Aya Gold & Silver Inc. research snapshot
AYA AI stock analysis currently reads Aya Gold & Silver as a high-growth precious metals producer with record production, rapidly expanding silver output at its Zgounder mine in Morocco, and strong exposure to the silver price cycle. Trailing twelve-month revenue reached $285.55 million, up 320.7% year over year, with TTM net income of $86.96 million and EPS of $0.60. At the August 3, 2026 close of $20.34, AYA carried a market capitalization near $2.92 billion and a trailing P/E near 34x. The stock has risen about 132% over the past 52 weeks and trades just below its all-time high of $22.00, supported by record Q2-2026 production of 1.68 million silver equivalent ounces, strong realized prices, and an advance on the Boumadine project. However, the premium valuation, single-mine concentration, short interest near 6.5% of shares, and dependence on sustained silver prices mean the setup is priced for continued growth. This page is an informational research tool and not investment advice.
Current price
$20.34
Market cap
$2.92 billion
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-growth silver producer, premium valuation
Trend status
Uptrend near all-time highs with elevated volatility, supported by record production and strong silver prices
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Aya Gold & Silver operates the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, with the Boumadine polymetallic project advancing toward a feasibility study and an Updated PEA planned for H2-2026. Q1-2026 revenue reached $117 million, up 247% year over year, and TTM revenue reached $285.55 million. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from high-grade silver reserves at Zgounder, first-mover advantage in Morocco's silver mining sector, and a growing resource base from exploration. It is narrower than diversified miners because of single-mine and single-country concentration. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Benoit La Salle has overseen a rapid production ramp at Zgounder, record quarterly results, cost reduction to $18.40 per silver equivalent ounce sold, debt repayment, and the Nasdaq listing completed in May 2026. The execution record is strong, though the track record during a down-cycle in silver prices remains untested. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue grew 320.7% year over year to $285.55 million, net income was $86.96 million, gross margin was 54.87%, and operating cash flow was $134.20 million. The company is now profitable, cash-flow generative, and holds $171.96 million in cash against $100.24 million in total debt. | High |
| Valuation | At about 33.9x TTM EPS (computed from $20.34 / $0.60) and a market cap near $2.92 billion on $285.55 million of trailing revenue, AYA trades at a premium to larger diversified miners. The forward P/E near 12.9x reflects expectations of continued strong earnings growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | AYA closed at $20.34 on August 3, 2026, above its 50-day moving average of $19.22 and 200-day moving average of $16.36, with RSI near 54. The stock is in a clear uptrend, up about 132% over the past 52 weeks, but volatility is elevated and beta is 1.69. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are silver price correction, single-mine operational concentration, Moroccan sovereign and regulatory risk, premium valuation compression, share dilution, short interest near 6.5% of shares, and high volatility amplifying downside moves. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive financial analysis and price math. Lower for forward projections because silver prices, mine costs, and political factors can diverge from recent trends. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The growth story is compelling and the company is executing well, but the entry price assumes continued silver strength and flawless execution. Margin of safety depends on how much of the recent price run already prices in record silver prices. | Medium-low |
AYA AI stock forecast
The AYA AI stock forecast is scenario-based and not a price promise. Using an August 3, 2026 reference price of $20.34, TTM EPS near $0.60, and a three-year framework, the scenarios span a bearish area near $10 to $12, a base area near $25 to $30, and a bullish area near $50 to $60. These ranges depend on silver price trends, production growth, cost control, equity dilution, and the earnings multiple the market assigns to a single-mine silver producer.
$50 to $60
More likely if silver prices stay near record levels, Zgounder throughput expands toward the 3,850 tpd evaluation target, the Updated PEA and Boumadine feasibility study come in positive, costs stay under control, and the market maintains a premium multiple for high-growth silver exposure.
$25 to $30
More likely if silver prices hold near current levels, Zgounder produces at record rates with stable costs, Boumadine advances on schedule, and the P/E normalizes toward the low 20s as growth rates decelerate from the recent hyper-growth phase.
$10 to $12
More likely if silver prices correct 20% or more, Zgounder faces operational or geological disruptions, Moroccan regulatory or tax changes emerge, costs inflate, the company issues dilutive equity, or the P/E compresses toward the mid-teens as growth slows.
AYA AI technical analysis
AYA AI technical analysis shows a strong uptrend but with elevated volatility. As of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, AYA closed at $20.34, up 3.51% on the day, with a 52-week range of $8.27 to $22.00 and a beta of 1.69. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average of $19.22 and its 200-day moving average of $16.36, with RSI near 54 and average daily volume near 465,000 shares. The all-time high of $22.00 was set in early 2026. Support and resistance levels should be confirmed with fresh intraday data before any trading decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.34 | Closing price on August 3, 2026, up 3.51% on the day. |
| All-time high | $22.00 | Set in early 2026. A breakout above this level would signal continued momentum. |
| Near support | $19.00 to $19.50 | Recent pullback support near the 50-day moving average of $19.22. |
| Deeper support | $17.80 to $18.50 | July 2026 trading lows. A break below this area would weaken the short-term bullish structure. |
| Secondary support | $16.00 to $16.50 | June 2026 lows near the 200-day moving average of $16.36. This is the key structural support. |
| Near resistance | $20.50 to $21.00 | Recent July and August highs. Watch for volume on any break above this zone. |
| Upper resistance | $22.00 | The all-time high. A decisive break above it with volume would signal a new leg higher. |
| Momentum | Bullish | Price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 54, neither overbought nor oversold. |
| Volume | Near 465,000 shares/day | 20-day average volume. Elevated volume on breakout days confirms conviction. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.69 | Price swings are higher than the broad market. Position sizing must account for multi-percent daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $16.00 | A decisive close below the June low and the 200-day moving average would suggest the uptrend has stalled or reversed. |
AYA AI trading strategy
The AYA AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personalized advice. It combines business evidence, technical confirmation, and predefined invalidation levels.
Watch for AYA to hold above the $19.00 to $19.50 support zone and attempt a breakout above the $22.00 all-time high with expanding volume and sustained silver prices near record levels.
A failed breakout or close below $19.00 should trigger a review of the setup. Given a beta near 1.69 and frequent multi-percent daily moves, position size should be smaller than for lower-volatility stocks.
If AYA pulls back toward $17.80 to $18.50 without a thesis break (silver prices still supportive, no operational disruptions), compare price action with quarterly production data and silver market trends before considering a bounce.
Avoid averaging down in a high-volatility name. Define maximum loss and position size before entry. Silver miners can gap down on metal price moves.
Track Q2-2026 financial results on August 13, 2026, Zgounder production and all-in sustaining costs, silver price trends, Boumadine drilling and feasibility milestones, the Updated PEA in H2-2026, cash flow, and debt levels.
Reduce confidence if silver prices enter a sustained decline, costs rise faster than production, the company needs dilutive financing, or short interest keeps climbing.
Investment research summary
Aya Gold & Silver produces silver from its Zgounder mine in Morocco, sells reclaimed pyrite concentrate from its Boumadine stockpile, and explores for additional precious metals deposits. Customers are global silver buyers and industrial users. Revenue is tied to silver production volume and the market price of silver.
Aya's moat is based on high-grade silver reserves at Zgounder, its established operating presence in Morocco, and a growing resource base from exploration, including the district-scale Boumadine project. The moat is narrower than diversified mining companies because AYA depends largely on a single mine in a single country.
The thesis fails if silver prices correct sharply, Zgounder encounters operational or geological issues, Moroccan government changes mining taxes or regulations, the company dilutes shareholders through equity offerings, cost inflation erodes margins, or the Boumadine feasibility study disappoints on scale or economics.
CEO Benoit La Salle has led the company through rapid production growth, record quarterly results, cost reduction, and the Nasdaq listing completed in May 2026. The management team has demonstrated execution on the Zgounder ramp, but the track record during a sustained down-cycle in silver prices has not been tested.
Silver demand is supported by industrial applications (solar, electronics, EVs), investment demand, and jewelry. Supply has been constrained by depleting mines and limited new discoveries. The secular trend is favorable, but silver prices are cyclical and sensitive to macroeconomic conditions.
At roughly $20.34 and about $2.92 billion of market value, AYA trades at about 34x trailing earnings and near 10x trailing revenue. The premium valuation reflects high growth expectations. Margin of safety is low because the current price already prices in continued silver strength and production growth.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AYA price | $20.34 closing price on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.92 billion, verified as $20.34 x 143.35M shares via financial_rigor.py (3.76% deviation from reported $2.81B) | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 143.35 million; float about 142.93M; shares up 10.88% year over year | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $285.55 million, up 320.7% year over year | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $86.96 million; TTM EPS $0.60 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1-2026 results | Revenue $117M, up 247% YoY; net income $49M, up 600% YoY; operating cash flow $70M, up 785% YoY | GlobeNewswire (Aya Gold & Silver Q1-2026 release) | May 14, 2026 |
| Q2-2026 production | Record 1.68 Moz AgEq produced, up 61% YoY and 12% QoQ, including record Zgounder silver output of 1.49 Moz | GlobeNewswire (Aya Gold & Silver Q2-2026 production release) | July 8, 2026 |
| Boumadine project update | Feasibility study progressing; Updated PEA on track for H2-2026; FS planned for completion by H2-2027 | GlobeNewswire (Aya Gold & Silver Boumadine update) | July 15, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $171.96M cash and investments, $100.24M total debt, net cash of $71.72M or $0.50 per share | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $134.20M, capital expenditures of $80.77M, free cash flow of $53.43M | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E (TTM) | About 33.9x computed as $20.34 / $0.60; StockAnalysis reports 32.36x; forward P/E near 12.9x | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta (5Y) | 1.69 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $8.27 to $22.00; 52-week change of +132.46% | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages | 50-day MA $19.22; 200-day MA $16.36 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 9.34M shares, about 6.52% of shares outstanding, days to cover 15.85 | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 4 analysts; average price target $24.07, about 18% above the current price | StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| AI score reference | GuruFocus GF Score of 68/100 reported in recent AYA coverage | GuruFocus via StockAnalysis.com news feed | July 23, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation | Three-year framework: bear near $10 to $12, base near $25 to $30, bull near $50 to $60 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario calculation | August 3, 2026 |
This AYA AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a personalized trading plan. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date, may be wrong, and should be checked against current filings, market data, and your own risk constraints. Silver mining stocks carry commodity price, operational, and country-specific risks.
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