First Busey Corporation research snapshot
BUSE AI stock analysis currently reads First Busey Corporation as a profitable community bank holding company for Busey Bank, serving retail, commercial, and wealth management clients across roughly ten states. Founded in 1868 and now headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, the company runs three segments: Banking, Wealth Management, and FirsTech payments. The stock closed at $31.27 on August 3, 2026, just below its 52-week high of $31.44, for a market value near $2.60 billion. Second quarter 2026 diluted EPS of $0.69 beat the consensus estimate of $0.64, with adjusted net interest margin of 3.62% and adjusted return on average tangible common equity of 14.61%. TTM revenue was about $783 million and TTM net income was about $212 million, with a 3.33% dividend yield. The BUSE AI stock forecast is constructive while net interest margin holds, credit stays clean, and the wealth management franchise keeps growing, but the stock has already rallied about 41% over the past year and now sits near the top of its range, so the margin of safety is thinner than it was at lower levels. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$31.27 close on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$2.60 billion verified as $31.27 x 83.19 million shares (0.05% deviation)
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Profitable, well-capitalized community bank with improving profitability after its 2025 acquisition, a 3.33% dividend yield, a Q2 2026 earnings beat, and rising analyst price targets, though the stock now trades near its 52-week high
Trend status
Uptrend with price near the 52-week high, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 67 and low beta of 0.70, supported by a Q2 earnings beat and post-earnings target raises
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | First Busey earns money three ways: spread lending through Busey Bank (the Banking segment), fee income from Wealth Management, and payment processing through FirsTech. Banking generated about $583 million of 2025 revenue, Wealth Management about $70 million, and FirsTech about $22 million. TTM net income was about $212 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from core deposit relationships, 158 years of local market trust, regulated banking licenses, and switching costs in business banking and trust relationships. It is a solid community bank moat, narrow rather than wide, and more durable than a purely transactional lender. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Van A. Dukeman signed a contract extension in July 2026 that runs through July 1, 2027. Management executed a major 2025 acquisition, repurchased $128.8 million of shares in 2026 year to date, and kept capital strong with CET1 of 12.53%. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Profitability is improving after the 2025 acquisition. Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $0.69 beat consensus, adjusted return on average tangible common equity reached 14.61%, and the adjusted efficiency ratio improved to 54.0%. TTM net income of about $212 million is well above the $125 million reported for full year 2025. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At 13.06x trailing P/E, 1.09x P/B, 1.36x P/TBV, and a 3.33% dividend yield, BUSE is reasonably priced for a regional bank with improving profitability. The valuation is fair rather than cheap after the run-up, with a forward P/E of about 11.7x. | Medium |
| Technical trend | BUSE closed at $31.27 on August 3, 2026, just below its 52-week high of $31.44, up about 41% over the last year. Price sits above the 50-day moving average of $28.91 and the 200-day moving average of $25.90, with RSI near 67. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | The main risks are net interest margin compression from rate cuts, commercial real estate credit deterioration, deposit competition, and integration risk from the 2025 acquisition. Low beta of 0.70 and strong capital reduce but do not remove downside. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for figures verified across StockAnalysis, Google Finance, and the company earnings release. Medium for forward projections because the rate path, credit cycle, and acquisition integration are uncertain. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Medium. The improving fundamentals and dividend provide support, but the stock has already moved from about $22 to $31 over the past year, so the easy gains may be behind it. Upside now depends on continued margin and fee momentum. | Medium |
BUSE AI stock forecast
The BUSE AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $31.27 close rather than a point target. Seven analysts polled by S&P Global give BUSE a consensus Buy rating with an average price target of $33.29. The bullish case needs net interest margin stability and continued wealth management growth; the bearish case assumes margin compression and credit deterioration.
$34.00 to $40.00
More likely if the yield curve normalizes, adjusted net interest margin holds near 3.6%, credit stays benign, and Wealth Management keeps setting records. EPS could reach the low $2.70s in 2026 with the stock re-rating toward the upper analyst targets near $35, and buybacks providing support.
$29.00 to $34.00
More likely if EPS lands near the $2.69 consensus for 2026 with steady net interest margin, clean credit, and the stock holding at 12 to 13x earnings with a 3.3% dividend yield. The average analyst target of $33.29 sits in this range.
$24.00 to $28.00
More likely if rate cuts compress net interest margin faster than expected, commercial real estate losses rise, deposit costs outpace asset yields, or the 2025 acquisition integration disappoints. A pullback toward the 200-day moving average near $25.90 fits this case.
BUSE AI technical analysis
BUSE AI technical analysis starts from the $31.27 close on August 3, 2026. The stock is in an uptrend above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, near the 52-week high of $31.44. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, confirm moving averages and momentum in a live charting tool before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.27 | Close on August 3, 2026, used as the price reference for this page. |
| Near support | $28.91 to $30.00 | The 50-day moving average of $28.91 is the first meaningful support, with the $30 round level as near-term footing. Treat these as planning zones, not guaranteed floors. |
| Near resistance | $31.44 then $33 to $35 | The 52-week high of $31.44 is immediate resistance. Above it, the analyst target cluster from $33 to $35 (Piper Sandler at $35, KBW at $34) becomes the next zone. |
| 50-day moving average | $28.91 | Price is above the 50-day moving average, consistent with a short-term uptrend. Confirm on a live chart before trading. |
| 200-day moving average | $25.90 | Price is well above the 200-day moving average, confirming the longer-term uptrend. A move toward this level would mark a major trend change. |
| Momentum | Positive but extended | RSI near 67 is approaching overbought, and the stock is up about 41% over the last year. Momentum favors the bulls while price holds above the 50-day moving average. |
| Volume | About 911,000 shares average (20-day) | Volume on August 3 was about 846,000 shares. Post-earnings moves came on normal volume, with no clear accumulation or distribution signal yet. |
| Volatility | Low, beta 0.70 | BUSE tends to move less than the market. Position sizing should reflect the lower daily range, and RSI near 67 warrants care near resistance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28.00 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $28.91, and especially below $28.00, would break the near-term uptrend and open a path toward the $25.90 to $26.50 zone. |
BUSE AI trading strategy
The BUSE AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Pair it with position sizing, stop levels, and a check of fresh filings and news before acting.
Watch for a clean close above the 52-week high of $31.44 on volume above the roughly 911,000 share average. The analyst target cluster near $33 to $35 becomes the measured upside zone. Avoid chasing a break that fails within a few sessions.
If a break above $31.44 fails and price closes back below $30.00, treat the move as a false break. A close below $28.00 invalidates the near-term uptrend.
On pullbacks toward the 50-day moving average near $28.91, the 3.33% dividend yield offers a baseline return while the position builds. Scale in on weakness rather than chasing strength at the top of the range.
Reduce conviction if the dividend is cut, net interest margin compresses for three straight quarters, or credit losses rise materially. Revisit the thesis if price closes below $28.00.
Track the evidence that matters for a regional bank: adjusted net interest margin, loan and deposit growth, non-performing asset trends, adjusted return on average tangible common equity, efficiency ratio, tangible book value growth, and the quarterly dividend declaration. Also watch buyback execution after the $128.8 million repurchased in 2026 year to date.
Reduce exposure if net interest margin compresses meaningfully, NPA ratios rise above peer averages, or the bank signals weaker capital return. Reassess after each quarterly filing, with the next report expected around October 2026.
Investment research summary
First Busey is a community bank holding company that turns low-cost deposits into loans and earns fees from wealth management, trust, and payment services. Customers pay for relationship banking with a 158-year track record, and the 2025 acquisition expanded the deposit and loan base materially.
The moat rests on core deposit relationships that keep funding costs low, local brand trust built since 1868, switching costs in business banking and trust relationships, and regulated banking licenses. It is a genuine but narrow community bank moat, reinforced by the scale gained from the 2025 acquisition.
The thesis can fail if net interest margin compresses below the cost of funding, the 2025 acquisition delivers worse-than-expected credit or integration costs, commercial real estate defaults in a regional downturn, or fintech captures retail and small business customers faster than legacy banks adapt.
CEO Van A. Dukeman committed through July 2027. The team integrated a major 2025 acquisition, cut the adjusted efficiency ratio to 54.0%, kept CET1 at 12.53%, and repurchased $128.8 million of shares in 2026. The main open question is whether profitability holds as the purchase accounting tailwind fades.
Regional banking is consolidating under regulatory cost pressure and fintech competition, but well-run community banks with low-cost deposits and fee businesses can compound steadily. A stable or normalizing yield curve helps net interest margin, which is the swing factor for BUSE.
At 13.06x trailing P/E, 1.09x P/B, 1.36x P/TBV, and a 3.33% dividend yield, BUSE is fairly valued after a 41% one-year rally. The three-scenario model shows roughly $35.50 in the bull case, $30.75 in the base case, and $23.84 in the bear case, so risk and reward are more balanced than they were at lower prices.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUSE price | $31.27 | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global Market Intelligence) current quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $2.60B, verified as $31.27 x 83.19M shares (0.05% deviation from reported) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 13.06x (12.98x on Google Finance), verified as $31.27 / $2.39 EPS | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $2.39 per diluted share | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $28.65, implying P/B of 1.09x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $0.26 quarterly ($1.04 annual), 3.33% forward yield | StockAnalysis.com / Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Beta | 0.70 (0.72 on Google Finance), below market average | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $21.96 to $31.44 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 EPS | $0.69 diluted, above consensus of $0.64 | First Busey Q2 2026 earnings release | July 28, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, average price target $33.29 (range $31 to $35) | S&P Global via StockAnalysis.com | July 31, 2026 |
This BUSE AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, may be incomplete, and can be wrong if new filings, market prices, company events, or macroeconomic conditions change.
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