MSFT technical analysis

MSFT Technical Analysis

Analysis date

July 15, 2026

Market

NasdaqGS (USD)

Daily cutoff

July 14, 2026

Reliability

Passed

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Data verification

MSFT Data Verification

Cross-validating the latest completed daily bar across independent sources.

Symbol
MSFT
Market
NasdaqGS
Currency
USD (US Dollar)
Latest completed bar
July 14, 2026

No adjustment factor (adjusted close equals raw close, factor 1.0). No stock splits or dividend adjustments affecting the analysis period.

SourceLatest CloseDateDifferenceStatus
Yahoo Finance Chart API (primary)384.93July 14, 2026-Verified
Finviz (independent)384.93July 14, 2026 (previous close)0.00%Verified

Bottom line

MSFT Technical Analysis Summary

MSFT is in a corrective downtrend with price trading below its SMA50 (402.24) and SMA200 (439.52) on the daily timeframe, reflecting a -22.91% decline over the past year. Early stabilization signs include a recovery above SMA20 at 380.26 and a daily MACD bullish crossover (histogram positive at +2.52). On the weekly chart, price is testing the SMA200 at 383.22, a critical long-term support level. RSI at 47.55 (daily) and 42.36 (weekly) is neutral to mildly bearish, not yet oversold. Key resistance is at SMA50 (402.24) and SMA200 (439.52). Key support is the 52-week low at 349.20. A move above 402.24 would signal a potential trend reversal; a breakdown below 349.20 would open further downside.

Multi-timeframe dashboard

Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard

Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.

Daily (July 14, 2026)

Trend
Mixed to bearish. Price at 384.93 is above SMA20 (380.26) but below SMA50 (402.24) and SMA200 (439.52). The SMA20 is below SMA50 and SMA200, indicating a bearish medium-term alignment. The short-term bounce above SMA20 is a tentative positive, but the overall structure remains corrective.
Momentum
Neutral with early bullish signals. RSI14 at 47.55 is in neutral territory near the midpoint. The MACD at -4.10 crossed above the signal line at -6.62 with a positive and rising histogram of 2.52, indicating a potential momentum shift from bearish to bullish.
Volatility
Moderate. ATR14 at 11.83 (3.07% of price) reflects average daily movement of about 3.1%. Bollinger Bands (358.30 to 402.21) show price near the middle band at 380.26, indicating no extreme volatility expansion.
Volume
Below average. Latest volume of 27,741,653 is 59.3% of the 20-period average (46,818,468), suggesting reduced participation. Low volume during a bounce can indicate a lack of strong buying conviction.

Assessment

The daily chart shows a stock in a corrective phase attempting to stabilize. The bounce above SMA20 and the bullish MACD crossover are early positives. However, the price remains well below SMA50 and SMA200, and volume is below average. The RSI near 50 provides no clear directional edge. The critical near-term test is whether MSFT can reclaim the SMA50 at 402.24. A failure to hold above SMA20 (380.26) would suggest the bounce is fading.

Weekly (July 6, 2026 week)

Trend
Mixed with bearish lean. Price at 385.10 is below SMA20 (398.65) and SMA50 (450.07) but slightly above SMA200 (383.22). The SMA200 is flat to slightly sloping, suggesting the long-term trend is being tested. The close near SMA200 makes this a critical level to watch.
Momentum
Bearish. RSI14 at 42.36 is in bearish territory below 50. MACD at -14.03 is below the signal line at -13.86 with a near-zero histogram at -0.17, indicating waning bearish momentum but no confirmed bullish crossover yet.
Volatility
Elevated. ATR14 at 28.88 (7.50% of price) reflects wider weekly ranges consistent with the corrective environment. Bollinger Bands (352.54 to 444.75) show price in the lower half of the range, near the middle boundary.
Volume
Below average. Weekly volume of 145,158,100 is 80.2% of the 20-week average (181,022,550), indicating reduced participation in the selloff, which can be interpreted as a lack of panic selling.

Assessment

The weekly chart highlights a critical juncture. Price is testing the SMA200 at 383.22, a level that has historically acted as long-term support during bull markets. The RSI at 42.36 does not yet indicate oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside. The MACD histogram at near zero (-0.17) suggests bearish momentum is exhausted but has not yet turned positive. The weekly structure favors caution until a clear catalyst emerges to push MSFT back above SMA20 (398.65).

Key indicators

MSFT Key Technical Indicators

RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.

IndicatorDailyWeekly
RSI (14)47.5542.36
MACD (12, 26, 9)-4.10 / -6.62 / 2.52-14.03 / -13.86 / -0.17
ATR (14)11.83 (3.07%)28.88 (7.50%)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)358.30 - 402.21352.54 - 444.75
SMA (20)380.26398.65
SMA (50)402.24450.07
SMA (200)439.52383.22

Price structure

MSFT Price Structure and Returns

Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.

MetricDailyWeekly
Current Price384.93385.10
1-Period Return-1.55%-1.38%
5-Period Return-1.01%-7.58%
20-Period Return-1.49%-2.84%
60-Period Return-8.21%-14.55%
252-Period Return-22.91%+35.44%
52-Week Low349.20349.20
52-Week High551.05551.05
52-Week Position17.70%17.79%

Key levels

MSFT Support and Resistance Levels

Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.

LevelDailyWeekly
20-Period High401.75466.32
20-Period Low349.20349.20
60-Period High466.32551.05
60-Period Low349.20349.20

Scenarios

MSFT Technical Scenarios

Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.

Bullish

Trigger

Price breaks and holds above SMA50 at 402.24 with increasing volume.

Invalidation

Price falls below the 52-week low at 349.20.

What to watch

MACD histogram staying positive and rising; RSI climbing above 50; weekly MACD confirming a crossover.

Range-Bound

Trigger

Price oscillates between 349.20 support and SMA50 at 402.24 resistance.

Invalidation

A decisive break of either boundary with volume confirmation.

What to watch

RSI hovering between 40 and 60; volume staying below average; MACD histogram near zero.

Bearish

Trigger

Price breaks below the 52-week low at 349.20 with increasing downside volume.

Invalidation

Price reclaims SMA50 (402.24) and holds above it.

What to watch

MACD histogram turning negative again; RSI falling below 40; weekly close below SMA200 (383.22).

Methodology

Methodology and Limitations

This technical analysis uses adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). The daily analysis covers approximately 2 years (501 completed bars) ending July 14, 2026. The weekly analysis covers approximately 5 years (261 completed bars) ending the week of July 6, 2026. Prices are adjusted for dividends and stock splits using the adjusted close/raw close ratio. Volume data is from the primary source and may not match other data providers. Technical indicators include SMA, RSI, MACD, ATR, and Bollinger Bands using standard parameters. Key levels are identified from recent swing highs and lows. Technical analysis studies historical price patterns and does not constitute investment advice. It should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.

Frequently Asked Questions

This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Data sourced from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). Data cutoffs: daily July 14, 2026, weekly July 6, 2026 week. Generated July 15, 2026.