ACM Research, Inc. research snapshot
ACMR AI stock analysis reads ACM Research as a fast-growing niche semiconductor equipment supplier with deep China exposure, strong revenue momentum, a net cash balance sheet, but a premium valuation and negative free cash flow. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $78.47 on July 31, 2026, the stock traded near $75.18 on the morning of August 3, market capitalization was about $5.20 billion, and the stock was still working through a sharp correction after touching a 52-week high of $127.19 in late June. The stock fell about 48% from that high to a closing low near $65.30 on July 29, rebounded 20% on July 30, and then pulled back again at the start of August. The main question is whether China semiconductor capex, product diversification into ECP, furnace, and PECVD, a return to positive free cash flow, and the August 7 Q2 FY26 report can support a roughly 57x trailing earnings multiple and about 45x forward earnings. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$75.18 intraday on August 3, 2026, down about 4.2% from the $78.47 July 31 close
Market cap
$5.20 billion
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
High-growth niche supplier in a corrective phase, premium valuation
Trend status
Corrective phase: above the 200-day and 100-day moving averages, below the 20-day and 50-day averages, with an August 7 Q2 FY26 earnings catalyst
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ACM Research sells wet cleaning, electrochemical plating, furnace, PECVD, and advanced packaging equipment to semiconductor manufacturers, primarily in China. Revenue is growing strongly, with Q1 FY26 revenue up 34.2% and shipments up 53.6%, but the TTM gross margin fell to about 44.2% and free cash flow is negative. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Niche moat from patented SAPS and TEBO single-wafer cleaning technologies, a China-first sales and service network, and long-standing relationships with Chinese foundries and memory makers. Competition from Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron limits pricing power, and the newer ECP, furnace, and PECVD products are still ramping. | Medium |
| Management | Founder, Chairman, and CEO Dr. David Wang has deep semiconductor equipment experience. Insiders own about 11.2% of shares. Management is pursuing a Hong Kong listing of ACM Shanghai, sold about 4.8 million ACM Shanghai shares in February 2026 for roughly $110 million in gross proceeds, and filed a 2.88 million share registered direct offering in June, which adds mild dilution. A constructive shareholder letter from Kerrisdale and Steamboat in April 2026 supported the Hong Kong listing path. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $960.23M, up 19.7%, with Q1 FY26 revenue of $231.3M up 34.2% year over year and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.34 beating the consensus of $0.20. Net income declined about 14.6% on a TTM basis, TTM operating cash flow was about -$45 million, and levered free cash flow was about -$142 million, reflecting margin pressure, working capital, and cash invested in growth. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | The stock traded near 57x trailing earnings, about 45x forward earnings on the FY26 consensus EPS of $1.68, and 5.65x sales at the cutoff, with EV/EBITDA near 32x. Net cash of roughly $928 million, about $13.43 per share, provides a buffer, but the multiple leaves limited margin of safety for a cyclical equipment name. | Medium |
| Technical trend | ACMR is in a corrective phase after falling from a 52-week high of $127.19 in late June to a closing low near $65.30 on July 29, rebounding about 20% to $78.65 on July 30, closing at $78.47 on July 31, and then trading near $75.18 on August 3. It sits above the 200-day moving average near $58.29 and the 100-day near $71.07 but below the 20-day near $87.22 and the 50-day near $91.35, with 14-day RSI near 44. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Key risks are China revenue concentration, US-China export controls and tariffs, semiconductor equipment cycle downturn, negative free cash flow, share dilution from the registered direct offering, high short interest near 5.66% of shares outstanding, very high volatility with 14-day historic volatility near 130%, an August 7 earnings event, and a premium valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Medium-high confidence for the business model, financial filings, market cap math, and the technical snapshot. Lower confidence for future returns given cyclical end-markets, policy uncertainty, and the recent violent two-way price swings. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. ACMR has strong growth momentum and a net cash balance sheet, but the correction shows how fast the multiple can compress when the AI-equipment trade unwinds, and the August 7 report is a major near-term unknown. | Low to medium |
ACMR AI stock forecast
The ACMR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $75.18 August 3 reference price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires sustained China semiconductor equipment demand, product share gains beyond wet cleaning, margin recovery, and a return to positive free cash flow. The base case assumes growth moderates while the stock holds an elevated multiple above its 200-day moving average. The bearish case assumes China capex normalizes, US-China tensions disrupt sales, margins keep compressing, or the multiple contracts further.
$100 to $135
More likely if China semiconductor fab buildout accelerates, ACMR gains share in ECP, furnace, and PECVD, gross margin stabilizes above 46%, the August 7 Q2 report beats, and the market keeps assigning 50 to 60x forward EPS on continued hyper-growth. Analyst targets from Goldman Sachs at $164 and Morgan Stanley at $130 support this path.
$68 to $90
More likely if revenue growth settles near 25% to 30%, margins stabilize, the stock holds above the 200-day moving average near $58, and the forward P/E settles toward 40 to 45x as growth expectations normalize after the correction. This is roughly the median target zone near $81.
$40 to $58
More likely if the AI-equipment correction deepens, US-China export controls widen, China semiconductor capex slows, the August 7 report disappoints, customer concentration becomes a problem, or the multiple resets toward 25 to 30x forward EPS on growth deceleration. Targets near $70 from the low end of consensus and $76 from Argus mark this area.
ACMR AI technical analysis
ACMR AI technical analysis starts from the $75.18 morning reference on August 3, 2026, after a $78.47 close on July 31. The stock fell from a 52-week high of $127.19 in late June to a closing low near $65.30 on July 29, rebounded about 20% to $78.65 on July 30, and then pulled back to the mid-70s. It trades above the 200-day moving average near $58.29 and the 100-day near $71.07 but below the 20-day near $87.22 and the 50-day near $91.35, with 14-day RSI near 44 and 14-day ADX near 20, a weak trend reading with negative directional pressure. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $75.18 | StockAnalysis.com real-time snapshot on the morning of August 3, 2026, down about 4.2% from the $78.47 close on July 31, which is the last verified daily close before this cutoff. |
| Near support | $70 to $72 | The July 28 to July 30 trading zone where the late-July bounce consolidated. A pullback into this area would keep the medium-term structure intact above the 200-day average. |
| Secondary support | $65 to $68 | The July 29 closing low near $65.30 with an intraday low near $63.53. A break below this zone would signal that the rebound has failed. |
| Major support | $58 to $60 | The area around the 200-day moving average near $58.29 (Barchart) or $58.10 (StockAnalysis.com). A sustained break below this level would weaken the long-term technical structure. |
| Near resistance | $78 to $80 | The July 30 close near $78.65 and the July 31 close near $78.47. A close above this area with volume would signal that the rebound is stabilizing. |
| Secondary resistance | $85 to $92 | The 20-day moving average near $87.22 and the 50-day moving average near $91.35 form a heavy overhead zone that price must reclaim to resume a sustainable uptrend. |
| 52-week high | $127.19 | The late-June 52-week high is the major resistance reference if the stock resumes its uptrend. |
| 5-day moving average | $73.93 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $73.93 on August 3, 2026, below the current price, a mildly positive short-term signal after the rebound. |
| 20-day moving average | About $87.22 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $87.22 on August 3, above the current price and acting as overhead resistance. |
| 50-day moving average | About $91.28 to $91.35 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day near $91.28 and Barchart near $91.35 on August 3, both well above price. |
| 200-day moving average | About $58.10 to $58.29 | The 200-day moving average sits below the current price and is the key long-term support reference. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44, ADX near 20 | 14-day RSI near 44.19 on StockAnalysis.com is neutral. 14-day ADX near 20 with negative directional pressure (about -DI 31.7 versus +DI 24.1 on Barchart) reflects a weak-trend, corrective market rather than a strong uptrend. |
| Volume | About 1.0 million to 1.6 million shares average | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 1.11 million shares and Barchart near 1.04 million, with heavy volume on the June peak, the late-July selloff, and the July 30 rebound day. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.90, 14-day historic volatility near 130% | Beta of 1.90 and very high realized volatility mean ACMR amplifies market moves, so position sizing should account for larger-than-average daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $65, then $58 | A sustained close below the July 29 low zone near $65 would weaken the rebound. A close below the 200-day area near $58 would challenge the broader rally structure. |
ACMR AI trading strategy
The ACMR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines filing-backed business evidence, technical confirmation, position sizing, and clear invalidation levels, and it flags the August 7, 2026 Q2 FY26 earnings report as the dominant near-term catalyst.
Look for ACMR to hold above the $70 to $72 support zone and reclaim the $85 to $92 resistance area, which includes the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with volume before treating the correction as over and momentum as sustainable.
A failed reclaim of the 20-day or 50-day average, or a daily close below the $65 to $68 support, should reduce confidence. ACMR is a high-beta stock, so risk per position should be sized accordingly.
If ACMR pulls back toward $70 to $72 or the 200-day average zone near $58 without a thesis break, compare price stabilization with the August 7 Q2 FY26 earnings report, China equipment spending data, export control developments, and the Hong Kong listing progress of ACM Shanghai.
Do not average down into a falling stock assuming the uptrend will resume. Define maximum loss per trade and confirm that the cyclical and policy backdrop supports the thesis before adding size.
Track quarterly revenue growth, gross margin trend, operating leverage, free cash flow inflection, China fab utilization rates, US-China trade policy, share dilution from the registered direct offering, analyst estimate revisions, and any ACM Shanghai Hong Kong listing news.
Lower the rating if revenue growth slows for two consecutive quarters, margins keep falling, free cash flow stays negative, or US-China export controls materially expand. The stock deserves a lower multiple if the growth narrative weakens.
Investment research summary
ACM Research supplies wet cleaning, electrochemical plating, furnace, PECVD, and advanced packaging equipment to semiconductor fabs, with most revenue coming from Chinese foundry, memory, and packaging customers.
The moat is built on patented SAPS and TEBO single-wafer cleaning technologies, a China-first go-to-market approach with local service support, and customer relationships built over more than a decade. Competition from Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron limits the breadth and pricing power of the moat, and the diversification into ECP, furnace, and PECVD is still in the ramping stage.
The thesis can fail if China semiconductor capex normalizes, US-China trade restrictions cut off equipment sales to key Chinese customers, the company fails to diversify beyond wet cleaning into higher-margin ECP, furnace, and PECVD products, margin compression continues, free cash flow stays negative, the June registered direct offering keeps diluting, or the premium valuation contracts as growth slows.
Founder, Chairman, and CEO Dr. David Wang brings deep semiconductor equipment experience and has pushed product diversification, an Oregon facility ramp, and a proposed Hong Kong listing of ACM Shanghai. Management sold about 4.8 million ACM Shanghai shares in February 2026 for roughly $110 million in gross proceeds, filed a 2.88 million share registered direct offering in June, and received a constructive April 2026 letter from Kerrisdale and Steamboat supporting the Hong Kong listing path. Insiders own about 11.2%, aligning broadly with shareholder interests.
ACM sits at the center of the China semiconductor self-sufficiency buildout and global equipment demand driven by AI chips, advanced packaging, and mature-node capacity. The trend is structurally supportive, but capex cycles remain cyclical and policy-dependent, as the July 2026 AI-equipment selloff demonstrated.
At roughly 57x trailing earnings and about 45x forward earnings on the FY26 consensus EPS of $1.68, the price still embeds aggressive growth expectations. Net cash of roughly $928 million, about $13.43 per share, cushions a downside, but the negative free cash flow and premium multiple leave limited margin of safety for a cyclical equipment name.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACMR price | $75.18 real-time on August 3, 2026, down about 4.2% from the $78.47 close on July 31 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.20 billion, verified as $75.18 x 69.11 million shares (0.08% deviation) | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.49 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $960.23 million, up 19.7% | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $91.01 million, down 14.6% | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY26 revenue | $231.3 million, up 34.2% year over year | ACM Research Q1 2026 results via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY26 shipments | $240.7 million, up 53.6% year over year | ACM Research Q1 2026 results via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY26 non-GAAP diluted EPS | $0.34, consensus $0.20 | ACM Research Q1 2026 results via GlobeNewswire and TheFly | August 3, 2026 |
| FY26 revenue guidance | $1.08B to $1.175B, maintained | ACM Research Q1 2026 guidance via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, restricted cash, and short-term time deposits | $1.25 billion at March 31, 2026, versus $1.13 billion at December 31, 2025 | ACM Research Q1 2026 results via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and short-term investments | $1.287 billion (latest quarter) | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | $337.06 million | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Net cash | About $928 million on the statistics page, about $13.43 per share, with the balance sheet page showing about $950 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $1.31 | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 57.14x trailing PE, 5.65x PS, 3.29x PB, 32.43x EV/EBITDA, ROE 7.60%, ROIC 9.61%, Altman Z-Score 2.76, Piotroski F-Score 3 from StockAnalysis.com statistics | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow of about -$106.90 million (operating cash flow -$45.15 million less capex -$61.76 million) on StockAnalysis.com; levered free cash flow of about -$142.42 million on Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.91 million shares, 5.66% of shares outstanding, 6.41% of float | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 8 analysts, average target $102.14, low $70, median $81, high $164, with targets last updated on July 2, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and S&P Global | July 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Goldman Sachs $109 to $164 on July 2, 2026; Morgan Stanley $90 to $130 on June 23, 2026; Roth MKM $100 to $125 on June 17, 2026; Craig-Hallum $67 to $81 on May 8, 2026; Seaport Global Buy at $75 on May 11, 2026; Argus lowered to $76 with a Hold rating in early August 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and Yahoo Finance research reports | August 3, 2026 |
| FY26 and FY27 consensus estimates | FY26 revenue estimate $1.16 billion with EPS $1.68, FY27 revenue $1.46 billion with EPS $2.25, and a 3-year revenue growth forecast near 28% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix (TTM) | Single wafer cleaning, Tahoe, and semi-critical cleaning about $618.88 million; ECP, furnace, and other technologies about $256.16 million; advanced packaging excluding ECP, services, and spares about $85.19 million | StockAnalysis.com financials segment data | August 3, 2026 |
| ACM Shanghai share sale | About 4.8 million ACM Shanghai shares sold on February 6, 2026 at RMB160.00 per share, roughly $110 million in gross proceeds and about $86 million net of taxes | ACM Research Q1 2026 results via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| ACM Shanghai Hong Kong listing | ACM Research (Shanghai) announced on April 17, 2026 a proposed issuance of overseas listed H shares and an application for a secondary listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange | ACM Research Q1 2026 results and Form 8-K via GlobeNewswire | August 3, 2026 |
| Kerrisdale and Steamboat letter | On April 22, 2026, Kerrisdale Capital Management and Steamboat Capital Partners sent a constructive letter to the CEO and Board supporting the Hong Kong listing path and indicating they would each commit at least $20 million, up to $100 million combined, as anchor investors in a potential ACMR Hong Kong offering | PR Newswire letter from Kerrisdale and Steamboat | August 3, 2026 |
| Registered direct offering | ACM Research filed a 2.88 million share registered direct offering with certain U.S. institutional investors managed by Tekne Capital Management in June 2026 | TheFly via TipRanks and SEC filing | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $23.03 to $127.19, up about 145% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 1.90 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $73.93, 20-day SMA near $87.22, 50-day SMA near $91.28 to $91.35, 100-day SMA near $71.07, 200-day SMA near $58.10 to $58.29, 14-day RSI near 44.19, 14-day ADX near 20, 14-day historic volatility near 130% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
This ACMR AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
