Grupo Aval Acciones y Valores S.A. research snapshot
AVAL AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Grupo Aval as a dominant Colombian bank holding company with improving reported earnings and a strong price recovery. The latest verified close used here was $5.28 on July 31, 2026, market capitalization was about $6.19 billion to $6.27 billion, and the stock traded near 13x trailing earnings with a 0.67x price-to-book ratio and a 2.40% dividend yield. Grupo Aval grew FY2025 net income about 70% in COP terms and TTM net income about 34% from a year earlier, but the ADR has already rallied about 85% over 52 weeks and now trades above the three-analyst consensus target of $4.60. The key question is whether Colombian economic stabilization, net interest margin recovery, and Central American expansion can justify the recovered price. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$5.28
Market cap
$6.19 billion to $6.27 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Improving Colombian bank holding whose ADR now trades above the analyst consensus target
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a sharp 52-week recovery
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Grupo Aval is a Colombian holding company that controls four banks (Banco de Bogota, Banco de Occidente, Banco Popular, Banco AV Villas), a pension fund, and merchant banking operations, with the largest banking franchise in Colombia by deposits and loans. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Aval benefits from a dominant Colombian banking franchise with nationwide branch networks, deep low-cost deposit bases, and regulatory barriers to entry. The moat depends on Colombian economic and political stability and on the regulatory environment. | Medium |
| Management | Controlled by the Sarmiento family through a multi-layer structure with about 80% indirect ownership. Day-to-day management is professional, but minority shareholder influence is limited, and capital allocation is tested against the controlling stake. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income rose about 69.63% to 1.72 trillion COP on revenue of 13.39 trillion COP, up 19.83%. TTM revenue reached 14.01 trillion COP, up 20.13%, with TTM net income of 1.70 trillion COP, up 34.37% in COP terms. | Medium |
| Valuation | At the $5.28 close the ADR trades near 13x trailing earnings, about 0.67x book value, 1.62x sales, and a forward P/E near 9.4x, with a 2.40% dividend yield. The valuation is no longer as cheap as in early 2026 because the stock has rallied about 85% in a year. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | AVAL holds above the 50-day moving average near $5.01 and the 200-day near $4.46, with RSI near 60.7 and a Barchart technical opinion of 88% Buy. Resistance sits near $5.35 to $5.42 with the $6.20 52-week high overhead after a pullback from the June peak. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are Colombian macroeconomic volatility, COP/USD depreciation, loan portfolio asset quality, controlling shareholder concentration, limited ADR liquidity, and the possibility that a recovered price has outpaced fundamentals and analyst targets. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium confidence for filing-backed financial data, market pricing, and technical levels. Lower confidence for future returns given thin analyst coverage, Colombian macro uncertainty, and the post-rally valuation. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. Reported results are improving and the trend is positive, but the ADR now trades above the average analyst target of $4.60, which leaves limited margin of safety unless fundamentals keep compounding. | Medium-low |
AVAL AI stock forecast
The AVAL AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $5.28 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. A two-year scenario model anchored on current EPS near $0.40 per ADR produces a bull anchor near $7.00, a base anchor near $4.60, and a bear anchor near $3.00 before dividends. The bullish case requires Colombian economic improvement to continue and net interest margins to expand. The base case tracks the analyst consensus near $4.60. The bearish case assumes macro deterioration or asset quality problems after a large price recovery.
$6.50 to $7.50
More likely if Colombian GDP growth accelerates, inflation stays controlled, net interest margins expand, the peso stabilizes or appreciates, and the market re-rates Aval toward a 14x earnings multiple on continued double-digit earnings growth.
$4.60 to $5.60
More likely if earnings grow at a mid-single-digit rate, dividends continue, the Colombian economy grows moderately, and the stock trades in a 10x to 13x PE range near the current analyst consensus target of $4.60.
$3.00 to $4.00
More likely if Colombian growth slows sharply, non-performing loans rise, the peso depreciates significantly, the recovered valuation compresses, or the controlling shareholder takes actions that disadvantage minority holders.
AVAL AI technical analysis
AVAL AI technical analysis starts from the $5.28 close of July 31, 2026 used for this August 3 static page. The ADR is in an uptrend above the 50-day moving average near $5.01 and the 200-day near $4.46, after rallying from a $2.80 52-week low to a $6.20 high in June and then pulling back to consolidate. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $5.28 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close, up 2.75% on the day, used as the reference for this page. |
| Near support | $5.04 to $5.16 | Barchart support levels from the daily turning points table. The July 28 swing low near $4.63 sits just below as a short-term reference. |
| Secondary support | $4.90, then $4.50 | The Fibonacci 61.8% retracement near $4.90 and the 50% retracement near $4.50 of the $2.80 to $6.20 move. The 200-day average near $4.46 is close to the 50% level. |
| Near resistance | $5.35 to $5.42 | Barchart resistance levels from the daily turning points. Daily closes above $5.42 would open the path toward the June highs. |
| Major resistance | $6.00 to $6.20 | The 52-week high zone reached on June 22, 2026. A sustained break above $6.20 would confirm continuation of the recovery trend. |
| 50-day moving average | Approximately $5.01 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day moving average near $5.01, below the current price and supportive of the uptrend. |
| 200-day moving average | Approximately $4.46 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day moving average near $4.46, well below the current price and confirming the long-term recovery trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 60.7 | RSI was near 60.7 at the cutoff, firm but not overbought. Barchart technical opinion was 88% Buy with a strongest short-term outlook. |
| Volume | Average volume about 144,000 shares over 20 days | Moderate liquidity for an ADR. Volume on July 30 and July 31 was higher than the 20-day average, which supports the recent upside. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.41 to 0.59 | StockAnalysis.com reported a 5-year beta near 0.41 and Barchart near 0.59 for 60 months, lower than the market average. |
| Invalidation | Close below $4.90, then $4.50 | A close below the Fibonacci 61.8% level near $4.90 would weaken the near-term structure. A break below $4.50 and the 200-day average would challenge the recovery trend. |
AVAL AI trading strategy
The AVAL AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels for an emerging-market bank ADR that has already recovered sharply.
Look for AVAL to hold above the 50-day moving average near $5.01 and break resistance near $5.35 to $5.42 with rising volume. A sustained move above the $6.20 52-week high would confirm continuation, but the ADR already trades above the analyst consensus target of $4.60.
A failed breakout or a daily close below $5.04, then $4.90, should reduce confidence in the near-term bullish setup. Chasing after a roughly 85% 52-week rally without confirmation raises the risk of buying near resistance.
If AVAL pulls back toward the $4.90 to $5.16 area without a structural thesis break, watch for stabilization, Colombian macro data, and the August 12, 2026 earnings report for timing. Do not assume the 200-day average near $4.46 is a hard floor.
Define maximum loss before entry. ADR structure and moderate liquidity can lead to wider bid-ask spreads than large-cap US equities, so size positions accordingly.
Track the August 12, 2026 earnings report, Colombian central bank interest rate decisions, COP/USD exchange rate, non-performing loan trends, loan growth, segment revenue, dividend payments, and regulatory developments. Aval files a Form 20-F annually.
Be alert for changes in controlling shareholder structure, dividend cuts, weaker net income growth after the 2025 jump, or adverse Colombian regulatory and tax policy changes.
Investment research summary
Grupo Aval is a Colombian holding company that owns and operates the country's largest banking group by deposits and loans, earning net interest income and fee income from four banks, a pension fund, and merchant banking activities across Colombia and Central America.
Aval's moat comes from its dominant Colombian banking franchise, extensive branch and ATM network, deep low-cost deposit base, established brand recognition, and regulatory barriers to new entrants. The moat is limited to Colombia and remains sensitive to the country's economic and political stability.
The thesis fails if Colombian inflation stays high, economic growth stalls, non-performing loans pressure bank capital, the peso devalues sharply, controlling shareholder governance diverges from minority interests, or the country risk premium widens after the strong price recovery.
The Sarmiento family controls about 80% of the shares through a multi-layer ownership structure. Day-to-day management is professional and reported profitability improved sharply in 2025, but minority shareholders have limited influence over major decisions.
Colombian banking benefits from a growing middle class, low loan penetration versus OECD peers, and demographic tailwinds. The long-term trend is positive but cyclical with the Colombian economy and sensitive to politics, commodity prices, and the exchange rate.
At near 13x trailing earnings, about 0.67x book value, and a 2.40% dividend yield, the ADR no longer screens as the deep-value opportunity it was at the $2.80 low. The margin of safety has narrowed because the stock already trades above the analyst consensus target of $4.60.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVAL ADR price | $5.28 close on July 31, 2026, up 2.75% on the day | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.19 billion (StockAnalysis.com) to $6.27 billion (Barchart), verified as $5.28 x 1,187,174,000 ADR shares with 0.03% deviation | StockAnalysis.com statistics, Barchart quote, and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 1,187,174,000 ADR-equivalent shares (Barchart); about 23.74 billion company shares total (StockAnalysis.com), with one ADR representing a fixed multiple of company shares | Barchart quote fundamentals and StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | About $3.83 billion in USD, or 14,012,457 million COP, up 20.13% from the prior year | StockAnalysis.com financials (S&P Global data, reported in COP) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | About $463.56 million in USD, or 1,696,919 million COP, up 34.37% from the prior year | StockAnalysis.com statistics (S&P Global data, reported in COP) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of 13,390,844 million COP, up 19.83%, and net income of 1,721,872 million COP, up 69.63%, with EPS of 72.52 COP | StockAnalysis.com financials (S&P Global data, reported in COP) | August 3, 2026 |
| P/E ratio | Near 13x trailing earnings (13.36x on StockAnalysis.com, 12.56x on Barchart), with a forward P/E near 9.4x | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart quote | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) per ADR | About $0.40 per ADR (Barchart reported $0.41; derived from $463.56 million net income over 1.187 billion ADR shares) | Barchart quote and StockAnalysis.com statistics, cross-checked with Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Price-to-book ratio | Approximately 0.67x, with price-to-sales near 1.62x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of $0.13 per ADR, yield of 2.40%, paid monthly, with 30.78% dividend growth over one year and last ex-dividend date of July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | $2.80 to $6.20, with a 52-week price change of about +85.26%; the 52-week high was reached on June 22, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com history and Barchart performance | August 3, 2026 |
| Beta | Near 0.41 (StockAnalysis.com, 5-year) to 0.59 (Barchart, 60-month) | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Return on equity | Approximately 9.60% (TTM), with return on assets near 0.95% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $5.01, 200-day near $4.46, RSI near 60.7, average 20-day volume near 144,000 shares, and a Barchart technical opinion of 88% Buy | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold from three analysts with an average price target of $4.60, which is 12.88% below the current price; low target $4.00 and high target $5.20 | StockAnalysis.com forecast (S&P Global and TipRanks data) | August 3, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Next earnings report scheduled for August 12, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This AVAL AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. Investing in emerging-market ADRs involves additional risks including currency fluctuation, political instability, and differing regulatory and accounting standards.
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