Risk of Ruin Simulator
Run Monte Carlo simulations to see how often your account would hit zero. Set win rate, risk per trade, and reward-to-risk ratio; view ruin probability and sample account curves.
More simulations = more accurate ruin %. 5,000–10,000 is usually enough.
What is the Risk of Ruin Simulator?
The Risk of Ruin Simulator uses a Monte Carlo approach to estimate how often your trading account would go to zero under your chosen assumptions. Unlike a single formula (e.g. Risk of Ruin calculator), it runs thousands of random sequences of wins and losses. Each "path" is one possible future; the percentage of paths that hit zero is your simulated probability of ruin.
How to Use This Simulator
- Win rate (%): Percentage of trades that are winners (e.g. 50 for 50%).
- Risk per trade (%): Share of current balance risked per trade (e.g. 2 for 2%).
- Reward / risk ratio: When you win, profit as a multiple of the amount risked (e.g. 1.5 means you make 1.5× your risk per win).
- Number of trades per path: How many trades each simulated path runs (e.g. 100 or 200).
- Starting balance & number of simulations: Initial account size and how many paths to run (5,000–10,000 is usually enough for stable ruin %).
- Run simulation: Results show ruin % and sample account curves so you can see the spread of outcomes.
Why Use a Monte Carlo Simulator?
Formula-based risk of ruin gives one number; Monte Carlo shows the full distribution of paths. You can see how often accounts blow up, how much paths vary, and how sensitive results are to win rate and risk size. It runs entirely in your browser—no sign-up and no data sent to any server.
Frequently asked questions
What is the Risk of Ruin Simulator?
The Risk of Ruin Simulator runs Monte Carlo simulations: thousands of random sequences of wins and losses based on your win rate and reward/risk ratio. The percentage of paths where the account hits zero is your simulated probability of ruin. Results are shown as a ruin percentage and sample account curves.
How is it different from the Risk of Ruin Calculator?
The Risk of Ruin Calculator uses a single formula (e.g. Balsara-style) to give one number. The simulator runs many random paths so you see the distribution of outcomes and how often accounts actually hit zero under your assumptions. Both are useful: the calculator is instant; the simulator shows variance and path behavior.
How many simulations should I run?
5,000–10,000 simulations usually give a stable ruin percentage. More simulations (e.g. 20,000) can smooth the result further but take longer. Fewer than 2,000 may be noisy.
Is this tool free and private?
Yes. The simulator runs entirely in your browser. No data is sent to any server and no sign-up is required.
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Turn Simulations Into Real Edge
After checking your risk of ruin, build and test strategies with Pineify. Create Pine Script indicators and backtest with proper position sizing—so your live trading matches your simulation assumptions.