MSFT technical analysis
MSFT Technical Analysis
Analysis date
August 4, 2026
Market
NasdaqGS (USD)
Daily cutoff
August 3, 2026
Reliability
Passed
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Data verification
MSFT Data Verification
Checking the latest completed daily bar for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated.
- Symbol
- MSFT
- Market
- NasdaqGS
- Currency
- USD (US Dollar)
- Latest completed bar
- August 3, 2026
Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Date and closing-price consistency checks passed for the latest completed daily bar.
| Validation series | Latest Close | Date | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calculation series | 487.65 | August 3, 2026 | - | Verified |
| Verification series 1 | 487.65 | August 3, 2026 | 0.00% | Verified |
| Verification series 2 | 487.65 | August 3, 2026 | 0.00% | Verified |
Bottom line
MSFT Technical Analysis Summary
MSFT has staged a sharp recovery, rallying about 25% over the past five trading sessions to 487.65 as of the August 3, 2026 daily cutoff. Price has reclaimed the SMA20 (401.91), SMA50 (400.74), and SMA200 (432.14) on the daily chart, and the daily MACD histogram is strongly positive at 10.41 with RSI at 78.28. The weekly chart confirms the improvement, with price at 464.72 above all weekly moving averages and the weekly MACD histogram turning positive at 5.34. Volume is running well above average on both timeframes, supporting the move. However, the rally is extended: RSI is in overbought territory and price sits above the upper Bollinger Bands on both charts, so a pause or pullback is possible. Resistance is the recent swing high at 491.65 (daily), followed by the 52-week high near 550.24. Support is at the daily SMA200 (432.14), then the 20-period low at 373.35 and the 52-week low at 349.20. MSFT remains about 8% lower over the past year, so the recovery is happening within a longer corrective phase that needs a sustained hold above the daily SMA200 to confirm a broader reversal.
Multi-timeframe dashboard
Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard
Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.
Daily (August 3, 2026)
- Trend
- Recovering. Price at 487.65 is above SMA20 (401.91), SMA50 (400.74), and SMA200 (432.14), having reclaimed all three key averages after the recent surge. The SMA20 has turned up and is converging with the SMA50, though the SMA200 remains above the shorter averages, so the long-term alignment is not yet a full bullish stack. The strong advance has shifted the structure from corrective to early recovery.
- Momentum
- Strongly bullish but extended. RSI14 at 78.28 is in overbought territory above 70. The MACD line at 14.88 is well above the signal line at 4.46 with a positive histogram of 10.41, confirming a powerful upside momentum surge. Overbought RSI does not guarantee an immediate pullback, but it does reduce the margin for further near-term gains.
- Volatility
- Elevated. ATR14 at 16.79 (3.44% of price) reflects larger daily swings during the rally. Bollinger Bands (344.16 to 459.66) are wide and price at 487.65 is above the upper band, indicating an unusually strong upside move that often precedes consolidation.
- Volume
- Above average. Latest volume of 66,651,900 is 1.76 times the 20-period average (37,867,535), confirming broad participation in the rally. Strong volume on the advance supports the move rather than a low-conviction bounce.
Assessment
The daily chart shows a sharp recovery with price reclaiming all three key moving averages and MACD momentum firmly positive. Volume confirms participation, and the close above the upper Bollinger Band reflects strength while also leaving the stock extended in the near term. RSI at 78.28 is overbought. The near-term watch is whether MSFT can hold above the SMA200 at 432.14 and push through the recent swing high at 491.65, or whether it first consolidates to work off the overbought condition. A move below SMA20 at 401.91 would signal that the rally is losing momentum.
Weekly (July 27, 2026 week)
- Trend
- Improving. Price at 464.72 is above SMA20 (400.93), SMA50 (443.80), and SMA200 (385.96), with the SMA200 now turning up. The SMA20 remains below the SMA50, reflecting that the average structure is still catching up to the sharp price advance. The weekly close near the recent swing high at 466.84 shows the medium-term trend is shifting from corrective to constructive.
- Momentum
- Bullish crossover. RSI14 at 60.59 is above 50, indicating positive momentum. The MACD line at -7.06 has crossed above the signal line at -12.40 with a positive histogram of 5.34, the first meaningful bullish crossover after a long bearish stretch. This supports a medium-term improvement in momentum.
- Volatility
- Elevated. ATR14 at 32.60 (7.01% of price) reflects wide weekly ranges during the recovery. Bollinger Bands (346.06 to 455.79) show price above the upper band, consistent with the strong weekly advance.
- Volume
- Above average. Weekly volume of 278,439,400 is 1.52 times the 20-week average (183,631,250), confirming participation across the bounce.
Assessment
The weekly chart shows momentum turning positive with a fresh MACD bullish crossover and RSI above 50. Price has reclaimed the SMA200 at 385.96 and is testing the 20-week swing high at 466.84. Volume is above average, supporting the recovery. The main caveat is that price is extended above the upper Bollinger Band and the SMA20 has not yet crossed above the SMA50. A weekly close above 466.84 would open the path toward the 60-period high at 551.05, while a weekly close below the SMA200 at 385.96 would invalidate the improvement.
Key indicators
MSFT Key Technical Indicators
RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Indicator | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 78.28 | 60.59 |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | 14.88 / 4.46 / 10.41 | -7.06 / -12.40 / 5.34 |
| ATR (14) | 16.79 (3.44%) | 32.60 (7.01%) |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2) | 344.16 - 459.66 | 346.06 - 455.79 |
| SMA (20) | 401.91 | 400.93 |
| SMA (50) | 400.74 | 443.80 |
| SMA (200) | 432.14 | 385.96 |
Price structure
MSFT Price Structure and Returns
Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.
| Metric | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | 487.65 | 464.72 |
| 1-Period Return | +4.93% | +21.75% |
| 5-Period Return | +25.33% | +24.60% |
| 20-Period Return | +26.09% | +17.74% |
| 60-Period Return | +18.06% | -0.41% |
| 252-Period Return | -7.86% | +67.18% |
| 52-Week Low | 349.20 | 349.20 |
| 52-Week High | 550.24 | 550.24 |
| 52-Week Position | 68.87% | 57.46% |
Key levels
MSFT Support and Resistance Levels
Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Level | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| 20-Period High | 491.65 | 466.84 |
| 20-Period Low | 373.35 | 349.20 |
| 60-Period High | 491.65 | 551.05 |
| 60-Period Low | 349.20 | 349.20 |
Scenarios
MSFT Technical Scenarios
Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.
Bullish
Trigger
Price holds above the daily SMA200 at 432.14 and breaks and holds above the recent swing high at 491.65 on strong volume.
Invalidation
Price falls back below the daily SMA50 at 400.74.
What to watch
Daily MACD histogram staying positive; RSI holding above 50 after any pullback; a weekly close above the 20-week swing high at 466.84.
Range-Bound
Trigger
Price consolidates between the daily SMA20 at 401.91 and the recent swing high at 491.65 to work off the overbought RSI.
Invalidation
A decisive break of either boundary with volume confirmation.
What to watch
RSI moving back toward the 40 to 60 zone; volume easing back to average; the MACD histogram flattening.
Bearish
Trigger
Price fails to hold above the daily SMA200 at 432.14 and breaks below the daily SMA20 at 401.91 with increasing downside volume.
Invalidation
Price reclaims the recent swing high at 491.65 and holds above it.
What to watch
The MACD histogram turning negative; RSI falling below 50; a weekly close below the SMA200 at 385.96.
Methodology
Methodology and Limitations
This technical analysis is calculated locally from adjusted OHLCV history. The daily series ends August 3, 2026, and the weekly series ends July 27, 2026 week. The latest completed daily bar is independently checked for date and closing-price consistency. Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Indicators include Wilder RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), SMA20/50/200, Wilder ATR(14), Bollinger Bands(20,2), relative volume, multi-period returns, and price-range levels. Support and resistance are descriptive zones, not guaranteed reversal points. Historical patterns do not predict future prices, and this page is not investment advice.
Frequently Asked Questions
This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Market data is checked for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated. Data cutoffs: daily August 3, 2026, weekly July 27, 2026 week. Generated August 4, 2026.
Related Tools
AI Chart Analyzer
Upload a TradingView chart screenshot and get instant AI-powered technical analysis. Identify patterns, support and resistance, and key levels.
Support and Resistance Calculator
Calculate key support and resistance levels for any stock. Identify potential price zones where reversals or breakouts may occur.
RSI Calculator
Calculate the Relative Strength Index for any stock. Determine overbought and oversold conditions with customizable periods.