Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
ALRM AI stock analysis currently reads Alarm.com Holdings as a profitable, recurring-revenue SaaS and IoT platform for connected properties whose momentum improved through the first half of 2026. The latest verified close was $55.54 on August 3, 2026, and the market capitalization was about $2.75 billion, cross-validated across StockAnalysis and Barchart. Alarm.com generated roughly $1.04 billion of trailing twelve month revenue and $128.21 million of TTM net income through Q1 2026, with a 65.83% gross margin, roughly 95% SaaS revenue retention, and about $168.83 million of TTM free cash flow. The Q1 2026 report beat expectations, revenue grew 11% year over year, management raised full year 2026 guidance, and the board authorized a new $150 million buyback. The key open question is whether Q2 2026 results, due August 6, 2026, confirm the momentum against memory cost inflation, lower tariff pass-through fees, and competitive pressure from DIY platforms. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$55.54 close on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$2.75 billion at the August 3, 2026 close, verified as 49.46 million shares multiplied by $55.54 with a 0.11% variance
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Profitable recurring-revenue SaaS and IoT platform with improving momentum, strong retention, and reasonable valuation, but Q2 2026 results were unreported at the cutoff and hardware faces memory and tariff cost pressure
Trend status
Constructive. Price sits above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $52.77, $48.40, and $48.22, with a 14-day RSI near 68 and an ADX near 31.5 pointing to a strengthening uptrend toward the 52-week high of $59.53
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Alarm.com operates a cloud-based SaaS platform that connects security systems, video cameras, thermostats, door locks, and energy devices for residential and commercial properties. Revenue is predominantly recurring through monthly SaaS fees, with about $707 million of TTM SaaS and license revenue versus about $330 million of hardware and other. | High |
| Moat | The main defenses are the dealer network of thousands of professional service providers, proprietary cloud integration, brand recognition among installers, and data advantages from millions of connected devices. DIY platforms and big-tech ecosystems create real competitive pressure, and hardware is more easily replicated than software. | Medium-high |
| Management | Founder Steve Trundle has led the company since 2000 and remains CEO, with insider ownership near 5% aligning incentives. Management retired $500 million of convertible notes in January 2026, repurchased 428,000 shares in Q1 2026, and authorized a new $150 million buyback while remaining opportunistic about tuck-in acquisitions like OpenEye and EnergyHub. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of about $1.04 billion with 8.6% growth, a 65.83% gross margin, and a 12.36% net margin. Q1 2026 revenue grew 11% year over year with a 95.4% SaaS revenue retention rate, one of the highest readings in ten years. TTM free cash flow of about $168.83 million is healthy and funds the buyback. | High |
| Valuation | At $55.54, the stock trades at 23.05x TTM GAAP EPS, about 19.75x forward non-GAAP EPS based on the $2.81 to $2.82 full year 2026 guide, 2.65x TTM revenue, and 16.29x TTM free cash flow. EV/EBITDA of about 16.7x per StockAnalysis is reasonable for a profitable SaaS company growing at mid-single-digit to low-double-digit rates. | High |
| Technical trend | The August 3 close of $55.54 sits above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $52.77, $48.40, and $48.22, with a 14-day RSI near 68 and an ADX near 31.5 pointing to a strengthening uptrend. The stock has recovered from early 2026 lows near $41.50 and is approaching the 52-week high of $59.53. | High |
| Risk level | Risk is medium. Near-term headwinds include memory cost inflation, reduced tariff pass-through fees, competition from DIY platforms, housing market sensitivity, and dealer concentration. The balance sheet is solid with about $499 million of cash against $566.73 million of total debt. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported financials, market data, and technical levels that matched across sources. Forecast confidence is medium because Q2 2026 results were unreported at the cutoff and hardware and competitive dynamics can change quickly. | High data, medium forecast |
| Investment certainty | ALRM is a steady compounder in the smart home space rather than a high-growth disruptor. The investment case depends on sustaining roughly 95% retention, growing EnergyHub and commercial verticals, and defending margins against memory and tariff costs. | Medium |
ALRM AI stock forecast
The ALRM AI stock forecast uses a transparent three-year scenario model built on the full year 2026 non-GAAP EPS guide of $2.81 to $2.82 (midpoint $2.815). The financial_rigor.py model applied 10%, 7%, and 3% annual EPS growth with terminal multiples of 25x, 20x, and 15x, producing approximately $93.70, $69.00, and $46.10. Actual results depend on Q2 and full year execution, retention, EnergyHub growth, hardware margins, and competitive dynamics.
$85 to $95
More likely if Alarm.com sustains the Q1 momentum with retention near 95%, EnergyHub and commercial verticals grow in the 25% to 30% range, management holds the path to about 21% adjusted EBITDA margin by the end of 2027, memory costs normalize, and the market rewards the recurring model with a multiple above 25x.
$62 to $74
More likely if Alarm.com delivers mid-single-digit to low-double-digit SaaS growth, holds margins while absorbing memory and tariff costs, continues buybacks, and the valuation multiple stays near the current forward level of about 19 to 20x on gradually growing EPS.
$40 to $48
More likely if DIY platforms erode the dealer-based model, memory cost inflation compresses hardware margins for longer than expected, subscriber growth stalls on housing weakness, a major dealer relationship is lost, or Q2 2026 results disappoint on August 6, 2026.
ALRM AI technical analysis
ALRM AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 closing price of $55.54 and moving averages and momentum readings from StockAnalysis and Barchart at the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock sits above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages near $52.77, $48.40, and $48.22, with a 14-day RSI near 68 and a 52-week range of $41.49 to $59.53. Levels are zones, not exact predictions, and the August 6, 2026 Q2 report is the next scheduled catalyst.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $55.54 | StockAnalysis closing snapshot for August 3, 2026. After hours traded near $54.43, about 2% below the close. |
| Immediate support | $54.40 to $55.00 | The August 3 after-hours level and the 5-day moving average near $54.94 mark a short-term demand zone. |
| Primary support | $52.77 to $53.00 | The 20-day moving average near $52.77 and the late July consolidation area around the July 27 close of $53.62. |
| Secondary support | $48.22 to $48.41 | The 200-day and 50-day moving averages, which both read near $48.2 to $48.4 per StockAnalysis and Barchart. |
| Major support | $46.57 | The 100-day moving average, a deeper level that matters for the medium-term trend view. |
| Pivot resistance | $56.42 to $57.00 | The August 3 intraday high of $56.42, then round-number supply near $57 before the 52-week high. |
| Major resistance | $59.53 | The 52-week high. A high-volume close above this level would mark a new uptrend and negate the 12-month trading range. |
| Moving averages | 5-day $54.94; 20-day $52.77; 50-day $48.40; 100-day $46.57; 200-day $48.22 | Reported by Barchart and StockAnalysis. The current price above the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages is constructive for the trend. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 67.62; 14-day ADX near 31.5 with +DI 35.4 and -DI 15.4 | RSI is elevated and approaching overbought near 70. The ADX above 30 with +DI well above -DI confirms a strengthening uptrend. |
| Volume | About 382,000 shares on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis reported volume of about 382,251 on August 3 against a 20-day average near 431,600, slightly below average on the up day. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.77; 14-day ATR about 1.66 (about 3.0% of price); 14-day historical volatility near 33% | Barchart reported a 14-day average true range of about 1.66. The sub-1.0 beta indicates lower volatility than the market, with a 52-week range of $41.49 to $59.53. |
| Invalidation | Close below $52.77, then $48.22 | A decisive close below $52.77 would weaken the near-term uptrend. A break below the 200-day moving average near $48.22 would suggest the renewed uptrend is no longer intact and require a fundamental reassessment. |
ALRM AI trading strategy
The ALRM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price action with SaaS retention, revenue and margin guidance, EnergyHub and commercial progress, memory and tariff costs, and the August 6, 2026 Q2 report.
Watch for ALRM to hold above the $55 to $56 zone on volume and challenge the $59.53 52-week high while Q2 and full year SaaS revenue, retention, and margin guidance stay constructive.
A close below $52.77 (20-day moving average) reduces near-term trend confidence. A close below $48.22 (200-day moving average) invalidates the uptrend and should trigger a review of subscriber metrics, hardware margins, and forward guidance.
If price pulls back toward the $48 to $50 band near the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, compare the drawdown against retention, EnergyHub growth, buyback execution, and the base and bearish scenario assumptions before treating the level as a buying zone.
Do not treat a lower price as cheap if the market is repricing memory-driven hardware margin pressure, tariff pass-through reductions, or competitive disruption from DIY platforms.
Track Q2 2026 results on August 6, 2026, SaaS and license revenue versus the $185.5 million to $185.7 million guide, revenue retention, hardware gross margin, memory costs, tariff pass-through fees, EnergyHub contribution, and share repurchases.
A headline revenue beat without improving retention or free cash flow would not by itself confirm the investment case, and hardware-specific margin guidance deserves equal weight to SaaS growth.
Investment research summary
Customers, primarily professional security dealers and their end-users, pay Alarm.com for a cloud platform that connects, monitors, and controls security systems, cameras, thermostats, door locks, and energy devices. The value is professional-grade reliability, a single integrated app, and now AI-driven video and operational insights that extend beyond security.
The moat comes from the dealer network of thousands of professional service providers who standardize on Alarm.com, the proprietary cloud infrastructure, the integrated hardware ecosystem, and data advantages from millions of connected devices. It is not impenetrable because Amazon, Google, Ring, and ADT offer competing platforms, and hardware is more easily replicated than software.
The thesis fails if DIY platforms disintermediate the dealer model, memory cost inflation compresses hardware margins for longer than expected, tariff pass-through reductions hit hardware revenue, subscriber growth stalls on housing weakness, a major dealer relationship is lost, or EnergyHub and commercial growth slows below plan.
Founder and CEO Steve Trundle has led Alarm.com since 2000, with deep domain expertise and insider ownership near 5%. Management retired $500 million of convertible notes in January 2026, raised 2026 guidance after a Q1 beat, and authorized a new $150 million buyback while keeping capacity for tuck-in acquisitions.
The connected property and smart home market keeps growing on security awareness, energy grid stress, aging-in-place needs, and commercial adoption of AI video. The market is also maturing, with DIY alternatives, big-tech platform competition, and potential commoditization of basic features, while grid-edge energy management is a structural growth driver for EnergyHub.
At $55.54, the stock trades at about 23x TTM GAAP EPS, about 19.75x forward non-GAAP EPS, and 2.65x TTM revenue. The base three-year scenario near $69 implies about 24% upside if EPS grows around 7% and the multiple holds near 20x, a moderate margin of safety. The bullish scenario near $94 depends on faster EnergyHub and commercial growth plus multiple expansion.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALRM price | $55.54 closing price on August 3, 2026, after hours $54.43 | StockAnalysis quote page | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $2.75 billion market cap; verified as 49.46 million shares multiplied by $55.54 equals $2.747 billion, a 0.11% variance | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $1.038 billion revenue and $128.21 million net income for the trailing twelve months through Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 quarterly results | SaaS and license revenue of $181.5 million, total revenue of $265.2 million, and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of $0.65 | Alarm.com Q1 2026 earnings call transcript, May 7, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | About $499.35 million total cash and $566.73 million total debt, a net cash position of about -$67 million | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | About $168.83 million trailing twelve month free cash flow, from $179.91 million operating cash flow minus $11.08 million capex | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples calculation | PE 23.05x, PB 3.19x, PS 2.65x, P/FCF 16.29x, EV/EBITDA 16.68x at $55.54 | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range and beta | $41.49 to $59.53, beta 0.77 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 50-day moving average $48.40, 200-day moving average $48.22, 14-day RSI 67.62 | StockAnalysis and Barchart technical analysis, matching readings | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus with an average 12-month price target of $60.00 and a range of $40 to $85 across 6 analysts; Argus raised its target to $58 in July 2026 | StockAnalysis forecast page and Yahoo Finance analyst reports | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Full year SaaS and license revenue of $749.5 to $750.5 million, total revenue of $1.0595 to $1.0705 billion, and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of $2.81 to $2.82 | Alarm.com Q1 2026 earnings call transcript, May 7, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Three-scenario target prices | Bullish $93.70 (10% growth, 25x PE), Base $69.00 (7% growth, 20x PE), Bearish $46.10 (3% growth, 15x PE) from non-GAAP EPS midpoint of $2.815 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 4, 2026 |
This ALRM AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on data available as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if Q2 and full year results, retention, hardware margins, competition, housing conditions, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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