First Busey Corporation research snapshot
BUSE AI stock analysis currently reads First Busey Corporation as a well-established community bank serving retail, commercial, and wealth management clients across Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida. Founded in 1868 and headquartered in Champaign, Illinois, Busey Bank operates approximately 50 branches. The stock closed at $29.20 on July 10, 2026, for a market value near $2.47 billion. TTM revenue was about $780 million and net income was about $155 million, with a 3.56% dividend yield. The BUSE AI stock forecast is constructive in scenarios where net interest margins stabilize, credit quality holds up through the economic cycle, and the bank continues its consistent dividend trajectory. The caution in any First Busey stock analysis is that the bank operates in a competitive regional banking environment with meaningful commercial real estate exposure and interest rate sensitivity. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$29.20 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$2.47 billion verified as $29.20 x 84.58 million shares (0.01% deviation)
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Well-capitalized Midwestern community bank with a 150+ year track record, consistent dividend growth, conservative lending culture, and modest valuation relative to tangible book
Trend status
Uptrend from 52-week low with price near the top of the range, low beta of 0.72, and modest positive momentum supported by stable earnings
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Busey provides retail and commercial banking, wealth management, and fiduciary services across 50 branches in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, and Florida. Earnings are driven by net interest income (spread lending) and fee income from wealth management and deposit services. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from core deposit relationships, local market knowledge built over 150 years, regulated banking licenses, and switching costs in business banking and trust relationships. It is a standard community bank moat, not wide but not meaningless. | Medium |
| Management | First Busey has been led by Van A. Dukeman as CEO since 2021 with a focus on organic growth, measured expansion into Florida and Indiana, and maintenance of a strong dividend culture. Management has demonstrated consistent capital allocation but the track record is still being built. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has been stable around $780 million TTM with moderate growth. Net income has shown resilience through the rate cycle. The net interest margin and efficiency ratio are under pressure from the competitive deposit environment. | Medium |
| Valuation | At 13.04x trailing P/E, 1.30x P/B, and a 3.56% dividend yield, BUSE trades in line with regional bank peers. The P/E is below the 5-year average for regional banks, suggesting modest value but not deep distress. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock has rallied from a $21.63 52-week low to $29.20, a gain of about 35%. It is near the high end of the 52-week range. Momentum is positive but not overextended given the steady grind higher. | Medium |
| Risk level | The thesis can be hurt by net interest margin compression from rate cuts, commercial real estate credit deterioration, deposit cost increases outpacing asset yields, or a regional economic downturn in Illinois. The low beta of 0.72 provides some downside cushion. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for data that can be verified from SEC filings, market data, and analyst targets. Medium for forward projections because rate path, credit cycle, and competition are uncertain. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low from a timing perspective. The yield and book value provide some support, but the stock already reflects a stable bank profile. Meaningful upside requires a catalyst such as rate stabilization or accelerated market share gains. | Medium |
BUSE AI stock forecast
The BUSE AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $29.20 close rather than a point target. The bullish case requires stable or improving net interest margin and clean credit; the base case assumes modest EPS growth with steady valuation; the bearish case assumes net interest margin compression and credit normalization pressure earnings.
$34.00 to $40.00
More likely if rate cuts are gradual, the yield curve normalizes, credit quality remains benign, and the bank executes on market share gains in Florida and Indiana. EPS could reach $2.60 with multiple expansion toward 14x P/E.
$26.00 to $33.00
More likely if the bank delivers steady EPS around $2.30 to $2.50 with flat to slightly compressed net interest margin, and the stock continues to trade at 12-13x earnings with the 3.5% dividend yield providing a floor.
$19.00 to $24.00
More likely if net interest margin compresses faster than expected due to aggressive rate cuts, commercial real estate credit deterioration appears, or an Illinois-centric economic slowdown pressures loan growth.
BUSE AI technical analysis
BUSE AI technical analysis starts from the $29.20 close and the observed average volume of about 902,000 shares. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and live momentum should be confirmed in a charting tool before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.20 | Close on July 10, 2026, used as the price reference for this page. |
| Near support | $26.50 to $28.00 | The 50-day moving average and prior consolidation zone provide the first support level. Treat as a planning zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Near resistance | $30.52 to $32.00 | The 52-week high of $30.52 is the immediate resistance. A clean break above this level targets the $32 area where analyst targets converge. |
| 50-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Use current chart data before acting. The page does not fetch request-time market data. |
| 200-day moving average | Requires live chart confirmation | Long-term trend confirmation should be checked against a live chart or broker data. |
| Momentum | Moderate uptrend with low volatility | The stock has rallied about 35% from the 52-week low with below-average beta. The pace is steady rather than parabolic. |
| Volume | Approximately 902,000 shares average | Volume is consistent with the stock typical daily range. No unusual accumulation or distribution signals from the volume pattern. |
| Volatility | Low to moderate monitoring priority | With a beta of 0.72, BUSE tends to move less than the market. Position sizing should account for the stock lower daily range. |
| Invalidation | Close below $26.00 | A decisive close below $26.00 would break the intermediate uptrend and suggest the stock may revisit the $24 area or lower. |
BUSE AI trading strategy
The BUSE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, stop levels, and fresh filings or news checks.
Build a position on pullbacks toward the support zone, treating the 3.56% dividend yield as a baseline return. Scale in on weakness rather than chasing strength above $30.
Reduce the position if the dividend is cut or if credit losses spike meaningfully. A close below $26 should trigger a review of the thesis.
If BUSE pulls back to the $26.50-$28.00 support zone without a fundamental deterioration, consider adding on weakness. Look for volume to taper on the pullback as a sign of normal consolidation.
Do not add below $26 without a fresh review of net interest margin trends, credit quality, and the bank regulatory outlook.
Track the evidence that matters most for a regional bank: net interest margin trajectory, loan growth, non-performing asset trends, efficiency ratio, tangible book value growth, and the quarterly dividend declaration.
Reduce conviction if net interest margin compresses for three consecutive quarters, NPA ratios rise above peer averages, or the bank signals a dividend reduction.
Investment research summary
First Busey Corporation is a community bank holding company that generates revenue by taking deposits at low cost and lending at higher rates, plus earning fees from wealth management, trust services, and deposit account fees. Customers choose Busey for local relationship banking with a 150-year track record.
The moat is built on core deposit relationships that provide low-cost funding, local brand recognition in Champaign-Urbana and other Midwestern markets, longstanding business banking relationships with switching costs, and a regulated banking license. The moat is meaningful for a community bank but narrow relative to money-center banks.
The thesis can fail if net interest margin compresses to unprofitable levels, commercial real estate loans default in a regional downturn, deposit costs rise faster than asset yields, or technological disruption allows fintech to capture BUSE retail and small business customers.
CEO Van A. Dukeman and the executive team have focused on organic growth, measured geographic expansion, dividend consistency, and maintaining strong capital ratios. The management team has limited public track record in navigating a full rate-cutting cycle.
Regional banking faces secular headwinds from consolidation, regulatory costs, and fintech competition. However, well-run community banks with strong local relationships and diversified fee income can maintain profitability. Rate normalization and a stable yield curve benefit net interest margins.
At 13.04x P/E and 1.30x P/B with a 3.56% dividend yield, BUSE trades at a modest discount to the regional bank peer median. The three-scenario model shows a base case target of $34.70 (18.8% upside) and a bear case of $22.40 (23.3% downside), suggesting balanced risk-reward.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUSE price | $29.20 | Yahoo Finance current quote | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.47B, verified as $29.20 x 84.58M shares (0.01% deviation from reported) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 13, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 13.04x, verified as $29.20 / $2.24 EPS | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 13, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.24 per diluted share | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Book value per share | Approximately $22.46, implying P/B of 1.30x | Yahoo Finance / Google Finance | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $0.26 quarterly ($1.04 annual), 3.56% forward yield | Yahoo Finance summary data | July 13, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.72, below market average | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $21.63 to $30.52 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 84.58 million | Google Finance / Yahoo Finance | July 13, 2026 |
This BUSE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of July 13, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macroeconomic conditions change.
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