AerCap Holdings N.V. research snapshot
AER AI stock analysis currently views AerCap as the largest global aircraft lessor, combining a hard-to-replicate fleet, airline relationships, order-book scale, and active capital returns. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the reference price was $150.90 (July 31, 2026 close) and verified market capitalization was about $23.30 billion using 154.43 million shares outstanding. The setup is constructive after Q2 2026 results beat consensus and management raised full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $16.80, but it is not a certain stock price prediction: airline credit, aircraft values, interest rates, debt funding, residual values, and geopolitical insurance recoveries can materially change the outcome. This page is for informational use only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$150.90 reference price
Market cap
$23.30 billion verified
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality aircraft lessor with cyclical airline and leverage risk
Trend status
Constructive near the 52-week high after a strong Q2 2026 report, with raised guidance, buybacks, and dividend support
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AerCap earns lease rent, maintenance rent, asset-sale gains, and related income from a global commercial-aircraft portfolio. Airlines pay for fleet access without owning every aircraft, which can make the product essential but still cyclical. | High |
| Moat | Scale, aircraft procurement, financing access, airline relationships, remarketing capability, technical expertise, and a large global fleet create the moat. The moat is operational and capital intensive rather than a consumer brand or network effect. | High |
| Management | Management beat Q2 2026 estimates, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $16.80, repurchased 4.9 million shares for $691 million in the quarter, and kept a $0.40 quarterly dividend. Investors should test that capital returns remain sensible after funding commitments and through a weaker airline cycle. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue and other income was $8.517 billion and net income attributable to AerCap was $3.751 billion. Q2 2026 total revenues and other income increased to $2.167 billion and net income was $726 million, while first-half 2026 net income reached $1.544 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At the reference price, the tool-verified trailing PE was about 7.40x, forward PE about 8.86x, and price to book about 1.27x. Trailing earnings include material gains on sale and Ukraine-related recoveries, so the forward multiple deserves more weight. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The reference price sits just below the $156.33 52-week high and above the 50-day ($144.84) and 200-day ($140.94) moving averages. That is constructive, but nearby resistance means breakouts need volume and earnings confirmation. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include airline defaults, recession, oil-price shocks, higher funding costs, residual-value pressure, delivery delays, heavy debt, concentrated aviation exposures, and insurance or geopolitical uncertainty. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations, medium for normalized valuation and market timing. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. AerCap has a strong franchise and raised guidance, but its capital intensity and exposure to airline conditions make a margin of safety important. | Medium |
AER AI stock forecast
The AER AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $150.90 reference price and the company's raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of about $16.80. The three-year calculation produces bear, base, and bull areas near $118, $206, and $283 before dividends. These are scenarios, not price targets.
$260 to $290
More likely if lease rates and aircraft values stay firm, airline credit remains healthy, AerCap sustains or beats its raised adjusted EPS outlook, repurchases reduce share count, debt costs remain contained, and the market assigns about 12x normalized earnings.
$195 to $215
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 7%, lease demand stays balanced, capital returns continue within funding capacity, and investors value the company near 10x normalized earnings.
$105 to $125
More likely if airline credit weakens, asset values fall, financing costs rise, deliveries or placements slip, insurance recoveries disappoint, or the market values cyclical leasing earnings near 7x.
AER AI technical analysis
AER AI technical analysis is constructive but close to resistance as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The reference price of $150.90 is just below the reported 52-week high of $156.33 and above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Technical levels below are a monitoring framework based on the recent range, not a guarantee of support or resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Reference price | $150.90 | Latest market snapshot used for this page, the July 31, 2026 close, as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $148 to $150 | This is the recent price area to watch after a move toward the 52-week high. |
| Structural support | $140 to $145 | This band overlaps the reported 200-day moving average near $140.94. A sustained break below it would weaken the current higher-range framework. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $144.84, 200-day $140.94 | StockAnalysis reported these averages in the August 2, 2026 snapshot. A trend-following setup is stronger while price holds above both. |
| Near resistance | $156.33 | StockAnalysis reported $156.33 as the 52-week high in the August 2026 market snapshot. |
| Momentum | RSI near 53.68 | StockAnalysis reported a 14-day RSI near 53.68, a neutral reading. Confirm momentum with live price-volume action before treating it as directional. |
| Volume | 1.18 million latest reported volume | The latest reported volume of 1,179,967 was above the 20-day average near 1.02 million. Breakouts should be checked against the live average before being treated as confirmed. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $105.65 to $156.33 | The range shows that aviation, interest-rate, and earnings news can materially change the share price. |
| Invalidation | Close below $140 | A decisive close below this structural support area invalidates the near-term bullish chart framework until it is rebuilt. |
AER AI trading strategy
The AER AI trading strategy is a rules-based monitoring framework, not personalized advice. Pair price levels with live aircraft-leasing data, airline credit developments, funding costs, portfolio transactions, and the next earnings release.
Watch whether AER holds the $148 to $150 area and clears the $156.33 52-week high with above-average volume. Confirm the move with stable airline credit conditions, disciplined funding, and no negative update on aircraft values, lease collections, or the raised 2026 guidance.
Define position size before entry. A failed breakout or a decisive close below $140 weakens the setup.
If AER retraces toward $140 to $145, review lease-rate trends, portfolio sales, funding spreads, adjusted EPS guidance, and net debt before assuming the decline is an opportunity.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because credit events and aircraft-value changes can reprice a lessor quickly.
Track Q3 2026 earnings, the full-year adjusted EPS guidance of about $16.80, lease utilization, aircraft transactions, deliveries including the July 2026 Boeing 787 order, airline receivables, debt maturity and cost, share repurchases, dividends, and Russia-related insurance recovery developments.
Reduce confidence if per-share value depends on one-time recoveries or asset gains rather than recurring lease economics and disciplined capital allocation.
Investment research summary
AerCap buys, finances, leases, sells, and manages commercial aircraft. Airlines pay for aircraft capacity and fleet flexibility without funding every aircraft directly, while AerCap earns lease and asset-management economics over the asset life.
AerCap's moat comes from fleet scale, global airline relationships, aircraft technical and remarketing expertise, manufacturer access, funding capability, and operating history. It is expensive and slow to replicate, but it does not eliminate aviation-cycle risk.
The thesis can fail through airline bankruptcies, a global traffic downturn, asset-value impairment, expensive refinancing, delivery delays, poor aircraft placements, residual-value losses, geopolitical restrictions, or overestimating the durability of insurance recoveries.
Management beat Q2 2026 estimates, raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to about $16.80, and returned capital through a $0.40 quarterly dividend and repurchases of 4.9 million shares for $691 million in the quarter. Assess whether such returns preserve capacity for committed aircraft deliveries and stay disciplined in a weaker cycle.
Commercial aviation benefits from long-run travel demand, aircraft supply constraints, and airline preference for flexible fleet financing. Supply limits and widebody demand can support lease rates, while recession, fuel costs, and airline financial stress can reverse the cycle.
The trailing PE and price-to-book figures look modest, but headline earnings included non-recurring or volatile items such as gains on sale and Ukraine-related recoveries. The forward PE near 8.86x gives a cleaner view. Margin of safety improves when the price allows for lower normalized earnings, leverage, and a weaker aircraft or airline cycle.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AER reference price and market capitalization | $150.90 reference price (July 31, 2026 close) and $23.30 billion reported market capitalization | StockAnalysis AER overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $23.303 billion verified as $150.90 x 154.430065 million shares, versus $23.30 billion reported, a 0.01% deviation | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 154.430 million shares excluding unvested restricted stock as of June 30, 2026 | AerCap Q2 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and net income | $2.167 billion total revenues and other income and $726 million net income, or $4.59 per share | AerCap Q2 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | $811 million adjusted net income, or $5.14 per share, with adjusted return on equity of 18% | AerCap Q2 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | $4.409 billion total revenues and other income and $1.544 billion net income, or $9.56 per share; adjusted net income of $1.700 billion, or $10.53 per share | AerCap Q2 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | Raised to approximately $16.80, excluding any additional gains on sale for the remainder of the year | AerCap Q2 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Book value per share | $119.21 as of June 30, 2026, an increase of approximately 16% from June 30, 2025 | AerCap Q2 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and equity | $1.686 billion cash and cash equivalents (plus $113 million restricted cash), $42.774 billion debt, and $18.409 billion equity at June 30, 2026 | AerCap Q2 2026 press release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $8.517 billion revenue and other income and $3.751 billion net income in AerCap's audited Form 20-F | AerCap 2025 Form 20-F | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation and technical snapshot | Trailing PE 7.40x, forward PE 8.86x, price to book 1.27x, 52-week range $105.65 to $156.33, 50-day average $144.84, 200-day average $140.94, RSI near 53.68, and 1,179,967 latest volume | StockAnalysis AER statistics | August 2, 2026 |
This AER AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of August 2, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, airline credit, aircraft values, rates, funding, geopolitical conditions, or market sentiment changes.
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