AeroVironment Inc. research snapshot
AVAV AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads AeroVironment as a defense technology company in the middle of a hard reset. After acquiring BlueHalo in FY2026, revenue nearly doubled to $1.98 billion, but GAAP operating income was a loss of $311 million and net income was a loss of $265 million, driven by acquisition-related charges and a Q3 FY2026 restatement. The stock closed at $149.37 on July 31, 2026, down about 44% over 12 months and about 64% below its $417.86 52-week high, though it has bounced off the $135.20 low. Recent contract wins include a $117.3 million U.S. Army P550 production award, a $500 million JIATF-401 IDIQ, an $80.5 million Titan award, and a $30 million Germany program, while the $2.7 billion backlog and a $4 billion FY2030 revenue target frame the bull case. The main open questions are whether BlueHalo integration restores profitability, whether the shareholder class action over alleged SCAR contract disclosures produces liability, and whether the forward P/E near 46 can hold. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$149.37
Market cap
$7.53 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Transformational story at a reset valuation
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a steep drawdown
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AeroVironment sells uncrewed aircraft systems, loitering munitions, counter-UAS, space communications, directed energy, and cyber intelligence to U.S. and allied defense customers. Revenue doubled after BlueHalo but GAAP operating income was a $311 million loss and net income a $265 million loss in FY2026. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from IP-protected loitering munition designs (Switchblade), incumbency in UAS programs, deep DoD and allied relationships, and a combined product portfolio spanning air, space, and cyber domains after BlueHalo. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Wahid Nawabi executed the BlueHalo acquisition and unveiled a $4 billion FY2030 revenue target at the July 8, 2026 investor day. A Q3 FY2026 restatement filed June 22, 2026, GAAP losses, and board succession, including Stephen F. Page retiring, raise execution and accounting questions. | Medium-low |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue was $1.977 billion, up 141% from FY2025, with a GAAP net loss of $265 million, an operating loss of $311 million, operating cash flow of negative $78 million, and free cash flow of negative $141 million. Q4 FY2026 adjusted EPS of $1.84 beat consensus of $1.47, and FY2027 adjusted EPS consensus is about $3.24. | High |
| Valuation | The stock traded at a forward P/E near 46, about 3.8x sales, and about 1.7x book value at the cutoff. The valuation prices in a successful integration, restored profitability, and continued contract growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | AVAV closed at $149.37 on July 31, 2026, above the $135.20 52-week low but below the 50-day moving average near $164.64 and the 200-day near $235.91. Barchart rates the stock 100% sell, and RSI near 47 is neutral after bouncing off oversold. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are BlueHalo integration execution, GAAP earnings dilution, the Q3 restatement, the shareholder class action over alleged SCAR contract disclosures, short interest near 7.6% of shares and 10.1% of float, and customer concentration in the DoD. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filings, price, balance sheet, and contract data. Medium confidence for integration outcomes, profitability timing, and future contract wins. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The backlog and strategic position are stronger post-BlueHalo, but the financials and legal situation need to prove the thesis. | Medium-low |
AVAV AI stock forecast
The AVAV AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $149.37 July 31 close, not a guaranteed target. The bullish case requires successful BlueHalo integration, restored GAAP profitability, strong backlog conversion, and continued defense spending on unmanned systems. The base case assumes revenue keeps growing as integration costs phase out and the multiple stays elevated. The bearish case assumes execution problems, contract delays, litigation costs, or valuation compression.
$260 to $340
More likely if AVAV delivers toward its $4 billion FY2030 target, BlueHalo synergies materialize, GAAP profitability returns, the $2.7 billion backlog converts steadily, and the class action is resolved without material liability. The high analyst target near $326 and the MarketBeat consensus near $267 support this range.
$180 to $240
More likely if revenue grows at a double-digit pace, integration costs phase down, FY2027 adjusted EPS near $3.24 and FY2028 near $4.42 are delivered, and the stock trades between 40x and 55x forward earnings. The StockAnalysis average target near $226 sits inside this range.
$110 to $150
More likely if BlueHalo integration proves difficult, GAAP losses persist, the SCAR contract litigation produces a significant settlement or judgment, backlog conversion slows, or defense budget priorities shift away from unmanned systems. The low analyst target near $148.57 and the $135.20 52-week low frame this range.
AVAV AI technical analysis
AVAV AI technical analysis starts from the $149.37 close on July 31, 2026, used for this August 3 static page. The stock sits above the $135.20 52-week low but below the 50-day moving average near $164.64 and the 200-day moving average near $235.91, and Barchart rates it 100% sell across short, medium, and long term indicators. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $149.37 | July 31, 2026 close, with an after-hours print near $149.18, used for the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| First support | $144.53 | The first Barchart support level below the current price. A daily close under this area would test the 52-week low zone. |
| Second and third support | $139.69 to $136.58 | Barchart second and third support levels leading into the $135.20 52-week low, which acted as a floor since late June 2026. |
| First resistance | $152.48 | The first Barchart resistance level just above the current price, reflecting the recent consolidation range. |
| Second and third resistance | $155.59 to $160.43 | Barchart resistance levels that cap near-term upside. A sustained break above this zone would signal stronger momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $164.64 | AVAV traded below its 50-day moving average at the cutoff, keeping the near-term technical structure bearish. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $235.91 | The 200-day moving average is far above the price, reflecting the steep decline from the $417.86 52-week high in October 2025. |
| Momentum | RSI approximately 47, neutral | RSI recovered from oversold to neutral at the cutoff. The move off the $135.20 low is a first sign of stabilization but not yet a trend turn. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.5 million shares | Twenty-day average volume is about 1.5 million shares. A durable recovery would need accumulation on up days above recent averages. |
| Volatility | Implied volatility near 77% | Options implied volatility near 77% and a five-day expected move near $9 imply wide daily ranges. Position sizing should account for continued large swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $135.20 or sustained break above $160 | A close below the $135.20 52-week low would extend the downtrend. A sustained break above $160 with volume would be the first technical improvement signal. |
AVAV AI trading strategy
The AVAV AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, and it flags the class action and September earnings as scheduled catalysts.
Avoid catching a falling knife. Wait for AVAV to hold above the $135.20 low, reclaim the $155 to $165 area with improving volume, and show a series of higher lows before treating momentum as turning. A move through $160 with volume would be the first constructive signal.
A daily close below $135.20 invalidates a bottoming hypothesis and suggests the downtrend may continue. Do not add to a position that breaks the 52-week low.
If AVAV holds above $144.53 and shows a high-volume reversal day or a bullish divergence after the oversold RSI, a bounce toward $155 to $165 is possible. Confirm with contract news, backlog disclosures, and the September 8 earnings report.
Do not trade on RSI alone. Volume confirmation and a catalyst are needed for a durable bounce, and maximum loss should be defined before entry.
Track FY2027 quarterly results for GAAP profitability, BlueHalo revenue contribution, backlog conversion, operating cash flow, the status of the shareholder class action, and any decision on the Army high energy laser program.
Lower conviction if GAAP losses persist, the restatement history expands, or litigation produces material liability. The forward P/E near 46 leaves limited room for execution misses.
Investment research summary
AeroVironment builds drones, loitering munitions, counter-UAS systems, space communications, directed energy, and cyber intelligence tools for military and intelligence customers. The BlueHalo acquisition created a full-spectrum defense technology firm with roughly $1.98 billion in revenue.
The moat is built on decades of UAS incumbency, proprietary loitering munition designs (Switchblade), deep DoD and allied relationships, and a combined product portfolio spanning air, space, and cyber domains that few peers offer.
The thesis can fail if BlueHalo integration proves harder or slower than expected, GAAP profitability does not recover, the Q3 restatement points to deeper accounting issues, the SCAR class action creates material liability, backlog conversion disappoints, or defense budget allocations shift away from unmanned systems.
Management executed a transformative acquisition, raised a $4 billion FY2030 target at the July 8 investor day, and won several contracts in July 2026. Key monitoring items are GAAP profitability, the litigation, the restatement history, and board succession after Stephen F. Page announced his retirement.
The unmanned systems and defense technology market is in a secular growth phase driven by modern warfare lessons from Ukraine, the DoD Replicator initiative, counter-UAS demand, NATO modernization, and record global defense budgets.
At roughly 46x forward earnings, about 3.8x sales, and about 1.7x book value, the stock prices in a successful integration and a return to profitability. The margin of safety would widen with evidence of GAAP profit recovery or a lower entry price.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV price | $149.37 close on July 31, 2026, after-hours near $149.18 | StockAnalysis.com, MarketBeat, and Barchart quote snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $7.53 billion, verified as $149.37 x 50.42 million shares; $7.56 billion at 50.61 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, StockAnalysis.com, MarketBeat, and SEC FY2026 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $1.977 billion, up 140.9% | SEC FY2026 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 net income | -$265.12 million GAAP loss | SEC FY2026 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 diluted EPS | -$5.40 | SEC FY2026 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 EPS | $1.84 (beat consensus of $1.47), revenue up 133.3% year over year | AVAV Q4 FY2026 earnings release, June 29, 2026, and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $632.3 million at April 30, 2026, including $377.3 million cash | SEC FY2026 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Total and long-term debt | $747.5 million total debt, $729.0 million long-term debt | SEC FY2026 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Backlog | $2.7 billion; remaining performance obligations $1.18 billion per the 10-K | AVAV investor day and FY2026 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Share count | 50.61 million shares outstanding per the 10-K, 50.42 million per StockAnalysis.com | SEC FY2026 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward P/E and PS | Forward P/E 46.12, price to sales 3.81 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | StockAnalysis.com Buy with average target $225.77 (20 analysts, low $148.57, high $326); MarketBeat Moderate Buy with average target $266.68 (24 analysts) | StockAnalysis.com forecast and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.84 million shares, 7.62% of shares out, 10.14% of float | StockAnalysis.com statistics and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $135.20 to $417.86, about 64% below the high | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
This AVAV AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
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