VALE technical analysis
VALE Technical Analysis
Analysis date
July 15, 2026
Market
NYSE (USD)
Daily cutoff
July 14, 2026
Reliability
Passed
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Data verification
VALE Data Verification
Cross-validating the latest completed daily bar across independent sources.
- Symbol
- VALE
- Market
- NYSE
- Currency
- USD (US Dollar)
- Latest completed bar
- July 14, 2026
No adjustment factor (adjusted close equals raw close, factor 1.0). No stock splits or dividend adjustments affecting the analysis period.
| Source | Latest Close | Date | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance Chart API (primary) | 13.82 | July 14, 2026 | - | Verified |
| Finviz (independent) | 13.82 | July 14, 2026 (previous close) | 0.00% | Verified |
Bottom line
VALE Technical Analysis Summary
Vale S.A. presents a mixed technical picture shaped by ongoing weakness in iron ore prices and uncertainty around Chinese steel demand. Price at 13.82 sits below SMA20 (14.15) and SMA50 (14.40), confirming short-term bearish momentum. RSI14 at 42.35 is below the 50 midline, indicating bearish bias without reaching oversold territory. The daily MACD shows the MACD line at -0.12 below the signal line at -0.08 with a negative histogram at -0.04, reflecting steady but not accelerating downside momentum. The weekly chart reinforces the cautious view with price well below SMA20 (14.85) and SMA50 (15.30). Key resistance stands at SMA20 (14.15), the 20-day high of 14.55, and the 60-day high of 15.10. Key support lies at 13.40 (20-day low), 12.80 (60-day low), and 12.10 (52-week low). A sustained move above 14.55 would be an early sign of short-term improvement, but the structural trend will remain neutral-to-bearish until the stock reclaims the SMA50 zone near 14.40 and the 60-day high. Related coverage: VALE max pain levels are available on the VALE max pain page.
Multi-timeframe dashboard
Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard
Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.
Daily (July 14, 2026)
- Trend
- Weak and corrective. Price at 13.82 is below SMA20 (14.15, -2.33%), SMA50 (14.40, -4.03%), and SMA200 (15.60, -11.41%). All three major SMAs are sloping downward, with the SMA200 declining at the slowest rate. This configuration reflects a well-established corrective phase within a longer-term structural downtrend tied to iron ore price weakness.
- Momentum
- Bearish. RSI14 at 42.35 is below the 50 midline, confirming bearish bias without reaching oversold conditions (below 30 would signal exhaustion). MACD line at -0.12 remains below the signal line at -0.08, and the histogram at -0.04 is modestly negative. The narrowing histogram suggests downside momentum may be stabilizing rather than intensifying, which is consistent with the commodity cycle bottoming process.
- Volatility
- Moderate. ATR14 at 0.35 (2.53% of price) indicates average daily movement of around 2.5%, typical for a commodity-linked stock. Bollinger Bands (13.10 to 15.20) show price in the lower half of the band, consistent with the corrective bias. Band width is moderate, suggesting the current range-bound action may persist.
- Volume
- Slightly below average. Latest volume of 18,200,000 is 87.3% of the 20-period average (20,850,000), indicating no panic selling or aggressive accumulation. Volume patterns are consistent with a drift lower driven by macro sentiment rather than stock-specific selling pressure.
Assessment
The daily chart presents a weak technical picture. VALE is trading below all three major moving averages, RSI is in bearish territory, and the MACD is negative. The stock has declined from its 60-day high of 15.10 to the current 13.82, a drop of approximately 8.5%. The narrowing MACD histogram suggests the pace of decline may be slowing. However, with RSI at 42.35, there is room for further downside before reaching oversold levels that would signal a potential reversal. A break below the 20-day low of 13.40 would confirm further downside toward the 52-week low of 12.10. Volume is not signaling capitulation, which argues against an imminent reversal. The daily picture favors sellers until the stock can reclaim SMA20 at 14.15 with conviction.
Weekly (July 6, 2026 week)
- Trend
- Distinctly bearish. Price at 13.65 is well below SMA20 (14.85, -8.08%), SMA50 (15.30, -10.78%), and SMA200 (16.10, -15.22%). All three weekly SMAs are declining, with the shorter averages below longer ones, a bearish alignment. This configuration reflects a sustained downtrend that has been in place for multiple months, driven by persistent headwinds in the iron ore market.
- Momentum
- Bearish. RSI14 at 36.45 is in bearish territory and approaching oversold conditions. MACD line at -0.35 is below the signal line at -0.20, with a negative histogram at -0.15. The weekly MACD has been in a sustained bearish crossover since early 2026, reflecting persistent selling pressure at the weekly timeframe.
- Volatility
- Elevated for the stock. ATR14 at 0.85 (6.23% of price) indicates above-average weekly ranges, consistent with the corrective phase. Bollinger Bands (12.20 to 16.80) show price in the lower half and approaching the lower band at 12.20, which has historically acted as a support area.
- Volume
- Near average. Weekly volume of 108,500,000 is 95.2% of the 20-week average (113,900,000), indicating that selling pressure, while persistent, is not accelerating. The absence of a volume spike on down weeks suggests the correction is methodical rather than panicked.
Assessment
The weekly chart confirms a sustained downtrend. VALE has been declining from its mid-2025 highs near 19.00 and is now approaching the 52-week low area near 12.10. All three weekly SMAs are in bearish alignment, RSI at 36.45 is in bearish territory, and the MACD remains in a sustained bearish crossover. The stock is positioned near the lower Bollinger Band at 12.20, which can act as support. However, the consistent down-trending SMAs and bearish momentum indicators suggest that any bounces are likely to attract selling into strength. The weekly position at 27.5% of the 52-week range (12.10 to 18.60) reflects a stock that has given back most of its prior-year gains and is testing multi-month support zones.
Key indicators
VALE Key Technical Indicators
RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Indicator | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 42.35 | 36.45 |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | -0.12 / -0.08 / -0.04 | -0.35 / -0.20 / -0.15 |
| ATR (14) | 0.35 (2.53%) | 0.85 (6.23%) |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2) | 13.10 - 15.20 | 12.20 - 16.80 |
| SMA (20) | 14.15 | 14.85 |
| SMA (50) | 14.40 | 15.30 |
| SMA (200) | 15.60 | 16.10 |
Price structure
VALE Price Structure and Returns
Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.
| Metric | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | 13.82 | 13.65 |
| 1-Period Return | -0.43% | -0.87% |
| 5-Period Return | -2.12% | -4.20% |
| 20-Period Return | -2.68% | -3.15% |
| 60-Period Return | -7.35% | -11.80% |
| 252-Period Return | -18.50% | -22.30% |
| 52-Week Low | 12.10 | 12.10 |
| 52-Week High | 18.60 | 18.60 |
| 52-Week Position | 29.85% | 27.50% |
Key levels
VALE Support and Resistance Levels
Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Level | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| 20-Period High | 14.55 | 15.40 |
| 20-Period Low | 13.40 | 12.80 |
| 60-Period High | 15.10 | 18.60 |
| 60-Period Low | 12.80 | 12.10 |
Scenarios
VALE Technical Scenarios
Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.
Bearish Continuation
Trigger
Price breaks below the 20-day low at 13.40, targeting the 60-day low at 12.80 and eventually the 52-week low at 12.10. Weekly RSI below 35 and MACD histogram deepening would confirm. Iron ore prices falling below $100 per ton would act as a macro catalyst for further downside.
Invalidation
Price holds above 13.40 and reclaims SMA20 (14.15) on above-average volume with improving RSI momentum.
What to watch
Daily RSI remaining below 40; MACD histogram turning more negative; volume picking up on break attempts below 13.40; iron ore spot price direction; Chinese steel production data; Vale production guidance and cost updates.
Stabilization and Range-Bound
Trigger
Price oscillates between 13.40 (20-day low) and 14.55 (20-day high) as the stock consolidates after the corrective move from the 60-day high near 15.10. A sideways pattern would indicate the market is awaiting clearer direction on iron ore demand.
Invalidation
A decisive break above 14.55 or below 13.40 with volume confirmation.
What to watch
RSI oscillating between 35 and 50; MACD histogram flattening near zero; volume declining further; iron ore price stabilization; Vale operational updates on S11D expansion and cost reduction initiatives; Brazilian real exchange rate movements.
Recovery
Trigger
Price reclaims SMA20 (14.15) and SMA50 (14.40) on strong volume, then challenges the 60-day high at 15.10. A weekly close above SMA20 at 14.85 would be an early reversal signal. This scenario typically requires a catalyst such as improved Chinese stimulus or supply disruptions in the iron ore market.
Invalidation
Price fails at SMA20 or SMA50 and falls back below 13.60, resuming the corrective downtrend.
What to watch
Daily RSI crossing above 50; MACD generating a bullish crossover; volume expanding on up days; iron ore price recovery above $110; Chinese infrastructure stimulus announcements; Vale shareholder returns including dividends and buyback updates.
Methodology
Methodology and Limitations
This technical analysis uses adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). The daily analysis covers approximately 2 years (501 completed bars) ending July 14, 2026. The weekly analysis covers approximately 5 years (261 completed bars) ending the week of July 6, 2026. Prices are adjusted for dividends and stock splits using the adjusted close/raw close ratio. Volume data is from the primary source and may not match other data providers. Technical indicators include SMA, RSI, MACD, ATR, and Bollinger Bands using standard parameters. Key levels are identified from recent swing highs and lows. Technical analysis studies historical price patterns and does not constitute investment advice. It should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). Data cutoffs: daily July 14, 2026, weekly July 6, 2026 week. Generated July 15, 2026.
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