Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
ALRM AI stock analysis currently reads Alarm.com Holdings as a profitable SaaS and IoT platform for connected properties, serving residential and commercial security markets through a nationwide dealer network. The latest verified close was $50.99 on July 8, 2026, and the reported market capitalization was about $2.522 billion. Alarm.com generated approximately $1.04 billion of TTM revenue and $128.2 million of TTM net income through Q1 2026, maintaining strong gross margins above 70% and a 12.4% net profit margin. The company holds $499 million in cash against moderate debt, with levered free cash flow of about $89.5 million in the trailing twelve months. The central question is whether Alarm.com can sustain mid-single-digit to low-double-digit revenue growth as the connected home market matures while expanding commercial and energy verticals. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$50.99 close on July 8, 2026
Market cap
$2.522 billion reported intraday, with $2.52 billion independently calculated from $50.99 and 49.47 million shares
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Profitable IoT platform with recurring SaaS revenue and smart home growth, but valuation offers limited margin of safety
Trend status
Neutral to slightly positive with price above the 200-day average but below the 52-week high, momentum improving from early 2026 lows
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Alarm.com operates a cloud-based SaaS platform connecting security systems, video cameras, smart thermostats, door locks, and energy devices for residential and commercial properties. Revenue is predominantly recurring through monthly SaaS fees paid by dealers. | High |
| Moat | The primary defenses are the dealer network relationship (over 7,000 service providers), proprietary cloud platform integration, brand recognition among installers, and data network effects from millions of connected devices. However, DIY platforms and big-tech ecosystems present real competitive pressure. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder Steve Trundle has led the company since 2000 and remains CEO, with significant insider ownership aligning incentives. Management has demonstrated disciplined capital allocation with strategic acquisitions (OpenEye, EnergyHub) balanced against share buybacks. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of approximately $1.04 billion with consistent mid-single-digit to low-double-digit organic growth. Net profit margin of 12.4% and ROE of 14.8% indicate solid profitability. Free cash flow conversion is reasonable but levered FCF of $89.5M trails net income due to working capital and capex. | High |
| Valuation | At $50.99, the stock trades at 21.1x TTM GAAP EPS, 2.78x TTM revenue, and 28.2x TTM levered free cash flow. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 11.2x is reasonable for a profitable SaaS company, but the forward growth rate of 5-10% does not justify a premium to the sector. | High data confidence |
| Technical trend | The July 8 close of $50.99 is above the estimated 200-day moving average near $46.50 but below the 50-day moving average of approximately $48.80. The price is recovering from early 2026 lows near $42 and testing the mid-range of the 52-week band. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. ALRM faces competition from large tech platforms, DIY security disruption, dealer concentration, smart home technology commoditization, and potential slowdown in new housing starts. The balance sheet is healthy with $499M in cash. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported financial figures and market data. Forecast confidence is medium because the competitive landscape evolves quickly and future SaaS subscriber growth depends on dealer acquisition trends and housing market conditions. | High data, medium forecast |
| Investment certainty | ALRM is a steady compounder in the smart home space rather than a high-growth disruptor. The investment case depends on sustaining SaaS subscriber growth, expanding commercial and energy verticals, and maintaining margins against competitive pressure. | Medium |
ALRM AI stock forecast
The ALRM AI stock forecast uses a transparent three-year scenario model starting from TTM GAAP EPS of $2.42. The financial_rigor.py model used 15%, 10%, and 5% annual EPS growth with terminal multiples of 28x, 22x, and 15x, producing approximately $103.10, $70.90, and $42.00. The starting EPS is based on trailing data, and actual results depend on subscriber growth, competitive dynamics, and margin trends.
$90 to $110
More likely if Alarm.com accelerates SaaS subscriber growth through commercial expansion and energy vertical success, maintains gross margins above 70%, expands operating margins through scale, and the market rewards the recurring revenue model with a higher multiple.
$60 to $80
More likely if Alarm.com sustains mid-single-digit revenue growth, maintains current margins, generates steady free cash flow, buys back shares, and the valuation multiple remains near the current 21x PE level based on gradually growing EPS.
$30 to $48
More likely if DIY smart home platforms erode the dealer-based model, subscriber additions slow meaningfully, pricing pressure compresses margins, debt from acquisitions becomes a burden, or new housing starts decline sharply.
ALRM AI technical analysis
ALRM AI technical analysis uses the July 8, 2026 closing price of $50.99 and available price range history reviewed before the July 12 cutoff. The estimated 200-day simple moving average is approximately $46.50 and the 50-day SMA is approximately $48.80, based on the 52-week range of $41.49 to $59.53. The technical signal is neutral to constructive as the stock recovers from its early 2026 lows. Levels should be treated as zones rather than exact predictions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $50.99 | Yahoo Finance closing snapshot for July 8, 2026. Pre-market activity on July 13 showed $51.43. |
| Immediate support | $49.65 to $50.35 | The recent July 8 intraday low was $49.65 and the open was $50.35, marking a short-term demand zone. |
| Secondary support | $41.49 to $44.00 | The 52-week low of $41.49 from the current cycle. The estimated 200-day SMA near $46.50 sits between current price and the low. |
| Pivot resistance | $53.00 to $55.00 | Price must reclaim the $53 level to confirm recovery momentum. The 52-week high of $59.53 is the ultimate resistance target. |
| Major resistance | $59.53 | The 52-week high. A high-volume close above this level would mark a new uptrend and negate the 12-month downtrend. |
| Moving averages | 50-day estimated ~$48.80; 200-day estimated ~$46.50 | Estimated from price range data. The current price above the 200-day SMA is constructive, but a 50-day SMA reclaim is needed for near-term bullish confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI estimated near 55-60 (recovering from oversold) | The stock declined from the $55-60 range in early 2026 to lows near $42 before recovering. Price action suggests momentum is turning positive but has not reached overbought territory. |
| Volume | About 617,000 shares on July 8, 2026 | Yahoo Finance reported volume of 617,295 on July 8 against an average volume of 544,613, indicating slightly above-average trading interest. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.77; 52-week range $41.49 to $59.53 | The sub-1.0 beta indicates lower volatility than the overall market. The 44% annual range reflects moderate event and sector risk for a small-cap SaaS stock. |
| Invalidation | Close below $49.65, then $46.50 | A decisive close below $49.65 would weaken recovery confidence. A break below the 200-day SMA near $46.50 would suggest the renewed downtrend is intact and require a fundamental reassessment. |
ALRM AI trading strategy
The ALRM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price action with SaaS subscriber growth, revenue trends, margin progression, free cash flow generation, competitive developments, and housing market conditions.
Watch for ALRM to reclaim and hold above the $51-53 area on above-average volume, then challenge the $55-59 zone while SaaS subscriber additions, revenue growth, and margin guidance remain constructive.
A close below $49.65 reduces near-term trend confidence. A close below $46.50 (estimated 200-day SMA) invalidates the recovery thesis and should trigger a review of subscriber metrics, competitive position, and forward guidance.
If price tests the $45-48 band without a new fundamental deterioration, compare the drawdown against SaaS subscriber growth trends, churn rates, commercial segment expansion, and the base and bearish scenario assumptions.
Do not treat a lower price as cheap if the market is repricing the competitive threat from DIY platforms, slowing new housing starts, or margin compression from dealer pricing demands.
Track total SaaS and license revenue, subscriber additions and churn, average revenue per subscriber, gross margin trends, operating margin, free cash flow, cash and debt balances, and commentary on competitive dynamics from earnings calls.
The estimated August 6, 2026 earnings date is a scheduled review point. A revenue beat without improving SaaS subscriber metrics or free cash flow would not by itself confirm the investment case.
Investment research summary
Customers (security dealers and their end-users) pay Alarm.com for a cloud-based platform that connects, monitors, and controls security systems, cameras, thermostats, door locks, and energy devices. The value proposition is professional-grade reliability, dealer-branded experience, and a single integrated app for the connected property.
The moat comes from the dealer network of over 7,000 professional service providers who standardize on Alarm.com for their smart home offerings, the proprietary cloud infrastructure, integrated hardware ecosystem, and data advantages from millions of connected devices. It is not an impenetrable moat because Amazon, Google, Ring, and ADT offer competing platforms with different go-to-market models.
The thesis fails if the dealer model becomes disintermediated by DIY smart home platforms like Ring or Google Nest, competition forces pricing compression on SaaS fees, subscriber growth stalls due to housing market weakness or market saturation, a major dealer relationship is lost, or energy and commercial verticals fail to meaningfully contribute to growth.
Founder and CEO Steve Trundle has led Alarm.com since 2000, with deep domain expertise and significant insider ownership. Management has balanced organic growth with strategic tuck-in acquisitions (OpenEye in video surveillance, EnergyHub in clean energy) while maintaining a solid balance sheet. Capital allocation discipline is moderate with buybacks accompanying acquisition spending.
The connected property and smart home market continues to grow, driven by security awareness, energy efficiency demands, aging population safety needs, and insurance industry adoption. However, the market is also maturing with DIY alternatives, big-tech platform competition, and potential commoditization of basic smart home features.
At $50.99, the stock was about 21.1x TTM GAAP EPS and 28.2x TTM levered free cash flow. The audited three-year base scenario was near $70.90, which is about 39% above the current price and provides a moderate margin of safety if the company sustains 10% EPS growth. The bullish scenario near $103 depends on accelerating growth and multiple expansion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM price | $50.99 closing price on July 8, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $2.522 billion reported intraday; $2.52 billion from $50.99 x 49.47 million shares, 0.02% variance | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py verification | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $1.04 billion trailing twelve months | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM GAAP net income and diluted EPS | $128.21 million net income and $2.42 diluted EPS | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 quarterly results | $265.19 million revenue and $34.68 million net income | Yahoo Finance earnings data | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $499.35 million total cash; Total debt/equity ratio of 62.71% | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $89.48 million levered free cash flow TTM | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples calculation | PE 21.07x, PB 2.86x, PS 2.78x, EV/Revenue 2.44x, EV/EBITDA 11.22x | Yahoo Finance statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $41.49 to $59.53 | Yahoo Finance statistics page | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario target prices | Bullish $103.10 (15% growth, 28x PE), Base $70.90 (10% growth, 22x PE), Bearish $42.00 (5% growth, 15x PE) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
This ALRM AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, subscriber metrics, competition, housing market conditions, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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