Banco Bradesco S.A. research snapshot
BBD AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Banco Bradesco as a large Brazilian financial group that earns from deposits, lending, cards, payments, insurance, wealth, investment products, and corporate banking. At the July 31, 2026 NYSE ADR close of $3.61, the reported market capitalization was $35.77 billion, while $3.61 times the 10.57 billion shares outstanding computes to $38.16 billion, a 6.68% difference consistent with the share-class and quote basis used by the reporting provider. Q1 2026, reported May 7, 2026, delivered recurring net income of R$6.811 billion, up 16.1% year over year for the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, with ROAE of 15.8%, total revenue of R$36.9 billion, and a cost-to-income ratio of 46.9%. On July 29, 2026, Bradesco announced a capital increase of up to R$10 billion, with a firm commitment of up to R$8 billion from controlling shareholders, which would add roughly 0.9 percentage points to the Common Equity Ratio. The AI score reflects a cheap valuation, improving recurring profitability, a solid dividend yield, and a Buy analyst consensus, balanced against Brazilian credit and rate risk, real-dollar translation, competition, and the new share-dilution overhang. The BBD AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise. This page is an informational research tool and not investment advice.
Current price
$3.61 July 31, 2026 NYSE ADR close
Market cap
$35.77 billion reported market capitalization; $38.16 billion computed from price times shares
AI score
65 / 100
Rating
Cheap Brazilian franchise with improving recurring returns, balanced by credit-cycle, macro, and dilution risk
Trend status
Neutral to constructive; above the 50-day average while testing the 100-day and 200-day averages near $3.63
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Bradesco earns from retail and commercial banking, consumer finance, cards and payments, insurance, pensions, capitalization products, investments, asset management, cash management, and wholesale banking. Diversification supports cross-sell but the business remains credit and rate-cycle sensitive. | High |
| Moat | Banking licenses, a long-established brand, deposits, distribution, transaction data, risk systems, payments and insurance infrastructure, and scale form the moat. Incumbent banks, digital banks, fintechs, and price-sensitive customers limit pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is recovering profitability through customer focus, technology, efficiency, and risk discipline. The July 29, 2026 capital increase of up to R$10 billion, with a firm commitment of up to R$8 billion from controlling shareholders to fund strategic investments, tests whether the plan creates value without diluting book value per share. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 IFRS net income was R$23.925 billion versus R$17.542 billion in FY2024. Bradesco reported recurring net income of R$6.811 billion, up 16.1% year over year, with 15.8% ROAE in Q1 2026, extending a nine-quarter profit recovery trend. | High |
| Valuation | Using the $3.61 July 31 ADR close, $0.42 trailing EPS, $3.26 book value per ADR, and $0.19 annual dividend, financial_rigor.py calculates 8.60x PE, 1.11x PB, and a 5.26% dividend yield. StockAnalysis reports 8.03x PE and 1.04x PB on its own EPS and book basis. Bank free cash flow is not a reliable industrial-style valuation input. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $3.61 sits above the 50-day average of $3.50 but right at the 100-day and 200-day averages of $3.63, with RSI near 53.29 and 14-day ADX near 22.26 with positive direction above negative direction. This is neutral to constructive rather than a confirmed breakout. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by Brazilian rates and inflation, consumer and corporate credit losses, provisioning, funding, regulation, currency translation, capital, competition, and changes in appetite for emerging-market financials. The capital increase adds near-term share dilution and execution uncertainty. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical filings, the latest quote, recurring results, and calculation inputs are well documented. Forecast confidence is lower because AI cannot know future credit costs, policy, currency moves, results, capital-increase take-up, or valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BBD is not an automatic buy at this price. A stronger case needs evidence that recurring returns, credit quality, capital, and earnings conversion keep improving while the ADR confirms a trend above the 200-day average and the capital increase completes without material dilution. | Medium-low |
BBD AI stock forecast
The BBD AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 ADR close of $3.61, trailing EPS of $0.42, and a three-year scenario calculation audited with financial_rigor.py. It produces bearish, base, and bullish values near $2.5, $4.0, and $5.3 before dividends, using EPS growth of 3%, 8%, and 12% and exit multiples of 6x, 8x, and 9x. These ranges are scenarios, not price promises.
$5 to $5.5
More likely if EPS compounds near 12%, recurring profitability keeps improving, credit costs stay contained, fee and insurance income grows, capital remains resilient after the R$10 billion capital increase, the real is supportive, and investors pay about 9x earnings.
$3.8 to $4.3
More likely if EPS grows near 8%, credit expansion stays selective, returns improve gradually, funding and capital remain stable, the capital increase is well received, and the ADR is valued near 8x earnings.
$2.3 to $2.7
More likely if delinquencies and provisions rise, margins or fees weaken, macro conditions deteriorate, the real depreciates, capital pressure increases, the capital increase dilutes value, or the multiple falls toward 6x earnings.
BBD AI technical analysis
BBD AI technical analysis is neutral to constructive at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart and StockAnalysis reported a $3.61 close on July 31, 2026, a $3.50 50-day moving average, a $3.63 100-day moving average, a $3.63 200-day moving average, RSI of 53.29, 14-day ADX of 22.26, and average 20-day volume near 30.2 million to 30.6 million shares. These are dated inputs and should be refreshed before trading.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $3.61 | NYSE ADR close on July 31, 2026, used as the stated valuation reference. |
| Immediate support | $3.50 to $3.58 | The 50-day moving average is near $3.50 and the 20-day near $3.58, forming the first nearby support zone, not a guarantee of demand. |
| Deeper support | $2.74 | The reported 52-week low near $2.74 in the July 31 technical snapshot. It is a major risk reference, not a forecast. |
| Near resistance | $3.63 | The 100-day and 200-day moving averages both sit near $3.63. A sustained reclaim with volume would improve the trend. |
| Higher resistance | $4.30 | The reported 52-week high near $4.30. Treat this as a reference area, not a target. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $3.58; 50-day $3.50; 100-day $3.63; 200-day $3.63 | The July 31 close was above the 20-day and 50-day averages and right at the 100-day and 200-day averages. Refresh the chart before relying on this condition. |
| Momentum and volume | RSI 53.29; ADX 22.26; 20-day average volume about 30.2 million to 30.6 million | RSI near 53 is neutral with a slight positive tilt, and ADX near 22 with positive direction above negative direction. Confirm relative volume and price behavior around the 200-day average. |
| Volatility | Monitor results, Brazil rates, credit data, USD/BRL, and capital increase news | The ADR can move sharply when provisioning, policy expectations, earnings, currency, or capital plans change. |
| Invalidation | Sustained failure below the $3.50 area | A close below the 50-day moving average near $3.50 weakens the constructive read and requires a fresh chart and fundamental review. |
BBD AI trading strategy
The BBD AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines price behavior with recurring profit, ROAE, credit costs, delinquencies, provisions, margins, fees, deposits, capital, Brazilian macro data, the real-dollar exchange rate, and capital increase developments.
Wait for BBD to reclaim and hold the $3.63 100-day and 200-day averages with volume confirmation and results that support stable credit costs, margins, and return on equity. A clear hold above $3.63 would be a more constructive trigger than buying while the ADR sits at the averages.
A failure back below the $3.50 50-day average, especially alongside weaker credit quality, provisioning, or capital increase news, reduces trend confidence. Do not use stale technical inputs.
If the ADR tests the $3.50 to $3.58 area without material deterioration in asset quality, compare updated earnings, book value, dividends, capital, provisions, Brazil macro conditions, and capital increase details with the current price.
A lower price is not automatically value. Avoid averaging down if credit losses, funding conditions, rate expectations, the real, or the capital increase execution are deteriorating.
Track recurring net income, ROAE, net interest income, fees, insurance contribution, efficiency, loan growth, NPLs, credit-cost ratio, deposits, capital ratios, dividends, Brazilian rates, inflation, employment, USD/BRL, and updates on the R$10 billion capital increase and its dilution impact.
Position sizing should reflect Brazilian banking, currency, regulatory, and dilution risk rather than relying on one valuation multiple or dividend yield.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Bradesco to save, borrow, pay, insure, invest, finance purchases, manage cash, and access consumer, business, and wholesale financial services. The group monetizes long-running customer relationships across banking and insurance, including a large insurance group with a 21.6% ROAE in Q1 2026.
Its moat comes from brand trust, licenses, deposits, distribution, transaction data, payments and risk infrastructure, insurance relationships, and scale. The moat is moderated by Brazilian bank competition, fintech adoption, and customers who can compare products digitally.
The thesis can fail if high rates, inflation, or weak employment produce greater credit losses, provisions rise faster than income, margins compress, funding costs rise, the real weakens, regulation changes, digital competitors take profitable customers, or the R$10 billion capital increase dilutes value per share.
Management is pursuing a profitability recovery through customer focus, technology, efficiency, and risk discipline. The July 29, 2026 capital increase of up to R$10 billion, with controlling shareholders committing up to R$8 billion, signals confidence but also requires disciplined deployment and an outcome that protects book value per share.
Brazilian digital banking, instant payments, financial inclusion, insurance, wealth services, and formal credit support long-term demand. The sector remains capital intensive, regulated, cyclical, and exposed to rates, inflation, employment, government policy, and fintech competition.
Near-book valuation and a single-digit PE with a solid dividend yield can offer a margin of safety only if earnings, credit quality, capital, and dividend capacity remain durable. The market-cap input has a 6.68% difference between the reported figure and the price-times-shares computation, so price, shares, and market-cap inputs must be refreshed together before acting.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BBD ADR quote, shares, and market capitalization | $3.61 July 31, 2026 close, 10.57 billion shares outstanding, and $35.77 billion reported market cap. financial_rigor.py calculates $38.16 billion from those dated inputs, a 6.68% difference consistent with the share-class and quote basis used by the reporting provider. | StockAnalysis BBD statistics and market cap | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 recurring profitability | Recurring net income of R$6.811 billion, up 4.5% quarter over quarter and 16.1% year over year for the ninth consecutive quarter of growth, with 15.8% ROAE, total revenue of R$36.9 billion, net interest income of R$20.051 billion, and a 46.9% cost-to-income ratio. This is a managerial metric and should not be substituted for IFRS net income without noting the definition. | Banco Bradesco Q1 2026 earnings release 6-K | May 7, 2026 |
| FY2025 IFRS income | R$23.925 billion IFRS net income for FY2025 versus R$17.542 billion in FY2024, with R$23.925 billion total attributable net income and R$23.673 billion attributable to shareholders of the parent. StockAnalysis reports R$23.673 billion for its standardized net income, a small difference from the IFRS total. | Banco Bradesco FY2025 IFRS financial statements 6-K; StockAnalysis financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | The Q1 2026 IFRS statement lists total assets of R$2.435 trillion and total equity of R$180.290 billion as of March 31, 2026, matching StockAnalysis balance sheet totals of R$2,435,136 million and R$180,290 million. | Banco Bradesco Q1 2026 IFRS 6-K; StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and funding context | The IFRS statement reports cash and cash equivalents of R$285.856 billion at the end of Q1 2026, while StockAnalysis lists cash and equivalents of R$27.532 billion. This large difference reflects differing line-item definitions, so neither figure is treated as industrial net cash. Deposits, securities, funding, and regulatory liquidity must be assessed together. | Banco Bradesco Q1 2026 IFRS 6-K; StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| July 29, 2026 capital increase | Bradesco announced a capital increase of up to R$10 billion, with a firm commitment of up to R$8 billion from controlling shareholders, issuing up to 302,876,396 common and 301,976,357 preferred shares at R$15.43 and R$17.64 per share. It would add about 0.9 percentage points to the Common Equity Ratio, on top of a pro forma ratio of about 12.7% disclosed on May 6, 2026. | Banco Bradesco capital increase 6-K, July 29, 2026 | July 30, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | 8.60x PE, 1.11x PB, and 5.26% dividend yield from stated ADR inputs via financial_rigor.py; StockAnalysis reports 8.03x PE, 1.04x PB, and a 5.25% yield. The July 31 snapshot also reported a $3.50 50-day average, $3.63 100-day and 200-day averages, RSI of 53.29, 14-day ADX of 22.26, and average 20-day volume near 30.2 million to 30.6 million shares. | StockAnalysis statistics; Barchart technical analysis; Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus from 6 analysts with an average price target of $4.40, a median of $4.10, and a range of $3.50 to $5.50. The July 2026 recommendation mix is 2 Strong Buy, 1 Buy, 3 Hold, and 0 Sell. Bank of America maintained Buy on July 30, 2026, and TD Cowen holds. | StockAnalysis forecast and recommendation trends | July 30, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | An annual dividend of $0.19 per ADR with a 5.25% yield, a 44.96% payout ratio, and a 19.64% one-year dividend growth rate. The last ex-dividend date was July 7, 2026. | StockAnalysis dividend data | July 31, 2026 |
This BBD AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Market data and the capital increase are subject to change.
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