Assured Guaranty Ltd. research snapshot
AGO AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Assured Guaranty Ltd. as a durable but niche financial guaranty insurer that reported record adjusted book value per share of $188.74 at the end of Q1 2026, yet still trades at a wide discount to book value. The stock traded at $84.09 on August 3, 2026 at 1:29 PM EDT, up 1.36 or 1.65% from the $82.72 prior close, within a session range reported near $83.37 to $84.54 after opening at $83.78, carrying a market capitalization near $3.72 billion, which matches the $84.09 price times 44.18 million shares outstanding. Q1 2026 adjusted operating income was $115 million or $2.50 per share, beating the $1.63 consensus, on $261 million of revenue versus the $208.63 million consensus, with $73 million of new business PVP nearly double the $39 million of a year earlier, helped by a $21 million carried interest benefit and a $33 million U.K. Pillar Two tax benefit. Management slowed share repurchases to a $30 million target over the next three months to fund growth in financial guaranty and the new annuity reinsurance business, while S&P affirmed the AA financial strength ratings with a stable outlook on July 21, 2026. The stock sits above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $83.98, $79.79, $80.54, and $83.61, with 14-day RSI near 56 and 14-day ADX near 24.6. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$84.09 at the August 3, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT reading, up 1.36 or 1.65% from the $82.72 prior close, after opening at $83.78 within a day range of $83.37 to $84.54
Market cap
$3.72 billion
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Durable niche bond insurer with record adjusted book value, a persistent P/B discount, and a growth pivot into annuity reinsurance
Trend status
Recovering: price above the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages after bouncing from 52-week lows
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AGO provides credit protection for municipal bonds and structured finance transactions, converting underwriting discipline, credit analysis, and premium collection into shareholder value, with a growing asset management segment and a new annuity reinsurance business. Q1 2026 new business PVP of $73 million nearly doubled year over year. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from regulatory licenses, municipal bond distribution relationships, underwriting data, claims-paying history, and the AA financial strength rating affirmed by S&P on July 21, 2026. Competition from other monolines, self-insurance, and rating agency methodology changes limit its pricing power. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Dominic Frederico has led the company through multiple credit cycles with disciplined capital allocation, having repurchased 81% of shares outstanding at the start of the program and returned $6 billion to shareholders, while raising the quarterly dividend to $0.38. The pivot toward annuity reinsurance and a slower buyback pace mark a strategic change that needs execution proof. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income to common was $503 million with diluted EPS of $10.26, and Q1 2026 adjusted operating income reached $115 million or $2.50 per share against a $1.63 consensus, on revenue of $261 million versus $208.63 million, with record adjusted book value per share of $188.74 and adjusted operating shareholders equity per share of $128.61 at the end of the quarter. | High |
| Valuation | At $84.09, AGO trades near 9.69x TTM earnings, 12.82x forward earnings, 0.67x book value based on the $124.35 statistics-page book value per share, and a 1.81% dividend yield. The wide P/B discount signals market concern about book value quality or future credit losses. | High |
| Technical trend | AGO traded at $84.09 on August 3, 2026 at 1:29 PM EDT, up 1.65%, above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $83.98, $79.79, $80.54, and $83.61, with 14-day RSI near 56 on both StockAnalysis.com and Barchart and 14-day ADX near 24.6, within a 52-week range of $72.76 to $92.40. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Brightline and PREPA economic loss development of $44 million in Q1 2026, municipal credit deterioration, structured finance losses, adverse reserve development, a low-for-long interest rate environment, competitive pricing pressure, and regulatory changes affecting the financial guaranty model. | Medium |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive research and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, and the earnings call transcript. Lower for exact stock outcomes because credit losses are binary events that can change the earnings picture rapidly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. AGO earns reliable premiums and trades at a book-value discount, but whether that discount is a margin of safety or an accurate assessment of credit risk depends on loss development, buyback pace, and the annuity reinsurance ramp. | Medium-low |
AGO AI stock forecast
The AGO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $84.09 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $7.26. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $68, a base area near $95, and a bullish area near $120 before dividends, using adjusted EPS of roughly $6, $7.5, and $9.5 with exit multiples of 9x, 11x, and 13x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$110 to $130
More likely if credit conditions stay benign, Brightline and PREPA losses stay contained, PVP growth continues near the Q1 2026 pace, the annuity reinsurance business scales, buybacks resume, and the market re-rates AGO toward 0.85x adjusted book value with adjusted EPS recovering toward $9.50.
$88 to $102
More likely if adjusted EPS holds near the $7.26 consensus and grows at a low single-digit rate, buybacks return after the $30 million three-month pause, the dividend keeps growing, and investors keep the stock near a 10x to 11x forward multiple and a 0.7x P/B.
$62 to $74
More likely if municipal credit stress, Brightline or PREPA losses, or adverse reserve development compress earnings, the buyback pause extends, or the market compresses the multiple toward 9x on a lower EPS base, pulling price toward the 52-week low of $72.76 or below.
AGO AI technical analysis
AGO AI technical analysis turned constructive as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock traded at $84.09 at 1:29 PM EDT on August 3, up 1.65% from the $82.72 prior close, above its 20, 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages of roughly $83.98, $79.79, $80.54, and $83.61, with 14-day RSI near 56 and 14-day ADX near 24.6. Barchart Opinion reads the overall average near 40% buy with a Trend Seeker buy signal, while the stock still sits about 9% below its 52-week high of $92.40 and about 16% above its 52-week low of $72.76.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $84.09 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT reading, up 1.36 or 1.65% from the $82.72 prior close within a session range near $83.37 to $84.54 after opening at $83.78; the reported $3.72 billion market cap matches the price times 44.18 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $84.16 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $84.16 on August 3, 2026, essentially at the current price, so short-term momentum is balanced around the last close. |
| 20-day moving average | $83.98 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $83.98 on August 3, 2026, just below the price, acting as the first short-term support and the line that turned the recent move from bearish to recovering. |
| Near support | $81.82 to $80.93 | Barchart listed the first and second support levels near $81.82 and $80.93 on August 3, 2026, the first meaningful downside zone to monitor. |
| Deeper support | $79.56 to $79.79 | Barchart placed the third support near $79.56, essentially matching the 50-day moving average near $79.79, a key confluence zone for the recovery trend. |
| Near resistance | $84.08 to $85.45 | Barchart listed the first and second resistance points near $84.08 and $85.45 on August 3, 2026, the zone the stock must clear to extend the recovery. |
| Upper resistance | $86.34 | Barchart placed the third resistance near $86.34, and a close above it would open the path toward the 52-week high of $92.40. |
| 50-day moving average | $79.79 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average near $79.79 on August 3, 2026, with StockAnalysis.com near $79.80, confirming the medium-term recovery. |
| 200-day moving average | $83.61 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day moving average near $83.61 on August 3, 2026, and the price reclaiming it is the main long-term trend signal. |
| 100-day moving average | $80.54 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average near $80.54 on August 3, 2026, below the price and consistent with a recovering medium-term trend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 56, ADX near 24.6 | 14-day RSI was near 56.01 on StockAnalysis.com and 55.99 on Barchart, neutral to slightly positive, with 14-day ADX near 24.63 signaling a developing but not yet strong trend. |
| Volume | About 300K average daily shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 299,155 shares and Barchart near 303,016, with 50-day average near 357,369, enough liquidity for a small-cap stock. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.74, 14-day historical vol near 16.7% | StockAnalysis.com listed a five-year beta of 0.74, and Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 16.68%, so insurance-specific credit events can still create sharp moves independent of the market. |
| Invalidation | Close below $81.82, then $79.56 | A daily close below the first support near $81.82 would weaken the recovery, and a close below the $79.56 to $79.79 zone, which matches the third support and the 50-day moving average, would turn the trend bearish. |
AGO AI trading strategy
The AGO AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a specialty financial guaranty insurer with record adjusted book value, a persistent book-value discount, and a growth pivot into annuity reinsurance. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch for AGO to hold above its 20-day moving average near $83.98 and to build volume on a move above the $85.45 to $86.34 resistance zone, with the 200-day trend line near $83.61 holding as the base.
A daily close below the first support near $81.82 or a failed attempt at the $86.34 resistance should trigger a stop and review. Monitor the August 6, 2026 Q2 report and quarterly credit loss disclosures.
If AGO pulls back toward the $79.56 to $80.93 support zone that matches the 50-day moving average without any new credit loss event, compare the P/B discount with adjusted book value growth and the pace of buybacks.
Do not average down without a defined loss limit because bond insurers can reprice quickly after a credit event, a rating action, or a Brightline or PREPA development.
Track new business PVP, adjusted operating income per share, GAAP book value per share of about $124 and adjusted book value per share of $188.74, economic loss development, net earned premiums, buyback activity against the $30 million near-term target, holding company liquidity, and the annuity reinsurance ramp.
Reduce confidence if economic loss development rises materially, adjusted book value stagnates, buybacks stay paused longer than planned, or the P/B discount widens below 0.6x.
Investment research summary
AGO insures municipal bonds and structured finance instruments against default, earning premiums for taking credit risk. Its value comes from underwriting accuracy, claims management, investment returns on float, asset management fees, and a new annuity reinsurance business, plus capital returns to shareholders.
The moat is strongest in regulatory licenses, long-standing municipal distribution relationships, claims-paying history, underwriting data, and the AA financial strength rating affirmed by S&P on July 21, 2026. It narrows when competition from other monolines, self-insurance, or rating agency methodology changes reduce demand.
The thesis fails if AGO experiences a cluster of municipal or structured finance defaults that exhaust claims reserves, if the book-value discount reflects hidden credit problems, if Brightline or PREPA losses develop beyond current expectations, or if low interest rates permanently compress investment income while the annuity reinsurance ramp consumes capital without returns.
Frederico has demonstrated consistent capital allocation discipline across cycles, having bought back 81% of the shares outstanding at the start of the program, returned $6 billion, and raised the quarterly dividend to $0.38. His long tenure builds credibility but creates key-person risk, and the slower buyback pace marks a strategic shift that needs execution proof.
Municipal finance benefits from infrastructure needs and tax-exempt demand, and management expects a strong 2026 for municipal issuance, but state and local credit quality faces pressure from pension liabilities and economic sensitivity. Structured finance is cyclical, and annuity reinsurance is a new diversification effort in the U.S. MYGA and U.K. PRT markets.
AGO trades at about 0.67x book value based on the $124.35 statistics-page book value per share, or about 0.45x the $188.74 adjusted book value per share, which can represent either a wide margin of safety or a market signal of overstated book value. The answer depends on credit loss experience, reserve adequacy, buyback pace, and the annuity reinsurance results.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AGO price | $84.09 at the August 3, 2026, 1:29 PM EDT reading, up 1.36 or 1.65% from the $82.72 prior close, within a session range near $83.37 to $84.54, after opening at $83.78 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.72 billion, reported by StockAnalysis.com and consistent with the August 3 price near $84.09 times 44.18 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 44.18 million shares outstanding, down 10.10% year over year, with a 41.53 million float, insiders holding 5.94% and institutions holding 93.34% | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted operating income | $115 million or $2.50 per share, beating the $1.63 consensus, including a $21 million after-tax carried interest benefit and a $33 million U.K. Pillar Two tax benefit, versus $162 million or $3.18 per share in Q1 2025 which included an $82 million LBIE litigation benefit | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings release and call | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $261 million, versus the $208.63 million consensus, with $90 million of scheduled net earned premiums and credit derivative revenue versus $89 million a year earlier | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings release via TheFly | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 new business production | $73 million of PVP, nearly double the $39 million in Q1 2025, with U.S. Public Finance up 92% to $48 million, non-U.S. Public Finance at $8 million, and global structured finance at $17 million, on $4 billion of insured par and a 53% share of insured municipal par | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Record per-share values | Adjusted operating shareholders equity per share of $128.61 and adjusted book value per share of $188.74 at March 31, 2026, described by management as records | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Economic loss development | $44 million in Q1 2026, primarily attributable to Brightline and PREPA, with the Brightline losses within the unearned premium reserve and not yet recognized in adjusted operating income | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Capital returns | Q1 2026 share repurchases of 882,000 shares for $75 million at an average price of $85.58, plus $18 million of dividends; 81% of shares outstanding at the start of the program repurchased with $6 billion returned, and the next three-month repurchase target reduced to $30 million to fund financial guaranty and annuity reinsurance growth | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | FY2025 net income to common of $503 million with diluted EPS of $10.26, versus $376 million and $6.87 in FY2024, with record book value per share and operating income per share and a 12% dividend increase to $0.38 per quarter | StockAnalysis.com income statement and Assured Guaranty Q4 2025 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $312 million of cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026 on the StockAnalysis.com balance sheet, and $333 million of cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash per SEC EDGAR XBRL from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Total debt | $1,705 million as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL long-term debt of $1,705 million from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 4, 2026 |
| Total investments and assets | Total investments of $8,906 million (debt securities $7,770 million plus other investments $1,136 million), cash and equivalents of $312 million, and total assets of $12,635 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Shareholders equity and book value | Common shareholders equity of $5,542 million, shareholders equity including minority interest of $5,564 million, book value per share of $124.35 on the statistics page and about $117 on the balance sheet page, with adjusted book value per share of $188.74 per management | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet, Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Alternative investments | Fair value of $965 million at March 31, 2026 with an inception-to-date annualized IRR of about 12%, versus an average yield of 4.2% over the past three years in the fixed maturity portfolio, generating $35 million of pre-tax adjusted operating income in Q1 2026 versus $53 million a year earlier | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Holding company liquidity | Approximately $153 million of holding company liquidity as of the Q1 2026 call, of which $56 million was at AGL | Assured Guaranty Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM and FY2025 revenue | TTM revenue of $1,026 million and FY2025 revenue of $1,110 million on the standardized income statement, while the overview and forecast pages cite core revenue near $832 million for FY2025 up 0.24% from $830 million, reflecting different revenue treatments for an insurer | StockAnalysis.com income statement and forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | TTM PE of 9.69x, forward PE of 12.82x, PS of 4.49x, P/B of 0.67x, P/TBV of 0.66x, EV/EBITDA of 9.96x, and EV/Earnings of 12.28x | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.52 annual dividend with a 1.81% yield, quarterly dividend of $0.38 raised 12% from $0.34, 14 years of dividend growth, ex-dividend date May 15, 2026, and a payout ratio near 17% | StockAnalysis.com dividend data | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.93 million shares short, 4.37% of shares outstanding and 4.64% of float, with 4.88 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average 12-month target of $91.67, low $80 and high $101 across 3 analysts, with KBW reiterating Buy at $101 on July 16, 2026, UBS upgrading to Buy at $94 on May 18, 2026, and Roth MKM downgrading to Neutral at $80 on May 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $883.65 million up 6.21% and FY2026 adjusted EPS estimate of $7.26, down 20% from the $9.08 FY2025 adjusted EPS, reflecting the absence of Q1 2025 litigation benefits, with FY2027 revenue of $849.62 million and EPS of $7.16 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Credit rating | S&P affirmed the AA financial strength ratings on July 21, 2026 with a stable outlook | S&P Global Ratings via Business Wire | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $72.76 to $92.40, up 0.35% over the trailing 52 weeks, with beta of 0.74 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average near $83.98, 50-day near $79.79, 100-day near $80.54, 200-day near $83.61, 14-day RSI near 56.01 on StockAnalysis.com and 55.99 on Barchart, 14-day ADX near 24.63, 14-day historical volatility near 16.68%, support near $81.82, $80.93, and $79.56, and resistance near $84.08, $85.45, and $86.34 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 4, 2026 |
This AGO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if AGO fundamentals, credit losses, book value adjustments, interest rates, buyback pace, competition, regulation, or market valuation change.
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