day moving average; no 200-day average yet because the stock listed May 14, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cerebras sells wafer-scale AI compute systems and cloud capacity, with Q1 2026 revenue of $193.4 million up 94% year over year and a 44.6% gross margin, but a GAAP operating loss of $15.0 million for the quarter. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Wafer-scale engineering, systems integration, software, and new partnerships with AMD and CrowdStrike may differentiate performance, but the moat is unproven against well-funded GPU and custom-silicon alternatives. | Medium |
| Management | Founder-led management took complex hardware from research to commercial systems and closed the OpenAI arrangement and the IPO. The public record is too short to judge capital allocation through a full cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q1 2026 revenue was $193.4 million, cash and restricted cash plus investments were about $3.3 billion at March 31, 2026, but the quarter had a $14.0 million GAAP net loss, and TTM free cash flow was negative $359.2 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $198.71, financial_rigor.py calculates about 139.9x TTM EPS and a negative 0.80% free-cash-flow yield, while StockAnalysis.com lists a PE near 140x and a price-to-sales ratio near 74.5x. The price requires strong growth and improving cash conversion. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | CBRS closed at $198.71 on July 31, 2026, below its 50-day moving average near $212.87, with 14-day RSI near 48.80. A 200-day average is unavailable because trading began May 14, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risks include customer concentration, OpenAI delivery dependence, manufacturing and power constraints, margin pressure, large-cap competition, dilution and share unlocks, a securities investigation, and valuation compression. | High |
| AI confidence | Filings and Q1 results support the factual base, while forecasting confidence is constrained by a new listing, one reported quarter, and wide post-IPO volatility. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. Product differentiation and demand visibility are promising, but concentrated revenue and an elevated valuation make the execution burden unusually high. | Low-medium |
CBRS AI stock forecast
The CBRS AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $198.71 and the $1.42 TTM EPS figure reported by StockAnalysis.com. The three-year scenario framework produced a bearish area near $36, a base area near $162, and a bullish area near $406, using EPS growth of -10%, 15%, and 30% and exit multiples of 35x, 75x, and 130x. The GAAP EPS anchor includes one-time items such as non-cash interest and warrant effects, so the scenario ranges are wide and should be read as research scenarios, not price promises.
About $390 to $430
More likely if the OpenAI arrangement and other contracts convert into recognized revenue on schedule, cloud and hardware revenue scale, margins recover after deployment costs, new partnerships widen the customer base, and investors sustain a premium multiple for durable AI inference earnings.
About $150 to $180
More likely if revenue grows strongly but gross margin and free cash flow improve gradually, leaving the market to apply a lower, though still elevated, earnings multiple that is below the current price.
About $25 to $45
More likely if deliveries slip, concentrated customers reduce commitments, margin pressure persists, dilution rises, the securities investigation escalates, or the market re-rates the stock toward a hardware multiple that reflects operating losses.
CBRS AI technical analysis
CBRS AI technical analysis is limited by the May 14, 2026 IPO date, but enough sessions now exist for a 50-day moving average near $212.87. The July 31, 2026 close of $198.71 sits below that average after wide post-IPO swings, so the picture is consolidation rather than a clean trend. Confirm live data before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $198.71 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 226.53 million shares. |
| Near support | $183 to $196 | The $185 IPO price and the $195.55 July 31 intraday low form the nearest reference zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Next support | $160.81 to $176 | The $160.81 post-IPO range low is the key downside reference; the area between it and $176 was tested earlier in the trading history. |
| Near resistance | $212.87 to $215 | The 50-day moving average near $212.87 and the $214.50 July 31 intraday high are nearby supply areas to test with live volume. |
| Next resistance | $230 to $243 | The July 2026 spike highs near $230 and $243 followed the AMD and CrowdStrike partnership announcements. |
| 50-day moving average | $212.87 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day moving average near $212.87 as of August 2, 2026, above the current price. |
| 200-day moving average | Not available | The company has not traded long enough for a 200-day average, so long-term trend signals remain incomplete. |
| Momentum | Neutral RSI near 48.8 | The 14-day RSI was near 48.80 on July 31, 2026, roughly neutral after the volatile July moves. |
| Volume | About 5.36 million average shares | The 20-day average volume was near 5.36 million shares, useful for judging whether moves are supported by participation. |
| Volatility | Post-IPO range: $160.81 to $386.34 | The stock has printed daily moves of 8% to 17% in July 2026, so fixed-dollar stops and oversized positions are especially fragile. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $160.81 | A sustained close below the post-IPO range low would invalidate a range-support setup and calls for a fresh thesis review. |
CBRS AI trading strategy
The CBRS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. A new IPO with concentrated revenue needs smaller position sizing, live-data confirmation, and explicit limits on loss before any setup is considered.
Wait for a reclaim of the 50-day moving average near $212.87 with expanding live volume, then check Q2 2026 results, backlog conversion, gross-margin guidance, and whether price can hold above the breakout zone.
Do not treat a single volatile session as trend confirmation. Define loss limits before entry and reassess if the reclaim fails.
If price approaches the $183 to $196 support area, look first for stabilization and updated fundamental evidence on customers, deployments, cash use, and margin before considering a range trade.
A close below the $160.81 post-IPO range low invalidates the setup. Avoid averaging down solely because the stock is below its IPO price.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 12, 2026, revenue by customer, OpenAI delivery progress, backlog conversion, gross margin, cash burn, working capital loan status, share unlocks, and any securities investigation developments.
Lower the rating if revenue growth does not convert into improving gross margin and free cash flow, or if concentration, dilution, or legal risks increase.
Investment research summary
Cerebras designs wafer-scale AI compute systems and software, then delivers hardware and cloud capacity for customers running large AI training and inference workloads that value speed.
Its potential moat is wafer-scale engineering plus systems and software integration, now extended by partnerships with AMD, CrowdStrike, and Flex. The key unanswered question is whether this performance advantage remains durable as competing AI hardware improves.
The thesis fails if concentrated customer demand shifts, the OpenAI master relationship delivers slowly, supply or power constraints delay deployments, gross margin falls, dilution rises, or larger rivals narrow the performance gap.
Andrew Feldman leads a founder-built technical organization. The next public-market test is converting engineering ambition, the OpenAI arrangement, and IPO capital into repeatable revenue, cash discipline, and shareholder-aware capital allocation.
AI inference demand is expanding quickly, with the addressable inference market estimated at about $66 billion in 2025 and about $292 billion by 2029 per Bloomberg Intelligence, but data-center power, chip supply, model efficiency, custom silicon, and hyperscaler spending will determine how much value hardware vendors retain.
The $198.71 cutoff price implies that growth must persist and cash conversion must improve. With negative operating income and negative TTM free cash flow, a margin of safety would require more evidence than a large order book alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBRS price, shares, and market capitalization | $198.71 at the July 31, 2026 close, 226.53 million shares outstanding, and about $45.01 billion market capitalization. financial_rigor.py price times shares calculation matched the reported market cap with a 0.01% deviation. | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and gross margin | $193.4 million revenue, up 94% year over year from $99.5 million, with hardware revenue of $110.6 million, cloud and other services revenue of $82.8 million, and a 44.6% gross margin. | Cerebras Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| FY 2025 results | $510.0 million revenue, up 76% year over year, with 39% gross margin, $237.8 million GAAP net income driven by non-cash items, and a $75.7 million non-GAAP net loss. | SEC Form S-1/A prospectus | August 2, 2026 |
| Unfulfilled obligations and OpenAI arrangement | About $24.6 billion of unfulfilled obligations as of December 31, 2025, with a significant amount tied to the OpenAI master relationship agreement valued at more than $20 billion, under which OpenAI agreed to deploy 750 megawatts of compute. | SEC Form S-1/A prospectus | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at March 31, 2026 | Cash of $1.716 billion, restricted cash of $1.029 billion, and investments of $0.516 billion, against a working capital loan balance of about $0.983 billion from OpenAI. | Cerebras Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Customer concentration | MBZUAI accounted for 63% and G42 for 11% of Q1 2026 revenue, and three customers accounted for 86% of accounts receivable at March 31, 2026. G42 and MBZUAI are related parties. | Cerebras Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| IPO details | Completed May 15, 2026 at $185.00 per share, selling 34.5 million Class A shares including the full underwriters option, with net proceeds of about $6.2 billion. | Cerebras Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM profitability and cash flow | TTM revenue of $603.9 million, TTM operating income of negative $132.4 million, TTM net income of $97.7 million including one-time items, and TTM free cash flow of negative $359.2 million. | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation math | About 139.9x TTM EPS and negative 0.80% free-cash-flow yield per financial_rigor.py at $198.71, matching StockAnalysis.com PE near 140x, PS near 74.5x, and PB near 16.35x. | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 11 analysts with an average target of $292, median of $300, low of $209, and high of $340. Mizuho raised its target to $310 on July 29, 2026 and UBS holds a $320 target. | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $212.87, 14-day RSI near 48.80, 20-day average volume near 5.36 million shares, and a 52-week range of $160.81 to $386.34. No 200-day average yet. | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 10.42 million shares short, equal to 4.60% of shares outstanding and 12.96% of float, with about 1.38 days to cover. | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| July 2026 catalysts | AMD inference partnership on July 23, 2026, CrowdStrike partnership on July 22, 2026, Flex manufacturing expansion for a 7x CS-3 production increase, a Europe data center plan, and a CleanCore colocation agreement, with Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 12, 2026. | Cerebras press releases via StockAnalysis.com news | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data limitation | The 52-week range of $160.81 to $386.34 and the July 2026 daily moves of 8% to 17% show how volatile the post-IPO tape is, so long-term indicators should be treated with caution. | StockAnalysis.com market data | August 2, 2026 |
This CBRS AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong.
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