ULTA technical analysis

ULTA Technical Analysis

Analysis date

July 15, 2026

Market

NASDAQ (USD)

Daily cutoff

July 14, 2026

Reliability

Passed

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Data verification

ULTA Data Verification

Cross-validating the latest completed daily bar across independent sources.

Symbol
ULTA
Market
NASDAQ
Currency
USD (US Dollar)
Latest completed bar
July 14, 2026

No adjustment factor (adjusted close equals raw close, factor 1.0). No stock splits or dividend adjustments affecting the analysis period.

SourceLatest CloseDateDifferenceStatus
Yahoo Finance Chart API (primary)469.12July 14, 2026-Verified
Finviz (independent)469.12July 14, 2026 (previous close)0.00%Verified

Bottom line

ULTA Technical Analysis Summary

ULTA (Ulta Beauty Inc) is trading near its 52-week low at 469.12, positioned at the 9.4th percentile of its 52-week range. The daily trend shows a fragile bounce with price above SMA20 (463.95) but still well below SMA50 (484.49) and SMA200 (558.99). RSI at 49.11 is neutral, while MACD has printed a positive histogram crossover at 2.75, suggesting early momentum improvement. The weekly picture remains more bearish with price at 469.20 below SMA20 (522.92) and SMA50 (552.74), barely above SMA200 (464.25), and RSI at 39.59 in bearish territory. The stock has declined approximately 34% from its 52-week high of 714.97. Key support is at 443.60 (52-week/20-day low), and resistance sits at 493.98 (20-day high) and 484.49 (SMA50). A sustained move above SMA50 would be the first meaningful bullish signal.

Multi-timeframe dashboard

Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard

Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.

Daily (July 14, 2026)

Trend
Mixed with short-term bounce. Price at 469.12 is above SMA20 (463.95) but below SMA50 (484.49) and SMA200 (558.99). The stock has been in a persistent downtrend since November 2025, declining from the 714.97 peak. However, the price has bounced from the 443.60 52-week low, stabilizing above SMA20 for the first time in weeks.
Momentum
Neutral with improving tone. RSI14 at 49.11 is right at the 50 midline, indicating no clear directional momentum. MACD at -5.50 remains below zero but has crossed above the signal line (-8.26), with the histogram at 2.75 positive and expanding. This is a bullish momentum crossover, though still in negative territory.
Volatility
Moderate. ATR14 at 14.31 (3.05% of price) reflects contained daily swings. Bollinger Bands (442.23 to 485.67) are relatively narrow, with price rebounding from the lower band toward the middle, suggesting the sharp selloff may be exhausting.
Volume
Below average. Latest volume of 448,509 is 60.6% of the 20-period average (739,910), indicating low conviction in the recent bounce. Sustained volume expansion would be needed to confirm a reversal.

Assessment

The daily timeframe shows tentative signs of stabilization. Price above SMA20 and the positive MACD histogram crossover are early bullish signals. However, RSI at neutral and below-average volume suggest this is a low-conviction bounce rather than a confirmed trend reversal. The stock must reclaim SMA50 at 484.49 to build a more constructive daily picture.

Weekly (July 6, 2026 week)

Trend
Bearish. Price at 469.20 is below SMA20 (522.92) and SMA50 (552.74), and only marginally above SMA200 (464.25). The SMA200 at 464.25 is the last major support. A weekly close below 464.25 would be a significant structural breakdown. The downtrend on the weekly has been persistent since late 2025.
Momentum
Bearish. RSI14 at 39.59 is below the 50 midline in bearish territory. MACD at -29.23 is deeply negative, below the signal line (-21.53), and the histogram at -7.71 is expanding downward, confirming sustained bearish momentum on the weekly timeframe.
Volatility
Elevated. ATR14 at 37.20 (7.93% of price) reflects large weekly ranges consistent with a stock in a prolonged downtrend. Bollinger Bands (409.90 to 635.95) are wide, with price trading in the lower half of the range.
Volume
Below average. Latest weekly volume of 2,506,900 is 66.8% of the 20-week average (3,750,665), suggesting declining participation in the selloff. This could indicate selling exhaustion but does not yet signal accumulation.

Assessment

The weekly timeframe remains clearly bearish. Price is below both short-term moving averages with RSI in bearish territory and MACD deeply negative. The critical level to watch is SMA200 at 464.25. A weekly close below this level would confirm a long-term trend change. Conversely, a bounce from SMA200 with improving volume would provide a base for potential stabilization.

Key indicators

ULTA Key Technical Indicators

RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.

IndicatorDailyWeekly
RSI (14)49.1139.59
MACD (12, 26, 9)-5.50 / -8.26 / +2.75-29.23 / -21.53 / -7.71
ATR (14)14.31 (3.05%)37.20 (7.93%)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)442.23 - 485.67409.90 - 635.95
SMA (20)463.95522.92
SMA (50)484.49552.74
SMA (200)558.99464.25

Price structure

ULTA Price Structure and Returns

Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.

MetricDailyWeekly
Current Price469.12469.20
1-Period Return-0.89%+1.71%
5-Period Return+3.38%+0.46%
20-Period Return+0.30%-31.29%
60-Period Return-13.04%+13.61%
252-Period Return-1.62%+25.18%
52-Week Low443.60443.60
52-Week High714.97714.97
52-Week Position9.40%9.43%

Key levels

ULTA Support and Resistance Levels

Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.

LevelDailyWeekly
20-Period High493.98702.53
20-Period Low443.60443.60
60-Period High578.63714.97
60-Period Low443.60402.50

Scenarios

ULTA Technical Scenarios

Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.

Bullish

Trigger

Price reclaims SMA50 (484.49) on the daily with expanding volume, followed by a move above 493.98 (20-day high). A weekly SMA200 hold at 464.25 provides the foundation.

Invalidation

Price breaks below the 20-day/52-week low of 443.60 with increasing volume.

What to watch

RSI moving above 50 on the daily; MACD histogram continuing to expand positively; weekly RSI recovering above 40; volume confirming up days.

Range-Bound

Trigger

Price oscillates between 443.60 support (52-week/20-day low) and 484.49-493.98 resistance (SMA50 and 20-day high) as the stock base-builds after the extended downtrend.

Invalidation

A decisive close above 493.98 or below 443.60 with above-average volume.

What to watch

RSI oscillating between 40 and 60; volume declining further, indicating stabilization and distribution exhaustion.

Bearish

Trigger

Price breaks below the SMA200 at 464.25 on the weekly and falls through 443.60 support, confirming a structural trend breakdown to new lows.

Invalidation

Price reclaims SMA50 (484.49) and holds above the SMA20 (463.95) on the daily.

What to watch

Consecutive weekly closes below 464.25; RSI remaining below 40 on the weekly; MACD histogram continuing to expand downward; volume spikes on breakdown days.

Methodology

Methodology and Limitations

This technical analysis uses adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). The daily analysis covers approximately 2 years (501 completed bars) ending July 14, 2026. The weekly analysis covers approximately 5 years (261 completed bars) ending the week of July 6, 2026. Prices are adjusted for dividends and stock splits using the adjusted close/raw close ratio. Volume data is from the primary source and may not match other data providers. Technical indicators include SMA, RSI, MACD, ATR, and Bollinger Bands using standard parameters. Key levels are identified from recent swing highs and lows. Technical analysis studies historical price patterns and does not constitute investment advice. It should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). Data cutoffs: daily July 14, 2026, weekly July 6, 2026 week. Generated July 15, 2026.