Grupo Aeromexico SAB de CV research snapshot
AERO AI stock analysis currently reads Grupo Aeromexico as the leading Mexican airline, but the earnings picture weakened through mid-2026. At the August 3, 2026 close of $16.03 and about 145.9 million ADR shares outstanding, the verified market capitalization was about $2.34 billion. TTM revenue through June 2026 was about $5.68 billion, while TTM net income fell to about $215 million after the June 2026 quarter posted a net loss of about $58 million. The stock trades near 10.5x TTM earnings, which is higher than the roughly 7x multiple of early 2026, and it is down about 30% year to date. This AERO AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a precise price prediction, and should be used as an informational research tool, not investment advice.
Current price
$16.03 reference close on August 3, 2026
Market cap
About $2.34 billion verified equity value
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Mexico-based airline under earnings pressure from softer demand, a net loss in the June 2026 quarter, and fuel and FX exposure, trading near the lower half of its 52-week range
Trend status
Downtrend: down about 30% year to date, with TTM earnings roughly halved and July passenger traffic down 6.1%, within a $12.26 to $23.05 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Aeromexico operates passenger and cargo air services from its Mexico City hub. The business benefits from strong brand recognition in Mexico, Mexico-US traffic demand, and corporate travel, but airlines are capital-intensive, cyclical, and exposed to fuel, FX, and competition. | Medium |
| Moat | Aeromexico benefits from its Mexico City hub location, brand recognition, slot and route rights, SkyTeam alliance membership, and a loyal frequent-flyer base. The moat is real but narrow compared to US network carriers because the Mexican market is smaller and more price-competitive. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Andres Conesa Labastida has led Aeromexico through the pandemic, Chapter 11 restructuring, and re-listing on the NYSE. Investors should evaluate management on how it responds to the weaker June 2026 quarter, cost control, fleet modernization, debt management, route profitability, and margins. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue was about $5.68 billion through June 2026 with TTM net income around $215 million. The June 2026 quarter posted a net loss of about $58 million, and TTM EPS fell to about $1.47, roughly half the level used in mid-2026, so the recent earnings trend is clearly down. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $16.03, AERO trades near 10.5x TTM EPS. That multiple is not as low as it looked in mid-2026 because the earnings base shrank, and the low absolute price still reflects airline cyclicality, FX risk, and Mexican market competition rather than a clear margin of safety. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a downtrend, down about 30% year to date and about 13% over the past month, trading near the lower half of its $12.26 to $23.05 52-week range. With average volume near 262,000 shares, technical signals can be less reliable than for larger, more liquid airline stocks. | Low-medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include fuel price volatility, MXN/USD exchange rate moves, softer Mexico-US travel demand, competition from Volaris and Viva Aerobus, economic recession, airline safety incidents, post-Chapter 11 leverage, and ADR liquidity. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high for reported financial data and math. Medium for forward-looking judgments because airline outcomes depend on unpredictable fuel, FX, and demand factors. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low-medium. AERO is not expensive in absolute terms, but the June 2026 loss and softer July traffic mean the earnings base is still settling. A margin of safety requires a price that allows for a continued fuel spike, FX move, or demand weakness. | Low-medium |
AERO AI stock forecast
The AERO AI stock forecast uses the August 3, 2026 close of $16.03, TTM EPS of $1.47, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The financial_rigor.py model produced a bearish area near $6, a base area near $17, and a bullish area near $27 before future buybacks, dilution, dividends, or changes in the capital structure. These are scenario ranges based on EPS growth and PE assumptions, not promises.
$25 to $28
More likely if Mexico-US travel demand recovers from the recent soft patch, fuel costs remain manageable, MXN/USD is stable or favorable, Aeromexico returns to roughly 15% annual EPS growth from the lower 2026 base, and investors re-rate the stock toward a 12x PE.
$15 to $18
More likely if EPS grows around 8% annually from moderate demand and cost control, the competitive environment does not intensify materially, and AERO trades near its current 9x to 10x PE multiple.
$5 to $7
More likely if demand keeps softening, fuel costs spike, MXN depreciates sharply against USD, competitive pressure from Volaris and Viva Aerobus intensifies, the company posts more losing quarters, or the market values AERO at a distressed airline multiple near 5x EPS.
AERO AI technical analysis
AERO AI technical analysis is bearish-to-neutral as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The $16.03 reference close sits in the lower half of the 52-week range of $12.26 to $23.05, the stock is down about 30% year to date and about 13% over the past month, and a beta of 2.04 indicates high sensitivity to market moves. Average daily volume near 262,000 shares means technical breakouts should be confirmed with volume before treating them as meaningful signals.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $16.03 | Closing reference on August 3, 2026, used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Near support | $15.50 | The August 3, 2026 intraday low is the first test area if AERO pulls back. |
| Structural support | $12.26 | The 52-week low represents the deepest visible support floor from the current trading range. |
| Near resistance | $17.50 to $18.00 | The first upside test area above the current price based on recent price action and round-number resistance. |
| Upper resistance | $23.05 | The 52-week high is the visible ceiling. A breakout above this level with volume would be a constructive technical signal. |
| Moving averages | Use live 50-day and 200-day averages | No static moving-average value is provided because it changes daily. AERO has a beta of 2.04, so moving averages can shift quickly. |
| Momentum | Use live RSI with attention to fuel and FX news | Daily RSI can be less reliable for lower-volume ADRs. The stock is down about 30% year to date, so focus on longer timeframes and news context. |
| Volume | Average near 262,000 shares | AERO is a less liquid ADR. Breakouts on above-average volume are more credible than low-volume moves. |
| Volatility | Beta 2.04, 52-week range $12.26 to $23.05 | High beta means AERO can move more than the broad market. Set wider risk limits than for less volatile stocks. |
| Invalidation | Close below $12.26 or sustained volume decline | A new 52-week low would invalidate the current range framework. Low volume on breakouts also reduces signal quality. |
AERO AI trading strategy
The AERO AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price levels with airline demand, fuel costs, FX rates, competitive dynamics, and Aeromexico-specific developments.
The primary trend is down, so wait for AERO to hold near the $15.50 support and reclaim the $17.50 to $18.00 resistance with above-average volume before treating the trend as turned, and only if demand data, fuel costs, and MXN/USD stabilize.
A breakdown below $15.50 should reduce confidence, especially if July passenger traffic keeps falling, fuel costs rise, MXN weakens, or competitive pressure from Volaris or Viva Aerobus increases.
If AERO pulls back toward $12.26 to $14.00 without a fundamental break in the long-term travel demand story, compare the lower price with the current 10.5x TTM PE and the analyst average target near $23, but only if fuel, FX, and competitive conditions remain stable.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss limit. Airline stocks can stay cheap for longer than fundamentals justify if fuel, FX, or demand conditions deteriorate.
Track quarterly revenue, unit revenue, load factor, fuel cost per gallon, MXN/USD exchange rate, monthly passenger counts, capacity plans, debt levels, cash position, competitor capacity additions, and US-Mexico travel data.
Reduce position confidence if Aeromexico reports another losing quarter, declining margins, rising leverage, falling load factor, or market share loss to discount competitors, or if macro conditions point to a Mexican or US economic slowdown.
Investment research summary
Aeromexico transports passengers and cargo between Mexico and destinations worldwide, with its strongest franchise in Mexico-US cross-border travel and a dominant position at the Mexico City International Airport hub.
The moat comes from the Mexico City hub, long-established brand, slot and route rights at constrained airports, SkyTeam alliance integration, and a loyal customer base. It is narrow and dependent on maintaining cost competitiveness against Volaris and Viva Aerobus.
The thesis fails if demand keeps softening (July passenger traffic was already down 6.1% year over year), fuel costs spike, the Mexican peso depreciates sharply, discount carriers take market share, the company posts more losing quarters, or another Black Swan event disrupts aviation.
Andres Conesa Labastida has been CEO since 2005, leading Aeromexico through the pandemic, Chapter 11 restructuring, and NYSE relisting. The key test now is whether management can reverse the June 2026 loss, sustain margins, manage debt, and compete effectively in a softer demand environment.
Airlines benefit from long-term travel demand growth, particularly in the Mexico-US corridor, but face structural challenges from fuel price volatility, labor costs, aircraft delivery delays, environmental regulation, and competition from low-cost carriers.
At about 10.5x TTM EPS, AERO is not as cheap as it looked in mid-2026 because the earnings base shrank after the June 2026 loss. A margin of safety would require the price to discount a continued earnings decline or a fuel/FX/demand shock.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $16.03 close on August 3, 2026 | Google Finance AERO overview | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.34B, verified as $16.03 x 145.9M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 145.9 million ADR shares | Google Finance AERO | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $5.68B (sum of last 4 quarters) | Google Finance AERO income statement, cross-verified with TradingView | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | Approximately $215M (sum of last 4 quarters) | Google Finance AERO income statement, cross-verified with TradingView | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $1.47, cross-checked at $215M / 145.9M shares | TradingView AERO key statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | Approximately 10.4x to 10.9x, verified by financial_rigor.py | TradingView AERO, cross-verified | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $12.26 to $23.05 | Google Finance AERO | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical profile | Beta 2.04, average volume 262K shares, down 30% YTD | TradingView AERO | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst targets | Average $23.25, range $20.00 to $26.50 from recent analysts | Google Finance AERO analyst ratings | August 4, 2026 |
| Latest quarter | Q2 2026 (Jun): revenue $1.48B, net loss about $58M | Google Finance AERO income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| July traffic | 2.16M passengers, down 6.1% year over year | Stock Titan via Google Finance news | August 4, 2026 |
| CEO | Andres Conesa Labastida (CEO since 2005) | TradingView AERO | August 4, 2026 |
This AERO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if fuel prices, exchange rates, travel demand, competition, airline safety events, economic conditions, or market sentiment changes.
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