Alumis Inc. research snapshot
ALMS AI stock analysis reads Alumis Inc. as a high-risk, high-potential late-stage biopharmaceutical company built around envudeucitinib, a next-generation oral TYK2 inhibitor for autoimmune diseases. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 4, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified quote used here was $25.55 on August 3, 2026, down about 9.5% from the July 31 close of $28.25, with a market capitalization of about $3.26 billion. Positive Phase 3 ONWARD1/2 psoriasis data were presented in March 2026, an NDA for psoriasis is planned for the fourth quarter, and an SLE Phase 2b readout is expected in the third quarter. The stock still trades at roughly 390x to 400x trailing sales with negative earnings, so almost all value depends on unapproved products. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$25.55
Market cap
$3.26 billion
AI score
46 / 100
Rating
Late-stage biotech with validated Phase 3 psoriasis data, a large cash position, and binary near-term catalysts in SLE and the psoriasis NDA
Trend status
Strong uptrend from the $3.76 52-week low, pulled back about 19% from the July 8 high near $31.35, now testing the 50-day moving average near $25
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Alumis is a late-stage biotech built around envudeucitinib, a next-generation oral TYK2 inhibitor. Phase 3 ONWARD1/2 data in moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis were positive, with PASI 90 responses of 68.0% and 62.1% and PASI 100 responses of 41.0% and 39.5% at week 24. Revenue is tiny at $8.4M TTM and TTM net income is negative at about $237.4M. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat depends on clinical differentiation of envudeucitinib versus BMS Sotyktu and other oral TYK2 inhibitors. The mechanism is validated, but several companies are competing in oral psoriasis, so durability is unproven until commercial data arrive. | Low |
| Management | Experienced biotech leadership under President and CEO Martin Babler. Management holds cash runway into the fourth quarter of 2027 and chose to explore strategic alternatives for lonigutamab to focus on the TYK2 franchise. Capital allocation decisions appear disciplined. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Cash burn is heavy. Q1 2026 net loss was $93.1M on $81.5M of R&D spending, and TTM free cash flow was about negative $377M. Cash, equivalents, and marketable securities were $569.5M at March 31, 2026, funding operations into the fourth quarter of 2027. | Medium |
| Valuation | At the cutoff price the stock traded at roughly 390x to 400x trailing sales with a negative P/E. Price-to-book was about 6.34x. The valuation fully prices in successful clinical development and significant commercial potential. | Low |
| Technical trend | ALMS is in a strong uptrend, up about 527% over 52 weeks, but it pulled back roughly 19% from the July 8 high near $31.35 and is now testing the 50-day moving average near $25. Momentum has cooled from overbought. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are a disappointing SLE Phase 2b readout, regulatory delays on the psoriasis NDA, safety signals, cash burn that requires dilution from the mixed securities shelf, rising competition in oral psoriasis, and binary event risk around data and earnings. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Medium confidence for financial data, analyst targets, and pipeline milestones. Lower confidence for clinical success probabilities, regulatory timelines, and commercial revenue projections. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. ALMS offers real upside if the SLE data and the psoriasis NDA go well, but the stock already trades at a rich valuation with binary event risk around the August earnings report and the third quarter SLE readout. | Low |
ALMS AI stock forecast
The ALMS AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $25.55 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires a positive SLE Phase 2b readout and a clean path to the psoriasis NDA. The base case assumes clinical progress with typical biotech volatility. The bearish case assumes clinical setbacks, timeline slippage, or dilutive financing.
$45 to $60
More likely if the LUMUS Phase 2b SLE topline data due in the third quarter of 2026 are positive, the fourth quarter NDA submission for plaque psoriasis stays on track, envudeucitinib shows clear differentiation versus Sotyktu and other oral rivals, and management avoids near-term dilutive financing.
$28 to $40
More likely if clinical milestones proceed on schedule, investors anchor on the analyst consensus target near $40, and the stock trades with normal biotech volatility around the August 12 to 13 earnings report, data readouts, and financing news.
$15 to $25
More likely if the SLE Phase 2b data disappoint or slip into 2027, the psoriasis NDA timeline slips, valuation concerns like the H.C. Wainwright $25 target dominate sentiment, or equity issuance from the mixed securities shelf dilutes shareholders.
ALMS AI technical analysis
ALMS AI technical analysis starts from the $25.55 August 3, 2026 intraday quote used for this page. The stock is in a strong uptrend but has pulled back about 19% from the July 8 intraday high of $31.35 and is testing the 50-day moving average near $25. Biotech stocks often show elevated volatility around clinical data readouts and earnings. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $25.55 | Latest verified quote as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, down about 9.5% from the July 31 close of $28.25. The stock is up roughly 527% from the 52-week low. |
| Near support | $25.04 | The 50-day moving average. The August 3 pullback brought the stock right to this level, so a daily close below it would be the first warning sign for the recent trend. |
| Secondary support | $23.00 to $24.50 | The June consolidation zone where ALMS spent most of late June. Holding this area would keep the broader uptrend intact. |
| Key support | $20.08 | The 200-day moving average. A break below this level with sustained selling would signal a deeper trend change. |
| Near resistance | $27.70 to $28.25 | The top of the recent range and the July 31 close. A daily close back above this zone would signal that the pullback is stabilizing. |
| Secondary resistance | $30.00 to $31.35 | The July high area and the 52-week high of $31.35 set on July 8, 2026. Breaking above this with volume would point toward a retest of all-time highs. |
| 50-day moving average | $25.04 | The stock is sitting right on this level after the August 3 selloff. A reclaim above it with rising volume would be a positive sign. |
| 200-day moving average | $20.08 | Well below the current price, reflecting the strength of the multi-month uptrend. It becomes an important support if the pullback deepens. |
| Momentum | RSI 45.6, neutral | Relative strength has cooled from the overbought zone reached during the July rally. The neutral reading leaves room for either direction. |
| Volume | Average daily volume near 1.28 million | Volume was elevated during the July breakout and again on the August 3 selloff. Watch for volume confirmation on any move back above $28. |
| Volatility | Beta about -0.67 to -0.71 | ALMS shows low and even inverse correlation with broad markets. Biotech-specific catalysts like the Q3 SLE readout drive price action more than macro factors. |
| Invalidation | Daily close below $25.04, then $20.08 | A close below the 50-day moving average near $25 weakens the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day moving average near $20 would challenge the longer-term uptrend. |
ALMS AI trading strategy
The ALMS AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. ALMS is a late-stage biotech where clinical catalysts, the August 12 to 13 earnings report, the Q3 SLE data readout, and the planned psoriasis NDA drive price action more than traditional valuation metrics.
Look for ALMS to reclaim and hold the 50-day moving average near $25 and then close back above the $27.70 to $28.25 zone on rising volume before adding to positions.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $25 is the first warning, and a break below $20 would invalidate the trend setup. Reduce position size if volume fades during the pullback.
The Q3 2026 SLE Phase 2b topline readout and the August 12 to 13 earnings report are the next binary catalysts. If the stock stabilizes near the $24 to $25 support zone before a catalyst, size any catalyst position with a defined maximum loss.
Biotech stocks can gap sharply on clinical data releases and earnings. Position size should account for binary event risk, and stops should be placed outside the expected intraday noise.
Track the timing of the SLE LUMUS topline data, the fourth quarter NDA filing for psoriasis, cash burn and quarterly results, share count changes from the mixed securities shelf, analyst target revisions, and competitive news from other oral TYK2 developers.
Lower the rating if cash burn accelerates without clear milestones, the SLE readout is delayed, safety signals emerge in the TYK2 class, or the shelf offering causes meaningful dilution.
Investment research summary
Alumis develops next-generation targeted therapies for immune-mediated diseases, anchored by envudeucitinib, an oral TYK2 inhibitor in late-stage development for moderate-to-severe plaque psoriasis and systemic lupus erythematosus.
The only realistic moat candidate is clinical differentiation. The TYK2 mechanism is validated by BMS Sotyktu, but several companies compete in oral psoriasis, so envudeucitinib must show superior efficacy, safety, or convenience to build durable market share.
The thesis fails if the SLE Phase 2b readout disappoints, the psoriasis NDA slips or draws regulatory delays, safety signals emerge, cash runs low without a clear path to approval, or dilution from the mixed securities shelf reprices the stock.
Leadership has deep biotech experience. The team kept cash runway into the fourth quarter of 2027 and made the disciplined call to explore strategic alternatives for lonigutamab so resources stay focused on the TYK2 franchise.
Autoimmune disease is a large and growing market, and oral TYK2 inhibitors are gaining share against injectable therapies. The class supports blockbuster potential if approvals and reimbursement work out.
At roughly 390x to 400x trailing sales and negative earnings, almost all forward value depends on unapproved products. The current price leaves little room for setbacks, so the margin of safety is thin.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALMS price | $25.55 quote on August 3, 2026, down about 9.5% from the July 31 close of $28.25 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.26 billion, verified as $25.56 x approximately 127.49 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 127.49 million | StockAnalysis.com Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $8.40 million, down 51.7% from the fiscal 2025 level of $24.05 million | StockAnalysis.com Financials | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$237.42 million | StockAnalysis.com Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Loss per share (TTM) | -$2.31 | StockAnalysis.com Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | $522.94 million, with the company reporting $569.5 million of cash, equivalents, and marketable securities at March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com Balance Sheet and Alumis Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $35.66 million | StockAnalysis.com Balance Sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $2.83 billion | StockAnalysis.com Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $3.76 to $31.35 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Price/Sales (TTM) | About 388x computed, 400.44x reported by StockAnalysis.com at the cutoff price, and 345.38x per Yahoo Finance as of July 31, 2026 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification, StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Price/Book (MRQ) | 6.34x | StockAnalysis.com Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Moving averages and RSI | 50-day MA $25.04, 200-day MA $20.08, RSI 45.6 | StockAnalysis.com Statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus target | Average $40.11, median $39, high $55, low $25; consensus Strong Buy across 10 analysts; H.C. Wainwright reiterated Hold at $25 on August 3, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com Forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $1.74M, R&D expense $81.5M, net loss $93.1M, cash of $569.5M at March 31, 2026; runway into the fourth quarter of 2027 | Alumis Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
This ALMS AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. Alumis Inc. is a pre-commercial biopharmaceutical company with negative trailing earnings, no approved products, and the stock carries elevated risk from clinical, regulatory, financing, and competitive events.
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