Real-Time Options Data

Free Iron Condor Probability Calculator

Evaluate the probability of profit for any Iron Condor strategy using real-time implied volatility and Greeks. Compare IV-based and Delta-based probability, view expected price ranges, and visualize the log-normal distribution at expiration — completely free.

IV-Based Probability
Real-Time Greeks
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Iron Condor Parameters

What is an Iron Condor Strategy?

An iron condor is a four-leg options strategy that combines a bull put spread and a bear call spread on the same underlying stock with the same expiration date. It is one of the most popular income-generating strategies for traders who expect the stock price to remain within a defined range. The strategy collects a net credit upfront and profits when the stock stays between the two short strikes at expiration.

The four legs of an iron condor are: buy an out-of-the-money put (lowest strike), sell a closer-to-the-money put, sell an out-of-the-money call, and buy a further out-of-the-money call (highest strike). The two short options generate premium income, while the two long options cap your maximum risk on both sides.

How to Use This Iron Condor Calculator

  1. 1

    Enter a Stock Ticker

    Type the ticker symbol (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, SPY) and click "Load Options Chain" to fetch real-time put and call options data.

  2. 2

    Select an Expiration Date

    Choose from available expiration dates. The calculator shows days to expiration (DTE) for each date to help you pick the right time horizon.

  3. 3

    Choose Your Four Legs

    Select strikes for each leg: Buy Put (lowest), Sell Put, Sell Call, Buy Call (highest). The calculator auto-selects the nearest OTM strikes as a starting point.

  4. 4

    Set Number of Contracts

    Enter how many contracts you want to trade. Each contract covers 100 shares of the underlying stock.

  5. 5

    Analyze Results

    Review max profit, max loss, breakeven points, probability of profit, and the interactive payoff diagram. Adjust strikes to optimize your risk/reward profile.

Key Metrics Explained

Net Credit

The total premium received when entering the trade. Calculated as (Sell Put Premium + Sell Call Premium) - (Buy Put Premium + Buy Call Premium) per share, times 100 shares per contract.

Maximum Profit

Equal to the net credit received. Achieved when the stock price stays between the two short strikes at expiration and all options expire worthless.

Maximum Loss

(Width of wider spread - Net Credit) times 100 times Contracts. Occurs when the stock moves beyond either long strike at expiration.

Breakeven Points

Lower BE = Sell Put Strike - Net Credit. Upper BE = Sell Call Strike + Net Credit. The stock must stay between these prices for the trade to be profitable.

Probability of Profit (Delta)

Estimated using the delta of the short strikes. Approximated as 1 - |Short Put Delta| - |Short Call Delta|. Higher POP means a wider profit zone.

Probability of Profit (IV)

Calculated using a log-normal distribution model based on the average implied volatility of the short strikes. Computes the probability that the stock price at expiration falls between the short put and short call strikes.

Expected Range (1 SD)

The one-standard-deviation price range at expiration, derived from the average IV of the short strikes. Approximately 68% of the time, the stock price will land within this range.

Risk/Reward Ratio

Max Loss divided by Max Profit. A lower ratio means better risk/reward. Typical iron condors have ratios between 2:1 and 4:1.

Why Use Our Iron Condor Calculator?

Dual Probability Methods

Compare IV-based (log-normal distribution) and Delta-based probability of profit side by side for deeper insight into your strategy.

Real-Time Greeks & IV

Fetches live options chain data with Delta, Gamma, Theta, Vega, and implied volatility for every strike.

Price Distribution Chart

Visualize the expected log-normal price distribution at expiration with profit and loss zones highlighted, plus breakeven and short strike reference lines.

Payoff Diagram

Interactive P/L chart showing profit and loss at every price point at expiration, with breakeven and current price reference lines.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is an iron condor?

An iron condor is a neutral options strategy that profits when the underlying stock stays within a range. It involves selling an out-of-the-money put spread and call spread simultaneously, collecting premium from both sides.

How do I calculate iron condor profit and loss?

Maximum profit = Net premium received. Maximum loss = Width of spread - Net premium. Breakeven points: Lower = Short put strike - Net premium, Upper = Short call strike + Net premium.

When should I use an iron condor?

Use iron condors when you expect low volatility and the stock to trade sideways. They work best in range-bound markets, after volatility spikes (when premium is high), and on stocks with predictable trading ranges.

What are the risks of iron condors?

Main risks include: large losses if stock moves significantly in either direction, early assignment risk on short options, and difficulty managing positions if the stock approaches your short strikes. Maximum loss is defined but can be substantial.

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